Messages

Forum Index : MLB Betting : Messages Page 1 of 4  1 2 3 4  
Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Bodio's MLB Fri 09/23
bodio send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
bodio
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 7370
Location: Illinois
#1
Posted: 9/23/2011 12:40:51 PM
2011 MLB Record:
192 - 151 @ 56% for +22.35 Units




Fri 09/23

#1: UNDER 7.5 TOR/TBR -115

My model has this one at 6.1 total runs and 8 would be needed to lose this one. Price is in a very good form right now, and he's coming off a game where he only threw 78 pitched due to getting hit by a line-drive in the chest. He should be very 'fresh' in this one. One thing about Price is that he is lethal against lefties. His 3.14 xFIP against left-handers is one of the best in the league (it's 3.29 against righties which is also spectacular but his overal 3.91 against right-handers in his career is average). Well, Blue Jays have a number of left-handers in their lineup: Thames, Lind, Johnson, Rasmus, Loewen, Cooper. I expect at least 5 of these players to start today. This is in part a reason why Price is 9-1 with a 1.99 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP against the Jays in his career. It also helps that the Jays are averaging only 3.4 rpg in their last 5, getting double-digits in hits only once in that span. Opposite Price is Morrow. He's a bit of a 'wild-card' as he is hit-or-miss. I like the fact that he's coming off a very dominant performance against the Yankees in his last start, holding New York to only 4 hits and 0 ER's in 8 innings of work. That was definitely a gem! He's been a bit inconsistent against the Rays this year but overall has a 2.86 ERA and 1.04 WHIP against them. Morrow is on the road for this one where his ERA is 3 runs lower than at home and in his last 3 starts at Tampa he's allowed only 5 ER's on 11 hits in 17.1 innings of work. I like him to pitch well in this one.

The O/U is 24-46 in Tampa's home games this year, 2-5 in Rays' last 7 games, 5-7 in Morrow's 'away' starts, and 5-10 in Price's home starts. I like the UNDER in this one.

#2: Los Angeles Dodgers -115

Let's get a couple of interesting trends out of the way first:

* Dodgers are 80-77 (51%) on the season while Padres are 68-89 (43%)
* Dodgers are 36-38 (49%) on the road, 16th best in the majors while Padres are 32-43 (43%) at home, 5th worst.
* Dodgers are 55-52 (51%) in night games while Padres are 36-66 (35%) in the same scenario
* As a road favorite in the -100 to -125 range Dodgers are 10-6 (63%) this year, while as home dogs in this range Padres are 8-18 (31%)
* Dodgers are 14-7 (67%) in September while Padres are 8-11 (42%) in this month
* Dodgers are 22-21 (51%) against left-handed starters while Padres are 19-29 (40%) against them
* Dodgers are 11-4 (73%) against the Padres while Padres are....well, 4-11 of course against LAD :)

I think you get the point. I'm not much of 'trends' guy since I feel most of them are completely meaningless as one could use infinite number of irrelevant variables to create one to fit their needs. But the trends above do show one thing: Dodgers are a significantly better team this year than Padres. At the same time, Dodgers are playing much better 'baseball' at the current moment.

Comparing the actual players in this game, we have Lilly going against LeBlanc. Lilly has quietly put together a solid season, especially his last 10 starts. He hasn't given up more than 3 ER's in any of those and has been fairly efficient in the process. He's still a fly-ball pitcher but in a 'pitcher's' park like Petco that shouldn't be a problem. Lilly is 9-4 against the Padres in his career with a 2.52 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. I like him to pitch well today against a Padres team that is the worst offensive squad in the majors over the last month or so. (heck, the whole year!)

LeBlanc is coming into this game with a 5.07 ERA and a mediocre 1.46 K/BB ratio. His advanced stats are very poor in part due to a 34% LD-rate, one of the worst in the league. He is 1-5 against the Dodgers life-time with a 5.21 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. Los Angeles is actually one of the hottest teams offensively over the last month in the majors (#7 to be exact) and I expect them to have success in this one as they've been averaging 7.2 rpg in their last 6.

I like Dodgers to win this one. Oh and since I started this write-up with a trend, let me end it with a trend as well:

* Dodgers are 18-7 (72%) this year when playing on a Friday while Padres are 7-17 (29%) in the same scenario!

Talk about a "meaningless trend" eh? :) Well, Dodgers are 215-176 (55%) in their last 391 Friday games while Padres are 175-212 (45%) in their last 387 Fridays. Hmmm... That's a fairly large sample-size. Maybe this trend is not that "meaningless" after all :)

_________________

'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
'10 NBA: 151-99 @ 60% for +$42,100
'10 NBAP: 30-26 @ 54% for +$1,400
'10 NHL: 18-9 @ 67% for +$6,175
'10 NHLP: 16-7 @ 70% for +$5,575

-----------------------------------
TOTAL: 415-277 @ 60% for +$107,580




quote
bodio send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
bodio
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 7370
Location: Illinois
#2
Posted: 9/23/2011 12:41:17 PM
Atlanta Braves 88-68 (56%) @ Washington Nationals 76-79 (49%)

T. Hudson, starting for Atlanta Braves, has a FIP of 3.45 (#48 in MLB), xFIP of 3.51 (#37 in MLB), and tERA of 3.7 (#46 in MLB), with a BABIP of .267, LOB% of 73%, and E-F of -0.26. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.73, with a WHIP of 1.13, and opponent BA of .228. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 18%, GB%: 57%, FB%: 25% for a 2.23 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 9%.

S. Strasburg, starting for Washington Nationals, has a FIP of 1.44 (#1 in MLB), xFIP of 2.88 (#6 in MLB), and tERA of 2.12 (#1 in MLB), with a BABIP of .231, LOB% of 78%, and E-F of -0.16. He has a K/BB ratio of 11, with a WHIP of 0.64, and opponent BA of .18. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 24%, GB%: 34%, FB%: 42% for a 0.81 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 0%.

Atlanta Braves have the #1 bullpen, #22 offense, and are rated #25 in fielding. They have a road record of 41-37 (53%), ranked #10 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.

Washington Nationals have the #11 bullpen, #23 offense, and are rated #22 in fielding. They have a home record of 42-35 (55%), ranked #13 in MLB and have Won 5 in a row.



Odds: ATL +110 (48%) WSN -117 (54%) O/U = 6.5

Lean: Nats
=======================================

Cincinnati Reds 76-80 (49%) @ Pittsburgh Pirates 69-87 (44%)

E. Volquez, starting for Cincinnati Reds, has a FIP of 5.41 (#230 in MLB), xFIP of 4.18 (#135 in MLB), and tERA of 5.84 (#220 in MLB), with a BABIP of .294, LOB% of 69%, and E-F of 0.46. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.52, with a WHIP of 1.61, and opponent BA of .252. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 18%, GB%: 52%, FB%: 30% for a 1.72 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 21%.

J. Locke, starting for Pittsburgh Pirates, has a FIP of 5.39 (#228 in MLB), xFIP of 6.49 (#258 in MLB), and tERA of 9.1 (#259 in MLB), with a BABIP of .323, LOB% of 65%, and E-F of 1.36. He has a K/BB ratio of 0.17, with a WHIP of 2, and opponent BA of .313. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 38%, GB%: 38%, FB%: 24% for a 1.57 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 0%.

Cincinnati Reds have the #25 bullpen, #10 offense, and are rated #3 in fielding. They have a road record of 34-41 (45%), ranked #19 in MLB and have Won 2 in a row.

Pittsburgh Pirates have the #18 bullpen, #26 offense, and are rated #19 in fielding. They have a home record of 34-44 (44%), ranked #25 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.



Odds: CIN -126 (56%) PIT +119 (46%) O/U = 9

Lean: OVER
=======================================

Philadelphia Phillies 98-58 (63%) @ New York Mets 74-82 (47%)

C. Hamels, starting for Philadelphia Phillies, has a FIP of 2.95 (#14 in MLB), xFIP of 2.98 (#8 in MLB), and tERA of 2.93 (#6 in MLB), with a BABIP of .256, LOB% of 78%, and E-F of -0.16. He has a K/BB ratio of 4.54, with a WHIP of 0.98, and opponent BA of .21. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 15%, GB%: 52%, FB%: 32% for a 1.61 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 9%.

R. Dickey, starting for New York Mets, has a FIP of 3.82 (#87 in MLB), xFIP of 3.96 (#104 in MLB), and tERA of 3.72 (#48 in MLB), with a BABIP of .282, LOB% of 75%, and E-F of -0.46. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.43, with a WHIP of 1.25, and opponent BA of .252. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 16%, GB%: 51%, FB%: 33% for a 1.55 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 9%.

Philadelphia Phillies have the #21 bullpen, #14 offense, and are rated #18 in fielding. They have a road record of 46-29 (61%), ranked #1 in MLB and have Lost 6 in a row.

New York Mets have the #14 bullpen, #10 offense, and are rated #30 in fielding. They have a home record of 31-44 (41%), ranked #27 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.



Odds: PHI -135 (57%) NYM +127 (44%) O/U = 7

Lean: Phillies
=======================================

Colorado Rockies 70-86 (45%) @ Houston Astros 54-102 (35%)

D. Pomeranz, starting for Colorado Rockies, has a FIP of 3.11 (#19 in MLB), xFIP of 3.81 (#81 in MLB), and tERA of 2.92 (#5 in MLB), with a BABIP of .214, LOB% of 82%, and E-F of -1.42. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.75, with a WHIP of 0.94, and opponent BA of .171. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 11%, GB%: 67%, FB%: 22% for a 3 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 0%.

B. Myers, starting for Houston Astros, has a FIP of 4.35 (#151 in MLB), xFIP of 3.79 (#78 in MLB), and tERA of 4.48 (#130 in MLB), with a BABIP of .289, LOB% of 71%, and E-F of 0.04. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.69, with a WHIP of 1.31, and opponent BA of .263. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 18%, GB%: 47%, FB%: 35% for a 1.36 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 14%.

Colorado Rockies have the #10 bullpen, #7 offense, and are rated #20 in fielding. They have a road record of 32-43 (43%), ranked #23 in MLB and have Lost 8 in a row.

Houston Astros have the #24 bullpen, #24 offense, and are rated #23 in fielding. They have a home record of 29-46 (39%), ranked #30 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.



Odds: COL +122 (45%) HOU -130 (57%) O/U = 8.5

Lean: Rockies
=======================================

Florida Marlins 71-85 (46%) @ Milwaukee Brewers 91-65 (58%)

C. Volstad, starting for Florida Marlins, has a FIP of 4.43 (#157 in MLB), xFIP of 3.71 (#69 in MLB), and tERA of 5.02 (#178 in MLB), with a BABIP of .316, LOB% of 68%, and E-F of 0.7. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.28, with a WHIP of 1.47, and opponent BA of .286. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 20%, GB%: 52%, FB%: 28% for a 1.84 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 16%.

Y. Gallardo, starting for Milwaukee Brewers, has a FIP of 3.71 (#69 in MLB), xFIP of 3.24 (#17 in MLB), and tERA of 3.69 (#45 in MLB), with a BABIP of .288, LOB% of 75%, and E-F of -0.11. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.32, with a WHIP of 1.23, and opponent BA of .24. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 17%, GB%: 47%, FB%: 36% for a 1.29 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 13%.

Florida Marlins have the #8 bullpen, #20 offense, and are rated #17 in fielding. They have a road record of 41-40 (51%), ranked #13 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.

Milwaukee Brewers have the #3 bullpen, #8 offense, and are rated #8 in fielding. They have a home record of 52-23 (69%), ranked #1 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.



Odds: FLA +219 (31%) MIL -235 (70%) O/U = 8

Lean: Marlins
=======================================

quote
D-Town send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
D-Town
Participation Meter
Legend
Joined: Jul 2002
Posts: 120365
Location: Michigan
#3
Posted: 9/23/2011 12:41:20 PM
Good luck Bodio.  
quote
bodio send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
bodio
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 7370
Location: Illinois
#4
Posted: 9/23/2011 12:41:34 PM
Chicago Cubs 69-87 (44%) @ St Louis Cardinals 86-70 (55%)

R. Dempster, starting for Chicago Cubs, has a FIP of 3.78 (#83 in MLB), xFIP of 3.63 (#58 in MLB), and tERA of 4.41 (#115 in MLB), with a BABIP of .324, LOB% of 71%, and E-F of 0.84. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.49, with a WHIP of 1.42, and opponent BA of .266. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 21%, GB%: 44%, FB%: 35% for a 1.25 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 11%.

C. Carpenter, starting for St Louis Cardinals, has a FIP of 3.16 (#26 in MLB), xFIP of 3.37 (#29 in MLB), and tERA of 3.99 (#74 in MLB), with a BABIP of .319, LOB% of 73%, and E-F of 0.5. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.37, with a WHIP of 1.3, and opponent BA of .268. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 22%, GB%: 50%, FB%: 28% for a 1.78 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 11%.

Chicago Cubs have the #17 bullpen, #14 offense, and are rated #21 in fielding. They have a road record of 30-45 (40%), ranked #24 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.

St Louis Cardinals have the #12 bullpen, #5 offense, and are rated #26 in fielding. They have a home record of 43-35 (55%), ranked #12 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.



Odds: CHC +196 (34%) STL -210 (68%) O/U = 7.5

Lean: Cubs
=======================================

Los Angeles Dodgers 78-77 (50%) @ San Diego Padres 68-88 (44%)

T. Lilly, starting for Los Angeles Dodgers, has a FIP of 4.35 (#151 in MLB), xFIP of 4.04 (#121 in MLB), and tERA of 4.45 (#126 in MLB), with a BABIP of .264, LOB% of 73%, and E-F of -0.09. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.04, with a WHIP of 1.19, and opponent BA of .238. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 20%, GB%: 34%, FB%: 46% for a 0.73 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 11%.

W. LeBlanc, starting for San Diego Padres, has a FIP of 4.23 (#131 in MLB), xFIP of 4.55 (#188 in MLB), and tERA of 5.92 (#224 in MLB), with a BABIP of .317, LOB% of 68%, and E-F of 0.84. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.46, with a WHIP of 1.54, and opponent BA of .286. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 34%, GB%: 31%, FB%: 36% for a 0.85 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 8%.

Los Angeles Dodgers have the #6 bullpen, #21 offense, and are rated #12 in fielding. They have a road record of 36-38 (49%), ranked #16 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.

San Diego Padres have the #9 bullpen, #29 offense, and are rated #9 in fielding. They have a home record of 32-43 (43%), ranked #26 in MLB and have Won 3 in a row.



Odds: LAD -115 (53%) SDP +108 (48%) O/U = 6.5

Lean: Dodgers
=======================================

Baltimore Orioles 66-90 (42%) @ Detroit Tigers 90-66 (58%)

A. Simon, starting for Baltimore Orioles, has a FIP of 4.49 (#165 in MLB), xFIP of 4.21 (#142 in MLB), and tERA of 5.17 (#191 in MLB), with a BABIP of .314, LOB% of 69%, and E-F of 0.56. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.03, with a WHIP of 1.46, and opponent BA of .28. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 20%, GB%: 42%, FB%: 38% for a 1.12 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 10%.

R. Porcello, starting for Detroit Tigers, has a FIP of 4.17 (#126 in MLB), xFIP of 4.07 (#124 in MLB), and tERA of 4.48 (#130 in MLB), with a BABIP of .315, LOB% of 68%, and E-F of 0.62. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.23, with a WHIP of 1.41, and opponent BA of .289. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 19%, GB%: 51%, FB%: 31% for a 1.67 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 10%.

Baltimore Orioles have the #25 bullpen, #13 offense, and are rated #29 in fielding. They have a road record of 29-49 (37%), ranked #28 in MLB and have Won 3 in a row.

Detroit Tigers have the #27 bullpen, #4 offense, and are rated #16 in fielding. They have a home record of 45-30 (60%), ranked #7 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.



Odds: BAL +153 (40%) DET -163 (62%) O/U = 9.5

Lean: Orioles
=======================================

Boston Red Sox 88-68 (56%) @ New York Yankees 95-61 (61%)

J. Lester, starting for Boston Red Sox, has a FIP of 3.72 (#72 in MLB), xFIP of 3.59 (#44 in MLB), and tERA of 3.79 (#53 in MLB), with a BABIP of .28, LOB% of 80%, and E-F of -0.57. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.49, with a WHIP of 1.22, and opponent BA of .227. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 16%, GB%: 50%, FB%: 34% for a 1.46 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 11%.

F. Garcia, starting for New York Yankees, has a FIP of 4.18 (#127 in MLB), xFIP of 4.32 (#156 in MLB), and tERA of 4.98 (#175 in MLB), with a BABIP of .292, LOB% of 77%, and E-F of -0.44. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.14, with a WHIP of 1.35, and opponent BA of .264. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 23%, GB%: 36%, FB%: 41% for a 0.88 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 9%.

Boston Red Sox have the #7 bullpen, #1 offense, and are rated #2 in fielding. They have a road record of 43-32 (57%), ranked #3 in MLB and have Lost 2 in a row.

New York Yankees have the #5 bullpen, #2 offense, and are rated #6 in fielding. They have a home record of 50-28 (64%), ranked #3 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.



Odds: BOS -145 (59%) NYY +136 (42%) O/U = 9

Lean: Yankees
=======================================

Minnesota Twins 60-95 (39%) @ Cleveland Indians 77-78 (50%)

C. Pavano, starting for Minnesota Twins, has a FIP of 4.14 (#123 in MLB), xFIP of 4.15 (#133 in MLB), and tERA of 4.39 (#113 in MLB), with a BABIP of .308, LOB% of 67%, and E-F of 0.26. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.46, with a WHIP of 1.38, and opponent BA of .291. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 18%, GB%: 50%, FB%: 31% for a 1.62 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 10%.

J. Masterson, starting for Cleveland Indians, has a FIP of 3.13 (#22 in MLB), xFIP of 3.53 (#39 in MLB), and tERA of 3.42 (#28 in MLB), with a BABIP of .303, LOB% of 73%, and E-F of 0.03. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.64, with a WHIP of 1.26, and opponent BA of .254. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 18%, GB%: 55%, FB%: 27% for a 2.06 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 6%.

Minnesota Twins have the #30 bullpen, #27 offense, and are rated #11 in fielding. They have a road record of 29-48 (38%), ranked #25 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.

Cleveland Indians have the #21 bullpen, #18 offense, and are rated #28 in fielding. They have a home record of 41-36 (53%), ranked #14 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.



Odds: MIN +169 (37%) CLE -180 (64%) O/U = 8.5

Lean: Indians
=======================================

quote
bodio send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
bodio
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 7370
Location: Illinois
#5
Posted: 9/23/2011 12:41:41 PM
Toronto Blue Jays 79-77 (51%) @ Tampa Bay Rays 86-70 (55%)

B. Morrow, starting for Toronto Blue Jays, has a FIP of 3.61 (#59 in MLB), xFIP of 3.49 (#36 in MLB), and tERA of 4.1 (#84 in MLB), with a BABIP of .303, LOB% of 63%, and E-F of 1.37. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.12, with a WHIP of 1.29, and opponent BA of .238. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 23%, GB%: 36%, FB%: 42% for a 0.85 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 10%.

D. Price, starting for Tampa Bay Rays, has a FIP of 3.16 (#26 in MLB), xFIP of 3.25 (#19 in MLB), and tERA of 3.31 (#24 in MLB), with a BABIP of .281, LOB% of 75%, and E-F of 0.19. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.59, with a WHIP of 1.12, and opponent BA of .225. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 19%, GB%: 45%, FB%: 36% for a 1.24 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 9%.

Toronto Blue Jays have the #20 bullpen, #9 offense, and are rated #24 in fielding. They have a road record of 37-38 (49%), ranked #15 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.

Tampa Bay Rays have the #28 bullpen, #14 offense, and are rated #4 in fielding. They have a home record of 42-33 (56%), ranked #10 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.



Odds: TOR +170 (37%) TBR -181 (64%) O/U = 7.5

Lean: UNDER
=======================================

Seattle Mariners 66-90 (42%) @ Texas Rangers 90-66 (58%)

A. Vasquez, starting for Seattle Mariners, has a FIP of 8.22 (#257 in MLB), xFIP of 5.28 (#240 in MLB), and tERA of 8.71 (#258 in MLB), with a BABIP of .295, LOB% of 53%, and E-F of 0.03. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.38, with a WHIP of 1.79, and opponent BA of .324. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 25%, GB%: 36%, FB%: 39% for a 0.92 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 24%.

M. Harrison, starting for Texas Rangers, has a FIP of 3.55 (#57 in MLB), xFIP of 3.81 (#81 in MLB), and tERA of 4.18 (#92 in MLB), with a BABIP of .3, LOB% of 73%, and E-F of -0.09. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.24, with a WHIP of 1.32, and opponent BA of .259. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 21%, GB%: 47%, FB%: 32% for a 1.46 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 8%.

Seattle Mariners have the #19 bullpen, #30 offense, and are rated #15 in fielding. They have a road record of 28-47 (37%), ranked #26 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.

Texas Rangers have the #29 bullpen, #3 offense, and are rated #7 in fielding. They have a home record of 49-29 (63%), ranked #4 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.



Odds: SEA +251 (28%) TEX -270 (73%) O/U = 10

Lean: OVER
=======================================

Kansas City Royals 68-88 (44%) @ Chicago White Sox 76-80 (49%)

B. Chen, starting for Kansas City Royals, has a FIP of 4.49 (#165 in MLB), xFIP of 4.68 (#200 in MLB), and tERA of 4.86 (#165 in MLB), with a BABIP of .289, LOB% of 73%, and E-F of -0.35. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.89, with a WHIP of 1.36, and opponent BA of .263. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 20%, GB%: 35%, FB%: 45% for a 0.79 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 9%.

Z. Stewart, starting for Chicago White Sox, has a FIP of 4 (#109 in MLB), xFIP of 3.8 (#79 in MLB), and tERA of 4.98 (#175 in MLB), with a BABIP of .351, LOB% of 71%, and E-F of 1.04. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.31, with a WHIP of 1.53, and opponent BA of .312. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 22%, GB%: 51%, FB%: 27% for a 1.86 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 13%.

Kansas City Royals have the #21 bullpen, #6 offense, and are rated #14 in fielding. They have a road record of 28-47 (37%), ranked #26 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.

Chicago White Sox have the #4 bullpen, #19 offense, and are rated #13 in fielding. They have a home record of 33-42 (44%), ranked #24 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.



Odds: KCR +119 (46%) CHW -126 (56%) O/U = 9

Lean: White Sox
=======================================

Oakland Athletics 70-86 (45%) @ LAA Angels 85-71 (55%)

G. Gonzalez, starting for Oakland Athletics, has a FIP of 3.7 (#67 in MLB), xFIP of 3.76 (#74 in MLB), and tERA of 3.81 (#56 in MLB), with a BABIP of .298, LOB% of 76%, and E-F of -0.37. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.1, with a WHIP of 1.37, and opponent BA of .238. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 19%, GB%: 48%, FB%: 33% for a 1.43 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 9%.

j. Weaver, starting for LAA Angels, has a FIP of 3.14 (#23 in MLB), xFIP of 3.82 (#85 in MLB), and tERA of 3.15 (#12 in MLB), with a BABIP of .252, LOB% of 82%, and E-F of -0.72. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.39, with a WHIP of 1.02, and opponent BA of .211. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 19%, GB%: 32%, FB%: 49% for a 0.66 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 6%.

Oakland Athletics have the #13 bullpen, #25 offense, and are rated #27 in fielding. They have a road record of 27-48 (36%), ranked #29 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.

LAA Angels have the #15 bullpen, #14 offense, and are rated #5 in fielding. They have a home record of 44-31 (59%), ranked #8 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.



Odds: OAK +173 (37%) LAA -185 (65%) O/U = 7

Lean: none
=======================================
quote
KktdocT
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
KktdocT
Participation Meter
Covers Rehab
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 64310
Location: United Kingdom
#6
Posted: 9/23/2011 12:41:51 PM
GL.
quote
afgking4life send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
afgking4life
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 292
Location:
#7
Posted: 9/23/2011 12:46:13 PM
bodio,
thank you for the great picks last night but which do you believe is the safest play, LAD or the Under? 
quote
afgking4life send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
afgking4life
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 292
Location:
#8
Posted: 9/23/2011 12:49:23 PM
As well, do you not wait to finalize your wagers until you see the lineups for the day? Or is that not as important for you?

Because, I seem to always wait for the lineups but the line is always moved either upwards or downwards by that time....

what is your advice for this? 
quote
bodio send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
bodio
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 7370
Location: Illinois
#9
Posted: 9/23/2011 12:52:35 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by afgking4life:

bodio,
thank you for the great picks last night but which do you believe is the safest play, LAD or the Under? 

"Safest play" eh?  Well, there really is NEVER a safe play from my perspective.  Any and every play can and does lose. 

I love them both.  Not really sure...flip a coin?  :)
quote
Top_5_Guy send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
Top_5_Guy
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 167
Location: Ontario
#10
Posted: 9/23/2011 12:53:56 PM
Thanks for all you do, it is greatly appreciated by many. More leans than usual today - is that just based on line value that you find late in the season when some teams have clinched, some are fighting to get in, some are looking at young prospects, etc.?
quote
bodio send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
bodio
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 7370
Location: Illinois
#11
Posted: 9/23/2011 12:56:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by afgking4life:

As well, do you not wait to finalize your wagers until you see the lineups for the day? Or is that not as important for you?

Because, I seem to always wait for the lineups but the line is always moved either upwards or downwards by that time....

what is your advice for this? 

It depends on each individual situation.  Sometimes it's pretty easy to tell what lineups will be in there.  I'm pretty confident I know the lineups for TOR and TBR today, as well as for the Dodgers.   Padres have some injuries so not sure who will start/sit, but it doesn't really matter with a team like that.  If a few of their 'key' guys sit, then it's a bonus.  If not it's not a big deal.

Games like yesterday with Rays/Yankees depend on lineups so I wait for those, even though it costs in terms of 'higher juice' (sometimes 'lower' depending on what team you're looking to back but you can predict that as well).

Most of the time you get better odds if you can predict a lineup early without waiting for the actuals.  Once those come out, the books adjust the odds and you might lose out on some 'value'.  
quote
bodio send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
bodio
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 7370
Location: Illinois
#12
Posted: 9/23/2011 12:58:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Top_5_Guy:

Thanks for all you do, it is greatly appreciated by many. More leans than usual today - is that just based on line value that you find late in the season when some teams have clinched, some are fighting to get in, some are looking at young prospects, etc.?

Yup, exactly!  Tons of 'odds value' out there.  A ton of teams are over-inflated based on 'playoff motivation' factor which (I know I sound like a broken record) is not as big of a 'factor' in baseball.  I'm not playing any of those today, but it's not smart to back the heavy 'favorites' also.  
quote
DDH420
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
DDH420
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 14225
Location: Alberta
#13
Posted: 9/23/2011 12:58:52 PM
I can't trust Morrow he's either great or horrible often in the same game. I am glad to see you leaning NATS though. I took them ML-120 & RL-1.5 +190

Oh and we missed a week but for the record the p.o.w is EDM +1 at home to the AL's tonight. I hit the BC game a few weeks back so pretty sure that got me back in the +$ at 4-3 +0.7

Thanx for all the hard work buddy
quote
afgking4life send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
afgking4life
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 292
Location:
#14
Posted: 9/23/2011 12:59:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bodio:


It depends on each individual situation.  Sometimes it's pretty easy to tell what lineups will be in there.  I'm pretty confident I know the lineups for TOR and TBR today, as well as for the Dodgers.   Padres have some injuries so not sure who will start/sit, but it doesn't really matter with a team like that.  If a few of their 'key' guys sit, then it's a bonus.  If not it's not a big deal.

Games like yesterday with Rays/Yankees depend on lineups so I wait for those, even though it costs in terms of 'higher juice' (sometimes 'lower' depending on what team you're looking to back but you can predict that as well).

Most of the time you get better odds if you can predict a lineup early without waiting for the actuals.  Once those come out, the books adjust the odds and you might lose out on some 'value'.  


True, true...so just for jokes, lets see how close your theoretical lineup is to the actual....what is your best guess for both games? 

I am in now ways testing you and your talent but just for fun...
quote
giangho_viet send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
giangho_viet
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Jan 2011
Posts: 727
Location: Florida
#15
Posted: 9/23/2011 1:08:51 PM
Good Luck today Bodio , the Mets yesterday was crazy bro , I was getting so pumped up when I saw bases loaded with just 1 out . I was so glad we were on the right side of the for once .
 Are you working on NFL picks this Sunday Bodio ?
quote
Qncyk1 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Qncyk1
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 1097
Location: Mexico
#16
Posted: 9/23/2011 1:14:16 PM
just locked in the under at 7-5 -120
quote
Quantum_Leap send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
Quantum_Leap
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: May 2010
Posts: 14521
Location: New York
#17
Posted: 9/23/2011 1:17:12 PM
good work. Lean over on Pitt Cincy as well
quote
kRaZeEpLaYa send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
kRaZeEpLaYa
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 350
Location: Ontario
#18
Posted: 9/23/2011 1:17:50 PM
Great analysis again Bodio...you sold me on both plays. GL tonight!
Posted using a mobile device.
quote
bodio send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
bodio
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 7370
Location: Illinois
#19
Posted: 9/23/2011 1:19:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DDH420:

I can't trust Morrow he's either great or horrible often in the same game. I am glad to see you leaning NATS though. I took them ML-120 & RL-1.5 +190

Oh and we missed a week but for the record the p.o.w is EDM +1 at home to the AL's tonight. I hit the BC game a few weeks back so pretty sure that got me back in the +$ at 4-3 +0.7

Thanx for all the hard work buddy

solid.  thanks...EDM +1 it is!  
Good luck buddy
quote
evilelvis send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
evilelvis
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 2852
Location: California
#20
Posted: 9/23/2011 1:23:23 PM

Bodio...thanks as always for ur time and efforts. Here's to a profitable weekwnd to all

Evil Elvis

quote
bodio send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
bodio
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 7370
Location: Illinois
#21
Posted: 9/23/2011 1:35:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by afgking4life:



True, true...so just for jokes, lets see how close your theoretical lineup is to the actual....what is your best guess for both games? 

I am in now ways testing you and your talent but just for fun...

Toronto:  

1. Mike McCoy (R) SS
2. Eric Thames (L) LF
3. Jose Bautista (R) RF
4. Adam Lind (L) 1B
5. Edwin Encarnacion (R) 3B
6. J.P. Arencibia (R) C
7. Kelly Johnson (L) 2B
8. Colby Rasmus (L) CF
9. Wise, Teahen, or even Molina as a DH (one of their weak-hitting righties)
Probably one of the lefties though, either Loewen or Cooper..Really doesn't matter! 

Tampa: 

Probably same lineup as yesterday as it's a 'lefty-heavy' one.  (Morrow's a righty but he's just as good against lefties if not better):

1. Desmond Jennings (R) LF
2. B.J. Upton (R) CF
3. Evan Longoria (R) 3B
4. Matt Joyce (L) RF
5. Johnny Damon (L) DH
6. Ben Zobrist (S) 2B
7. Casey Kotchman (L) 1B
8. John Jaso (L) C
9. Reid Brignac (L) SS

Both Dodgers and Padres you could assume same lineups as last game (unless some Padres players don't play due to injuries which is a 'bonus").  It doesn't really matter with these squads and I'm too lazy to even look it up  :)

quote
bodio send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
bodio
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 7370
Location: Illinois
#22
Posted: 9/23/2011 1:36:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by giangho_viet:

Good Luck today Bodio , the Mets yesterday was crazy bro , I was getting so pumped up when I saw bases loaded with just 1 out . I was so glad we were on the right side of the for once .
 Are you working on NFL picks this Sunday Bodio ?

Yeah...working on some NCAAF as well.  We'lll see if anything qualifies there 
quote
luiko1 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BetJamaica.com |
luiko1
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Apr 2011
Posts: 334
Location: Mexico
#23
Posted: 9/23/2011 1:40:32 PM
GL today men

i like both plays
look for a pitching duel @ tampa and dodgers one of the hottest team right now, big discrepancy on teams,,

i have alot of leans today also,,but want to wait to see line ups,,almost forgot iknow you write this before but i always forgot to save the page jeje to see line ups where do you get?,,,well what you think about this leans

over 9.5 O's/Tigers ,,Under 6.5 Wash/braves,,Under  8 Brew/Fish
Under 8 Astros/Rockies,,,,and Under 8 Indians/Twins not really fan of pavano but indians right now not scares me alot,,,, thanks men!

quote
giangho_viet send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
giangho_viet
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Jan 2011
Posts: 727
Location: Florida
#24
Posted: 9/23/2011 1:44:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bodio:


Yeah...working on some NCAAF as well.  We'lll see if anything qualifies there 
Looking forward too see your football picks bro
quote
jellsbury send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
jellsbury
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 48
Location:
#25
Posted: 9/23/2011 1:46:53 PM
Bodio, LOVE the picks! BOL buddy... Out of curiosity, what would you say after the 2 picks would be your strongest leans? Phils? Indians? Looking @ both of those very closely so would love your thoughts.
quote
Forum Index : MLB Betting : Messages Page 1 of 4  1 2 3 4  
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.