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Bodio's MLB Mon 09/12

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Posted: #1
2011 MLB Record:
184 - 143 @ 56% for +22.62 Units




Mon 09/12

#1: UNDER 8 FLA/ATL -105

I like the way both of these pitchers are playing right now. Beachy had a 2.19 xFIP in August and 7.40 K/BB. Volstad has improved every month going from 4.69 xFIP in April to 3.42 in July to 2.70 in August. His 3.29 K/BB ratio in August was highest of the year. Atlanta is averaging 3.125 rpg in their last 8, while Florida will most likely be missing Stanton (Morrison is questionable) again tonight. My model has 6.9 total runs in this one and it would take 9 for this wager to lose.

Good luck!

_________________

'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
'10 NBA: 151-99 @ 60% for +$42,100
'10 NBAP: 30-26 @ 54% for +$1,400
'10 NHL: 18-9 @ 67% for +$6,175
'10 NHLP: 16-7 @ 70% for +$5,575

-----------------------------------
TOTAL: 415-277 @ 60% for +$107,580




"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned"

 
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Posted: #2
St Louis Cardinals 79-67 (54%) @ Pittsburgh Pirates 66-80 (45%)

K. Lohse, starting for St Louis Cardinals, has a FIP of 3.92 (#97 in MLB), xFIP of 4.12 (#120 in MLB), and tERA of 4.48 (#122 in MLB), with a BABIP of .263, LOB% of 69%, and E-F of -0.2. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.41, with a WHIP of 1.17, and opponent BA of .245. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 22%, GB%: 41%, FB%: 38% for a 1.08 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 8%.

B. Lincoln, starting for Pittsburgh Pirates, has a FIP of 3.57 (#56 in MLB), xFIP of 3.94 (#94 in MLB), and tERA of 3.09 (#12 in MLB), with a BABIP of .211, LOB% of 84%, and E-F of -1.57. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.8, with a WHIP of 1, and opponent BA of .194. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 17%, GB%: 58%, FB%: 25% for a 2.32 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 11%.

St Louis Cardinals have the #15 bullpen, #4 offense, and are rated #26 in fielding. They have a road record of 38-33 (54%), ranked #7 in MLB and have Won 5 in a row.

Pittsburgh Pirates have the #19 bullpen, #26 offense, and are rated #14 in fielding. They have a home record of 33-42 (44%), ranked #25 in MLB and have Lost 3 in a row.



Odds: STL -132 (57%) PIT +124 (45%) O/U = 8

Lean: none
=======================================

Florida Marlins 66-79 (46%) @ Atlanta Braves 84-63 (57%)

C. Volstad, starting for Florida Marlins, has a FIP of 4.63 (#169 in MLB), xFIP of 3.64 (#53 in MLB), and tERA of 5.33 (#181 in MLB), with a BABIP of .319, LOB% of 66%, and E-F of 0.99. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.38, with a WHIP of 1.49, and opponent BA of .29. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 21%, GB%: 51%, FB%: 28% for a 1.79 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 18%.

B. Beachy, starting for Atlanta Braves, has a FIP of 3.42 (#42 in MLB), xFIP of 3.23 (#17 in MLB), and tERA of 3.59 (#37 in MLB), with a BABIP of .289, LOB% of 78%, and E-F of -0.12. He has a K/BB ratio of 4, with a WHIP of 1.15, and opponent BA of .229. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 20%, GB%: 33%, FB%: 47% for a 0.7 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 11%.

Florida Marlins have the #8 bullpen, #19 offense, and are rated #18 in fielding. They have a road record of 38-35 (52%), ranked #11 in MLB and have Won 3 in a row.

Atlanta Braves have the #1 bullpen, #21 offense, and are rated #25 in fielding. They have a home record of 44-28 (61%), ranked #6 in MLB and have Lost 3 in a row.



Odds: FLA +210 (32%) ATL -225 (69%) O/U = 8

Lean: UNDER
=======================================

Washington Nationals 67-77 (47%) @ New York Mets 71-75 (49%)

R. Detwiler, starting for Washington Nationals, has a FIP of 4.57 (#161 in MLB), xFIP of 3.82 (#78 in MLB), and tERA of 5.73 (#206 in MLB), with a BABIP of .294, LOB% of 80%, and E-F of -1.39. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.33, with a WHIP of 1.35, and opponent BA of .274. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 22%, GB%: 48%, FB%: 30% for a 1.59 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 12%.

R. Dickey, starting for New York Mets, has a FIP of 3.98 (#106 in MLB), xFIP of 3.92 (#91 in MLB), and tERA of 3.83 (#59 in MLB), with a BABIP of .284, LOB% of 73%, and E-F of -0.24. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.51, with a WHIP of 1.27, and opponent BA of .255. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 16%, GB%: 52%, FB%: 33% for a 1.58 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 10%.

Washington Nationals have the #15 bullpen, #23 offense, and are rated #17 in fielding. They have a road record of 26-44 (37%), ranked #26 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.

New York Mets have the #19 bullpen, #7 offense, and are rated #29 in fielding. They have a home record of 31-40 (44%), ranked #26 in MLB and have Lost 2 in a row.



Odds: WSN +132 (43%) NYM -140 (58%) O/U = 8

Lean: none
=======================================

Chicago Cubs 64-82 (44%) @ Cincinnati Reds 71-75 (49%)

R. Lopez, starting for Chicago Cubs, has a FIP of 5.24 (#207 in MLB), xFIP of 4.31 (#147 in MLB), and tERA of 6.56 (#225 in MLB), with a BABIP of .308, LOB% of 68%, and E-F of -0.26. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.13, with a WHIP of 1.47, and opponent BA of .299. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 23%, GB%: 42%, FB%: 35% for a 1.19 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 15%.

D. Willis, starting for Cincinnati Reds, has a FIP of 3.96 (#101 in MLB), xFIP of 3.79 (#74 in MLB), and tERA of 4.83 (#153 in MLB), with a BABIP of .313, LOB% of 75%, and E-F of 0.14. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.68, with a WHIP of 1.46, and opponent BA of .27. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 22%, GB%: 57%, FB%: 22% for a 2.63 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 11%.

Chicago Cubs have the #17 bullpen, #16 offense, and are rated #19 in fielding. They have a road record of 29-42 (41%), ranked #23 in MLB and have Won 2 in a row.

Cincinnati Reds have the #13 bullpen, #7 offense, and are rated #4 in fielding. They have a home record of 37-34 (52%), ranked #16 in MLB and have Lost 2 in a row.



Odds: CHC +148 (40%) CIN -157 (61%) O/U = 9.5

Lean: none
=======================================

Philadelphia Phillies 94-49 (66%) @ Houston Astros 49-97 (34%)

R. Oswalt, starting for Philadelphia Phillies, has a FIP of 3.5 (#48 in MLB), xFIP of 4.07 (#114 in MLB), and tERA of 3.74 (#48 in MLB), with a BABIP of .328, LOB% of 74%, and E-F of 0.26. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.7, with a WHIP of 1.41, and opponent BA of .289. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 19%, GB%: 45%, FB%: 36% for a 1.23 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 6%.

B. Myers, starting for Houston Astros, has a FIP of 4.58 (#163 in MLB), xFIP of 3.89 (#86 in MLB), and tERA of 4.66 (#139 in MLB), with a BABIP of .298, LOB% of 70%, and E-F of 0.23. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.51, with a WHIP of 1.37, and opponent BA of .271. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 18%, GB%: 46%, FB%: 36% for a 1.27 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 14%.

Philadelphia Phillies have the #13 bullpen, #10 offense, and are rated #23 in fielding. They have a road record of 45-27 (63%), ranked #1 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.

Houston Astros have the #27 bullpen, #22 offense, and are rated #24 in fielding. They have a home record of 26-45 (37%), ranked #30 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.



Odds: PHI -178 (64%) HOU +167 (37%) O/U = 8

Lean: none
=======================================

 
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Arizona Diamondbacks 85-62 (58%) @ Los Angeles Dodgers 72-73 (50%)

J. Saunders, starting for Arizona Diamondbacks, has a FIP of 4.68 (#180 in MLB), xFIP of 4.37 (#154 in MLB), and tERA of 5.66 (#204 in MLB), with a BABIP of .275, LOB% of 76%, and E-F of -0.86. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.54, with a WHIP of 1.33, and opponent BA of .261. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 21%, GB%: 44%, FB%: 35% for a 1.25 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 12%.

T. Lilly, starting for Los Angeles Dodgers, has a FIP of 4.61 (#168 in MLB), xFIP of 3.99 (#102 in MLB), and tERA of 4.7 (#144 in MLB), with a BABIP of .263, LOB% of 74%, and E-F of -0.17. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.39, with a WHIP of 1.18, and opponent BA of .244. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 20%, GB%: 34%, FB%: 46% for a 0.75 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 13%.

Arizona Diamondbacks have the #12 bullpen, #14 offense, and are rated #1 in fielding. They have a road record of 40-35 (53%), ranked #8 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.

Los Angeles Dodgers have the #10 bullpen, #23 offense, and are rated #11 in fielding. They have a home record of 36-35 (51%), ranked #19 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.



Odds: ARI +108 (48%) LAD -115 (53%) O/U = 7.5

Lean: none
=======================================

San Diego Padres 63-84 (43%) @ San Francisco Giants 76-70 (52%)

A. Harang, starting for San Diego Padres, has a FIP of 4.08 (#118 in MLB), xFIP of 4.16 (#130 in MLB), and tERA of 4.04 (#76 in MLB), with a BABIP of .318, LOB% of 77%, and E-F of -0.16. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.04, with a WHIP of 1.45, and opponent BA of .276. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 20%, GB%: 41%, FB%: 40% for a 1.04 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 9%.

E. Surkamp, starting for San Francisco Giants, has a FIP of 3.68 (#72 in MLB), xFIP of 5.32 (#229 in MLB), and tERA of 4.72 (#149 in MLB), with a BABIP of .3, LOB% of 90%, and E-F of -2.18. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.33, with a WHIP of 1.5, and opponent BA of .25. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 26%, GB%: 32%, FB%: 42% for a 0.75 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 0%.

San Diego Padres have the #6 bullpen, #28 offense, and are rated #7 in fielding. They have a road record of 33-42 (44%), ranked #21 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.

San Francisco Giants have the #2 bullpen, #29 offense, and are rated #10 in fielding. They have a home record of 41-34 (55%), ranked #13 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.



Odds: SDP +128 (44%) SFG -136 (58%) O/U = 7

Lean: none
=======================================

Tampa Bay Rays 81-64 (56%) @ Baltimore Orioles 58-87 (40%)

J. Niemann, starting for Tampa Bay Rays, has a FIP of 3.7 (#74 in MLB), xFIP of 3.65 (#55 in MLB), and tERA of 3.92 (#65 in MLB), with a BABIP of .274, LOB% of 75%, and E-F of -0.24. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.18, with a WHIP of 1.18, and opponent BA of .238. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 20%, GB%: 44%, FB%: 36% for a 1.21 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 10%.

Z. Britton, starting for Baltimore Orioles, has a FIP of 3.82 (#88 in MLB), xFIP of 3.98 (#100 in MLB), and tERA of 4.17 (#87 in MLB), with a BABIP of .311, LOB% of 64%, and E-F of 0.46. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.71, with a WHIP of 1.45, and opponent BA of .274. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 18%, GB%: 54%, FB%: 29% for a 1.89 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 8%.

Tampa Bay Rays have the #26 bullpen, #13 offense, and are rated #3 in fielding. They have a road record of 39-31 (56%), ranked #4 in MLB and have Won 4 in a row.

Baltimore Orioles have the #28 bullpen, #14 offense, and are rated #30 in fielding. They have a home record of 33-39 (46%), ranked #23 in MLB and have Lost 2 in a row.



Odds: TBR -145 (59%) BAL +136 (42%) O/U = 8

Lean: none
=======================================

Detroit Tigers 84-62 (58%) @ Chicago White Sox 73-72 (50%)

R. Porcello, starting for Detroit Tigers, has a FIP of 4.02 (#110 in MLB), xFIP of 4.05 (#111 in MLB), and tERA of 4.4 (#111 in MLB), with a BABIP of .325, LOB% of 66%, and E-F of 0.99. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.4, with a WHIP of 1.44, and opponent BA of .294. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 19%, GB%: 49%, FB%: 31% for a 1.58 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 9%.

J. Danks, starting for Chicago White Sox, has a FIP of 3.8 (#86 in MLB), xFIP of 3.67 (#59 in MLB), and tERA of 4.35 (#103 in MLB), with a BABIP of .297, LOB% of 76%, and E-F of -0.18. He has a K/BB ratio of 3, with a WHIP of 1.26, and opponent BA of .255. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 20%, GB%: 44%, FB%: 37% for a 1.19 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 10%.

Detroit Tigers have the #25 bullpen, #5 offense, and are rated #22 in fielding. They have a road record of 39-33 (54%), ranked #6 in MLB and have Won 9 in a row.

Chicago White Sox have the #5 bullpen, #19 offense, and are rated #12 in fielding. They have a home record of 33-39 (46%), ranked #23 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.



Odds: DET +108 (48%) CHW -115 (53%) O/U = 9

Lean: none
=======================================

LAA Angels 80-66 (55%) @ Oakland Athletics 66-80 (45%)

J. Pineiro, starting for LAA Angels, has a FIP of 4.59 (#166 in MLB), xFIP of 4.38 (#155 in MLB), and tERA of 5.31 (#180 in MLB), with a BABIP of .337, LOB% of 66%, and E-F of 0.77. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.55, with a WHIP of 1.58, and opponent BA of .322. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 22%, GB%: 49%, FB%: 30% for a 1.64 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 11%.

G. Gonzalez, starting for Oakland Athletics, has a FIP of 3.64 (#63 in MLB), xFIP of 3.72 (#65 in MLB), and tERA of 3.69 (#43 in MLB), with a BABIP of .294, LOB% of 75%, and E-F of -0.29. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.11, with a WHIP of 1.35, and opponent BA of .232. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 18%, GB%: 48%, FB%: 34% for a 1.44 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 9%.

LAA Angels have the #22 bullpen, #17 offense, and are rated #5 in fielding. They have a road record of 36-35 (51%), ranked #13 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.

Oakland Athletics have the #11 bullpen, #25 offense, and are rated #28 in fielding. They have a home record of 39-32 (55%), ranked #12 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.



Odds: LAA +129 (44%) OAK -137 (58%) O/U = 8

Lean: A's
=======================================

New York Yankees 88-57 (61%) @ Seattle Mariners 61-85 (42%)

P. Hughes, starting for New York Yankees, has a FIP of 4.59 (#166 in MLB), xFIP of 4.72 (#193 in MLB), and tERA of 5.27 (#177 in MLB), with a BABIP of .311, LOB% of 62%, and E-F of 1.75. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.94, with a WHIP of 1.48, and opponent BA of .286. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 24%, GB%: 32%, FB%: 44% for a 0.74 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 9%.

F. Hernandez, starting for Seattle Mariners, has a FIP of 3.12 (#22 in MLB), xFIP of 3.17 (#13 in MLB), and tERA of 3.38 (#23 in MLB), with a BABIP of .3, LOB% of 74%, and E-F of 0.25. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.15, with a WHIP of 1.2, and opponent BA of .237. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 20%, GB%: 48%, FB%: 32% for a 1.49 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 9%.

New York Yankees have the #3 bullpen, #1 offense, and are rated #6 in fielding. They have a road record of 42-30 (58%), ranked #2 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.

Seattle Mariners have the #22 bullpen, #30 offense, and are rated #16 in fielding. They have a home record of 36-39 (48%), ranked #20 in MLB and have Lost 2 in a row.



Odds: NYY +109 (48%) SEA -116 (54%) O/U = 7

Lean: Mariners
=======================================

 
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GL bodio
 
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gl bodio.....
 
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Good luck señor.
 
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GL Bodio!
 
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Posted: #10
Sup Bodio

i dont like the play FLA some how is batting the ball and ATL race for the Wild Card this can easy go 4-4 and is over... well thats my point but probably ur right again.. lol i pass the unders just dnt like them

i see you lean for OAK Gio has been dominant vs LAA and Pineiro is in bad shape i really like  OAK in this spot but also the O/8, LAA is hitting Lefties and in a race with TEX.. what you think for the total in this one.. can you please tell us what your model has for this.?

also whats your isight for the TB vs BAL game, TB in race for the wild card, everybody is riding TB, and well Niem is solid but i think Britton is in better shape, well i like TB and the OVER for other reasons, what you think.. what your model has for this one..?

as always  Bodio thanx for your time and write ups

 GL bud


 
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Like the pick. BOL tonight
 
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Thanks Bodio,

Will that be it for today in MLB?

 
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congrats for yesterday MLB plays

Best of Luck from Romania
 
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Quote Originally Posted by Czar_10:

Sup Bodio

i dont like the play FLA some how is batting the ball and ATL race for the Wild Card this can easy go 4-4 and is over... well thats my point but probably ur right again.. lol i pass the unders just dnt like them

i see you lean for OAK Gio has been dominant vs LAA and Pineiro is in bad shape i really like  OAK in this spot but also the O/8, LAA is hitting Lefties and in a race with TEX.. what you think for the total in this one.. can you please tell us what your model has for this.?

also whats your isight for the TB vs BAL game, TB in race for the wild card, everybody is riding TB, and well Niem is solid but i think Britton is in better shape, well i like TB and the OVER for other reasons, what you think.. what your model has for this one..?

as always  Bodio thanx for your time and write ups

 GL bud



I got the OAK/LAA total at 7.7 total runs.  LAA does hit lefties pretty well. 

for the BAL/TAM game, Rays have only a +0.1 run advantage according to the model.  The total is at 8.2 total runs.  Easy passes for me.  
 
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Quote Originally Posted by ctconnection:

Thanks Bodio,

Will that be it for today in MLB?


Yes, that's it.  
Nothing else that I loved
 
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Bodio, please tell me your opinion about NY Mets, I really like them today, beside your leans SEA and ATL/FLA under

thank you
 
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Thank you
 
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Thanks for the write-up Bodio...can't believe I missed your plays yesterday...got so caught up in footballthat everything else went on the backburner. I'll be tailing you on this play. Always like when Beachy takes the mound to not give up runs...GL tonight!
 
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Good thing you lean against the Halos,i like Halos but after reading  this thread it changed my mind.

Although  Crisp might be out mostlikely in this game, i still dont trust Pineiro, if Williams is pitching for the Halos i might take a chance.

Halos still a chance to win AL WEST 

Good luck Bodio  ! 
 
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Best of Luck

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