Rockies are coming off 7-game roadie with a 3-4 record, but things are looking a bit easier for this team as they'll get Florida, Dodgers, and Houston in their next 3 series, all at home. As poor as Colorado is playing, Florida is struggling even more so, with a 1-9 record in their last 10 games. This team hasn't had a double-digit hits game in 9 straight, averaging 6.33 hits per game and 2.33 runs per game during this stretch. They'll be facing Kevin Milwood, who made his first start of 2011, giving up 6 hits in 7 innings of work and 3 ER"s, all solo home-runs. So why am I backing him today? Well, Marlins are missing Hanley Ramirez, Omar Infante, and now, Logan Morrison, who has been unexpectedly demoted to the minors after Saturday's game. Morrison was 2nd on the team with 17 HR's this year and 3rd with 60 RBI. With Ramirez and Morrison out of the lineup, there aren't many HR threats left for the Fish. Stanton and Sanchez are the only 2 players with some 'pop' and they haven't seen much of Millwood in their careers (5 AB's between them against him). I like the fact that Millwood struck out 6 and walked only 1 in his first start with Colorado, and as long as his control is 'there' again, he'll be successful tonight. I mean, Mike Cameron was batting 5th last night! Anytime you have "Mike Cameron" batting 5th in a lineup, you know you have issues.
Opposite, Milwood is Clay Hensley, who has given up a HR in 3 straight games, allowing 12 ER's in a span of 15 innings (8 K's to 7 BB's). The guy is a very mediocre pitcher with a 1.0 K/BB ratio (one of the worst in all of baseball), 5.50 xFIP (#224 in MLB), and 5.0 tERA (#161). What is interesting is that he has a below-average 41% GB-rate and a very lucky .228 BABIP, suggesting continues regression to the mean in the near future. In a 'hitters park' like Coors Field, I expect him to really struggle.
Finally I want to point out that it's hard to gauge the state-of-mind of a players in a particular locker-room, but Morrison's demotion can't sit well with a struggling team like Florida. Now, Morrison is expected to file a grievance with the union, which is just another distraction for this team. Marlins are a team whose 'best' performers are their young up-and-coming players, so this type of a distraction can be difficult for them to block-out completely in order to concentrate fully on baseball. I see this being a fairly easy win for the Rockies tonight.
Good luck!
_________________ '10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130 '10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600 '10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800 '10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400 '10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400 '10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200 '10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400 '10 NBA: 151-99 @ 60% for +$42,100 '10 NBAP: 30-26 @ 54% for +$1,400 '10 NHL: 18-9 @ 67% for +$6,175 '10 NHLP: 16-7 @ 70% for +$5,575
----------------------------------- TOTAL: 415-277 @ 60% for +$107,580
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned"
Rockies are coming off 7-game roadie with a 3-4 record, but things are looking a bit easier for this team as they'll get Florida, Dodgers, and Houston in their next 3 series, all at home. As poor as Colorado is playing, Florida is struggling even more so, with a 1-9 record in their last 10 games. This team hasn't had a double-digit hits game in 9 straight, averaging 6.33 hits per game and 2.33 runs per game during this stretch. They'll be facing Kevin Milwood, who made his first start of 2011, giving up 6 hits in 7 innings of work and 3 ER"s, all solo home-runs. So why am I backing him today? Well, Marlins are missing Hanley Ramirez, Omar Infante, and now, Logan Morrison, who has been unexpectedly demoted to the minors after Saturday's game. Morrison was 2nd on the team with 17 HR's this year and 3rd with 60 RBI. With Ramirez and Morrison out of the lineup, there aren't many HR threats left for the Fish. Stanton and Sanchez are the only 2 players with some 'pop' and they haven't seen much of Millwood in their careers (5 AB's between them against him). I like the fact that Millwood struck out 6 and walked only 1 in his first start with Colorado, and as long as his control is 'there' again, he'll be successful tonight. I mean, Mike Cameron was batting 5th last night! Anytime you have "Mike Cameron" batting 5th in a lineup, you know you have issues.
Opposite, Milwood is Clay Hensley, who has given up a HR in 3 straight games, allowing 12 ER's in a span of 15 innings (8 K's to 7 BB's). The guy is a very mediocre pitcher with a 1.0 K/BB ratio (one of the worst in all of baseball), 5.50 xFIP (#224 in MLB), and 5.0 tERA (#161). What is interesting is that he has a below-average 41% GB-rate and a very lucky .228 BABIP, suggesting continues regression to the mean in the near future. In a 'hitters park' like Coors Field, I expect him to really struggle.
Finally I want to point out that it's hard to gauge the state-of-mind of a players in a particular locker-room, but Morrison's demotion can't sit well with a struggling team like Florida. Now, Morrison is expected to file a grievance with the union, which is just another distraction for this team. Marlins are a team whose 'best' performers are their young up-and-coming players, so this type of a distraction can be difficult for them to block-out completely in order to concentrate fully on baseball. I see this being a fairly easy win for the Rockies tonight.
Good luck!
_________________ '10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130 '10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600 '10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800 '10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400 '10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400 '10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200 '10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400 '10 NBA: 151-99 @ 60% for +$42,100 '10 NBAP: 30-26 @ 54% for +$1,400 '10 NHL: 18-9 @ 67% for +$6,175 '10 NHLP: 16-7 @ 70% for +$5,575
----------------------------------- TOTAL: 415-277 @ 60% for +$107,580
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned"
St Louis Cardinals 65-56 (54%) @ Pittsburgh Pirates 56-63 (47%)
J. Westbrook, starting for St Louis Cardinals, has a FIP of 4.28 (#131 in MLB), xFIP of 4.05 (#111 in MLB), and tERA of 4.26 (#95 in MLB), with a BABIP of .301, LOB% of 68%, and E-F of 0.47. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.4, with a WHIP of 1.47, and opponent BA of .275. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 16%, GB%: 61%, FB%: 23% for a 2.65 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 12%.
J. McDonald, starting for Pittsburgh Pirates, has a FIP of 4.82 (#185 in MLB), xFIP of 4.34 (#150 in MLB), and tERA of 4.84 (#153 in MLB), with a BABIP of .303, LOB% of 79%, and E-F of -0.58. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.86, with a WHIP of 1.5, and opponent BA of .267. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 18%, GB%: 39%, FB%: 43% for a 0.93 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 12%.
St Louis Cardinals have the #15 bullpen, #4 offense, and are rated #27 in fielding. They have a road record of 33-29 (53%), ranked #9 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.
Pittsburgh Pirates have the #17 bullpen, #26 offense, and are rated #10 in fielding. They have a home record of 26-32 (45%), ranked #25 in MLB and have Lost 3 in a row.
San Francisco Giants 66-55 (55%) @ Atlanta Braves 70-51 (58%)
M. Bumgarner, starting for San Francisco Giants, has a FIP of 2.53 (#3 in MLB), xFIP of 3.05 (#9 in MLB), and tERA of 3.18 (#17 in MLB), with a BABIP of .333, LOB% of 69%, and E-F of 0.99. He has a K/BB ratio of 4.06, with a WHIP of 1.25, and opponent BA of .262. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 21%, GB%: 46%, FB%: 33% for a 1.4 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 5%.
T. Hudson, starting for Atlanta Braves, has a FIP of 3.3 (#40 in MLB), xFIP of 3.4 (#30 in MLB), and tERA of 3.47 (#30 in MLB), with a BABIP of .262, LOB% of 71%, and E-F of -0.12. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.97, with a WHIP of 1.09, and opponent BA of .224. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 17%, GB%: 57%, FB%: 26% for a 2.2 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 8%.
San Francisco Giants have the #2 bullpen, #28 offense, and are rated #8 in fielding. They have a road record of 31-30 (51%), ranked #13 in MLB and have Won 2 in a row.
Atlanta Braves have the #1 bullpen, #19 offense, and are rated #28 in fielding. They have a home record of 35-24 (59%), ranked #6 in MLB and have Lost 2 in a row.
Chicago Cubs 53-68 (44%) @ Houston Astros 38-83 (31%)
R. Lopez, starting for Chicago Cubs, has a FIP of 4.66 (#167 in MLB), xFIP of 4.36 (#153 in MLB), and tERA of 5.66 (#201 in MLB), with a BABIP of .313, LOB% of 65%, and E-F of 0.36. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.5, with a WHIP of 1.42, and opponent BA of .301. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 21%, GB%: 43%, FB%: 36% for a 1.18 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 11%.
H. Sosa, starting for Houston Astros, has a FIP of 5.84 (#218 in MLB), xFIP of 5.08 (#213 in MLB), and tERA of 6.43 (#214 in MLB), with a BABIP of .278, LOB% of 70%, and E-F of 0.16. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.33, with a WHIP of 1.5, and opponent BA of .261. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 21%, GB%: 42%, FB%: 37% for a 1.14 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 14%.
Chicago Cubs have the #20 bullpen, #14 offense, and are rated #26 in fielding. They have a road record of 24-35 (41%), ranked #23 in MLB and have Won 2 in a row.
Houston Astros have the #28 bullpen, #23 offense, and are rated #29 in fielding. They have a home record of 19-40 (32%), ranked #30 in MLB and have Lost 6 in a row.
Odds: CHC -124 (55%) HOU +117 (46%) O/U = 8.5
Lean: OVER =======================================
Los Angeles Dodgers 55-64 (46%) @ Milwaukee Brewers 70-51 (58%)
T. Lilly, starting for Los Angeles Dodgers, has a FIP of 4.64 (#161 in MLB), xFIP of 3.98 (#107 in MLB), and tERA of 4.88 (#154 in MLB), with a BABIP of .28, LOB% of 73%, and E-F of 0.07. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.53, with a WHIP of 1.24, and opponent BA of .259. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 21%, GB%: 33%, FB%: 46% for a 0.73 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 13%.
R. Wolf, starting for Milwaukee Brewers, has a FIP of 4.25 (#128 in MLB), xFIP of 4.41 (#161 in MLB), and tERA of 4.9 (#158 in MLB), with a BABIP of .281, LOB% of 77%, and E-F of -0.78. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.98, with a WHIP of 1.31, and opponent BA of .253. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 23%, GB%: 37%, FB%: 40% for a 0.91 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 8%.
Los Angeles Dodgers have the #11 bullpen, #24 offense, and are rated #14 in fielding. They have a road record of 24-30 (44%), ranked #19 in MLB and have Won 3 in a row.
Milwaukee Brewers have the #6 bullpen, #6 offense, and are rated #9 in fielding. They have a home record of 44-15 (75%), ranked #1 in MLB and have Won 3 in a row.
St Louis Cardinals 65-56 (54%) @ Pittsburgh Pirates 56-63 (47%)
J. Westbrook, starting for St Louis Cardinals, has a FIP of 4.28 (#131 in MLB), xFIP of 4.05 (#111 in MLB), and tERA of 4.26 (#95 in MLB), with a BABIP of .301, LOB% of 68%, and E-F of 0.47. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.4, with a WHIP of 1.47, and opponent BA of .275. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 16%, GB%: 61%, FB%: 23% for a 2.65 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 12%.
J. McDonald, starting for Pittsburgh Pirates, has a FIP of 4.82 (#185 in MLB), xFIP of 4.34 (#150 in MLB), and tERA of 4.84 (#153 in MLB), with a BABIP of .303, LOB% of 79%, and E-F of -0.58. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.86, with a WHIP of 1.5, and opponent BA of .267. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 18%, GB%: 39%, FB%: 43% for a 0.93 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 12%.
St Louis Cardinals have the #15 bullpen, #4 offense, and are rated #27 in fielding. They have a road record of 33-29 (53%), ranked #9 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.
Pittsburgh Pirates have the #17 bullpen, #26 offense, and are rated #10 in fielding. They have a home record of 26-32 (45%), ranked #25 in MLB and have Lost 3 in a row.
San Francisco Giants 66-55 (55%) @ Atlanta Braves 70-51 (58%)
M. Bumgarner, starting for San Francisco Giants, has a FIP of 2.53 (#3 in MLB), xFIP of 3.05 (#9 in MLB), and tERA of 3.18 (#17 in MLB), with a BABIP of .333, LOB% of 69%, and E-F of 0.99. He has a K/BB ratio of 4.06, with a WHIP of 1.25, and opponent BA of .262. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 21%, GB%: 46%, FB%: 33% for a 1.4 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 5%.
T. Hudson, starting for Atlanta Braves, has a FIP of 3.3 (#40 in MLB), xFIP of 3.4 (#30 in MLB), and tERA of 3.47 (#30 in MLB), with a BABIP of .262, LOB% of 71%, and E-F of -0.12. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.97, with a WHIP of 1.09, and opponent BA of .224. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 17%, GB%: 57%, FB%: 26% for a 2.2 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 8%.
San Francisco Giants have the #2 bullpen, #28 offense, and are rated #8 in fielding. They have a road record of 31-30 (51%), ranked #13 in MLB and have Won 2 in a row.
Atlanta Braves have the #1 bullpen, #19 offense, and are rated #28 in fielding. They have a home record of 35-24 (59%), ranked #6 in MLB and have Lost 2 in a row.
Chicago Cubs 53-68 (44%) @ Houston Astros 38-83 (31%)
R. Lopez, starting for Chicago Cubs, has a FIP of 4.66 (#167 in MLB), xFIP of 4.36 (#153 in MLB), and tERA of 5.66 (#201 in MLB), with a BABIP of .313, LOB% of 65%, and E-F of 0.36. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.5, with a WHIP of 1.42, and opponent BA of .301. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 21%, GB%: 43%, FB%: 36% for a 1.18 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 11%.
H. Sosa, starting for Houston Astros, has a FIP of 5.84 (#218 in MLB), xFIP of 5.08 (#213 in MLB), and tERA of 6.43 (#214 in MLB), with a BABIP of .278, LOB% of 70%, and E-F of 0.16. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.33, with a WHIP of 1.5, and opponent BA of .261. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 21%, GB%: 42%, FB%: 37% for a 1.14 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 14%.
Chicago Cubs have the #20 bullpen, #14 offense, and are rated #26 in fielding. They have a road record of 24-35 (41%), ranked #23 in MLB and have Won 2 in a row.
Houston Astros have the #28 bullpen, #23 offense, and are rated #29 in fielding. They have a home record of 19-40 (32%), ranked #30 in MLB and have Lost 6 in a row.
Odds: CHC -124 (55%) HOU +117 (46%) O/U = 8.5
Lean: OVER =======================================
Los Angeles Dodgers 55-64 (46%) @ Milwaukee Brewers 70-51 (58%)
T. Lilly, starting for Los Angeles Dodgers, has a FIP of 4.64 (#161 in MLB), xFIP of 3.98 (#107 in MLB), and tERA of 4.88 (#154 in MLB), with a BABIP of .28, LOB% of 73%, and E-F of 0.07. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.53, with a WHIP of 1.24, and opponent BA of .259. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 21%, GB%: 33%, FB%: 46% for a 0.73 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 13%.
R. Wolf, starting for Milwaukee Brewers, has a FIP of 4.25 (#128 in MLB), xFIP of 4.41 (#161 in MLB), and tERA of 4.9 (#158 in MLB), with a BABIP of .281, LOB% of 77%, and E-F of -0.78. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.98, with a WHIP of 1.31, and opponent BA of .253. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 23%, GB%: 37%, FB%: 40% for a 0.91 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 8%.
Los Angeles Dodgers have the #11 bullpen, #24 offense, and are rated #14 in fielding. They have a road record of 24-30 (44%), ranked #19 in MLB and have Won 3 in a row.
Milwaukee Brewers have the #6 bullpen, #6 offense, and are rated #9 in fielding. They have a home record of 44-15 (75%), ranked #1 in MLB and have Won 3 in a row.
C. Hensley, starting for Florida Marlins, has a FIP of 5.33 (#203 in MLB), xFIP of 5.5 (#224 in MLB), and tERA of 4.95 (#161 in MLB), with a BABIP of .228, LOB% of 69%, and E-F of -0.29. He has a K/BB ratio of 1, with a WHIP of 1.36, and opponent BA of .221. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 16%, GB%: 41%, FB%: 44% for a 0.93 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 7%.
K. Millwood, starting for Colorado Rockies, has a FIP of 7.3 (#230 in MLB), xFIP of 2.75 (#4 in MLB), and tERA of 8.47 (#233 in MLB), with a BABIP of .176, LOB% of 100%, and E-F of -3.44. He has a K/BB ratio of 6, with a WHIP of 1, and opponent BA of .231. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 11%, GB%: 56%, FB%: 33% for a 1.67 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 50%.
Florida Marlins have the #9 bullpen, #19 offense, and are rated #18 in fielding. They have a road record of 32-25 (56%), ranked #5 in MLB and have Lost 2 in a row.
Colorado Rockies have the #13 bullpen, #8 offense, and are rated #17 in fielding. They have a home record of 28-31 (47%), ranked #21 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.
Odds: FLA +136 (42%) COL -145 (59%) O/U = 10.5
Lean: Rockies + OVER =======================================
New York Mets 58-62 (48%) @ San Diego Padres 54-68 (44%)
R. Dickey, starting for New York Mets, has a FIP of 3.92 (#99 in MLB), xFIP of 3.85 (#89 in MLB), and tERA of 3.79 (#58 in MLB), with a BABIP of .285, LOB% of 72%, and E-F of -0.15. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.38, with a WHIP of 1.28, and opponent BA of .256. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 16%, GB%: 52%, FB%: 32% for a 1.66 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 10%.
A. Harang, starting for San Diego Padres, has a FIP of 3.87 (#94 in MLB), xFIP of 4.17 (#131 in MLB), and tERA of 3.83 (#62 in MLB), with a BABIP of .317, LOB% of 75%, and E-F of 0.08. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.05, with a WHIP of 1.43, and opponent BA of .277. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 20%, GB%: 41%, FB%: 40% for a 1.03 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 7%.
New York Mets have the #19 bullpen, #6 offense, and are rated #25 in fielding. They have a road record of 33-30 (52%), ranked #10 in MLB and have Lost 5 in a row.
San Diego Padres have the #5 bullpen, #28 offense, and are rated #11 in fielding. They have a home record of 23-36 (39%), ranked #28 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.
Minnesota Twins 52-67 (44%) @ Detroit Tigers 64-56 (53%)
F. Liriano, starting for Minnesota Twins, has a FIP of 4.53 (#150 in MLB), xFIP of 4.41 (#161 in MLB), and tERA of 4.4 (#116 in MLB), with a BABIP of .286, LOB% of 68%, and E-F of 0.47. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.47, with a WHIP of 1.48, and opponent BA of .243. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 16%, GB%: 50%, FB%: 35% for a 1.45 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 10%.
R. Porcello, starting for Detroit Tigers, has a FIP of 3.92 (#99 in MLB), xFIP of 4 (#108 in MLB), and tERA of 4.25 (#94 in MLB), with a BABIP of .32, LOB% of 66%, and E-F of 1.01. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.53, with a WHIP of 1.4, and opponent BA of .288. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 19%, GB%: 49%, FB%: 33% for a 1.49 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 9%.
Minnesota Twins have the #29 bullpen, #26 offense, and are rated #11 in fielding. They have a road record of 25-37 (40%), ranked #24 in MLB and have Lost 2 in a row.
Detroit Tigers have the #23 bullpen, #5 offense, and are rated #21 in fielding. They have a home record of 33-25 (57%), ranked #10 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.
New York Yankees 72-46 (61%) @ Kansas City Royals 50-71 (41%)
A. Burnett, starting for New York Yankees, has a FIP of 4.67 (#172 in MLB), xFIP of 3.94 (#97 in MLB), and tERA of 4.98 (#162 in MLB), with a BABIP of .271, LOB% of 71%, and E-F of -0.07. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.95, with a WHIP of 1.36, and opponent BA of .238. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 18%, GB%: 48%, FB%: 34% for a 1.41 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 15%.
F. Paulino, starting for Kansas City Royals, has a FIP of 3.44 (#47 in MLB), xFIP of 3.67 (#63 in MLB), and tERA of 3.64 (#40 in MLB), with a BABIP of .33, LOB% of 73%, and E-F of 0.21. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.96, with a WHIP of 1.32, and opponent BA of .265. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 18%, GB%: 46%, FB%: 36% for a 1.27 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 9%.
New York Yankees have the #3 bullpen, #2 offense, and are rated #6 in fielding. They have a road record of 32-22 (59%), ranked #3 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.
Kansas City Royals have the #24 bullpen, #12 offense, and are rated #13 in fielding. They have a home record of 31-32 (49%), ranked #19 in MLB and have Lost 2 in a row.
Odds: NYY -148 (60%) KCR +139 (42%) O/U = 9.5
Lean: UNDER =======================================
C. Hensley, starting for Florida Marlins, has a FIP of 5.33 (#203 in MLB), xFIP of 5.5 (#224 in MLB), and tERA of 4.95 (#161 in MLB), with a BABIP of .228, LOB% of 69%, and E-F of -0.29. He has a K/BB ratio of 1, with a WHIP of 1.36, and opponent BA of .221. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 16%, GB%: 41%, FB%: 44% for a 0.93 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 7%.
K. Millwood, starting for Colorado Rockies, has a FIP of 7.3 (#230 in MLB), xFIP of 2.75 (#4 in MLB), and tERA of 8.47 (#233 in MLB), with a BABIP of .176, LOB% of 100%, and E-F of -3.44. He has a K/BB ratio of 6, with a WHIP of 1, and opponent BA of .231. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 11%, GB%: 56%, FB%: 33% for a 1.67 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 50%.
Florida Marlins have the #9 bullpen, #19 offense, and are rated #18 in fielding. They have a road record of 32-25 (56%), ranked #5 in MLB and have Lost 2 in a row.
Colorado Rockies have the #13 bullpen, #8 offense, and are rated #17 in fielding. They have a home record of 28-31 (47%), ranked #21 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.
Odds: FLA +136 (42%) COL -145 (59%) O/U = 10.5
Lean: Rockies + OVER =======================================
New York Mets 58-62 (48%) @ San Diego Padres 54-68 (44%)
R. Dickey, starting for New York Mets, has a FIP of 3.92 (#99 in MLB), xFIP of 3.85 (#89 in MLB), and tERA of 3.79 (#58 in MLB), with a BABIP of .285, LOB% of 72%, and E-F of -0.15. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.38, with a WHIP of 1.28, and opponent BA of .256. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 16%, GB%: 52%, FB%: 32% for a 1.66 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 10%.
A. Harang, starting for San Diego Padres, has a FIP of 3.87 (#94 in MLB), xFIP of 4.17 (#131 in MLB), and tERA of 3.83 (#62 in MLB), with a BABIP of .317, LOB% of 75%, and E-F of 0.08. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.05, with a WHIP of 1.43, and opponent BA of .277. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 20%, GB%: 41%, FB%: 40% for a 1.03 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 7%.
New York Mets have the #19 bullpen, #6 offense, and are rated #25 in fielding. They have a road record of 33-30 (52%), ranked #10 in MLB and have Lost 5 in a row.
San Diego Padres have the #5 bullpen, #28 offense, and are rated #11 in fielding. They have a home record of 23-36 (39%), ranked #28 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.
Minnesota Twins 52-67 (44%) @ Detroit Tigers 64-56 (53%)
F. Liriano, starting for Minnesota Twins, has a FIP of 4.53 (#150 in MLB), xFIP of 4.41 (#161 in MLB), and tERA of 4.4 (#116 in MLB), with a BABIP of .286, LOB% of 68%, and E-F of 0.47. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.47, with a WHIP of 1.48, and opponent BA of .243. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 16%, GB%: 50%, FB%: 35% for a 1.45 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 10%.
R. Porcello, starting for Detroit Tigers, has a FIP of 3.92 (#99 in MLB), xFIP of 4 (#108 in MLB), and tERA of 4.25 (#94 in MLB), with a BABIP of .32, LOB% of 66%, and E-F of 1.01. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.53, with a WHIP of 1.4, and opponent BA of .288. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 19%, GB%: 49%, FB%: 33% for a 1.49 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 9%.
Minnesota Twins have the #29 bullpen, #26 offense, and are rated #11 in fielding. They have a road record of 25-37 (40%), ranked #24 in MLB and have Lost 2 in a row.
Detroit Tigers have the #23 bullpen, #5 offense, and are rated #21 in fielding. They have a home record of 33-25 (57%), ranked #10 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.
New York Yankees 72-46 (61%) @ Kansas City Royals 50-71 (41%)
A. Burnett, starting for New York Yankees, has a FIP of 4.67 (#172 in MLB), xFIP of 3.94 (#97 in MLB), and tERA of 4.98 (#162 in MLB), with a BABIP of .271, LOB% of 71%, and E-F of -0.07. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.95, with a WHIP of 1.36, and opponent BA of .238. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 18%, GB%: 48%, FB%: 34% for a 1.41 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 15%.
F. Paulino, starting for Kansas City Royals, has a FIP of 3.44 (#47 in MLB), xFIP of 3.67 (#63 in MLB), and tERA of 3.64 (#40 in MLB), with a BABIP of .33, LOB% of 73%, and E-F of 0.21. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.96, with a WHIP of 1.32, and opponent BA of .265. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 18%, GB%: 46%, FB%: 36% for a 1.27 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 9%.
New York Yankees have the #3 bullpen, #2 offense, and are rated #6 in fielding. They have a road record of 32-22 (59%), ranked #3 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.
Kansas City Royals have the #24 bullpen, #12 offense, and are rated #13 in fielding. They have a home record of 31-32 (49%), ranked #19 in MLB and have Lost 2 in a row.
Odds: NYY -148 (60%) KCR +139 (42%) O/U = 9.5
Lean: UNDER =======================================
T. Hunter, starting for Baltimore Orioles, has a FIP of 2.73 (#10 in MLB), xFIP of 4.42 (#163 in MLB), and tERA of 4.75 (#148 in MLB), with a BABIP of .341, LOB% of 50%, and E-F of 4.02. He has a K/BB ratio of 3, with a WHIP of 1.41, and opponent BA of .319. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 22%, GB%: 46%, FB%: 32% for a 1.43 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 3%.
G. Gonzalez, starting for Oakland Athletics, has a FIP of 3.53 (#55 in MLB), xFIP of 3.7 (#66 in MLB), and tERA of 3.6 (#38 in MLB), with a BABIP of .302, LOB% of 75%, and E-F of -0.29. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.06, with a WHIP of 1.38, and opponent BA of .235. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 18%, GB%: 49%, FB%: 33% for a 1.47 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 8%.
Baltimore Orioles have the #27 bullpen, #14 offense, and are rated #30 in fielding. They have a road record of 17-37 (31%), ranked #29 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.
Oakland Athletics have the #8 bullpen, #25 offense, and are rated #24 in fielding. They have a home record of 31-27 (53%), ranked #14 in MLB and have Lost 3 in a row.
A. Ogando, starting for Texas Rangers, has a FIP of 3.46 (#48 in MLB), xFIP of 3.83 (#82 in MLB), and tERA of 4.19 (#91 in MLB), with a BABIP of .261, LOB% of 73%, and E-F of -0.23. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.94, with a WHIP of 1.1, and opponent BA of .226. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 23%, GB%: 37%, FB%: 40% for a 0.93 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 7%.
G. Richards, starting for LAA Angels, has a FIP of 8.61 (#235 in MLB), xFIP of 4.37 (#156 in MLB), and tERA of 13 (#240 in MLB), with a BABIP of .235, LOB% of 39%, and E-F of 2.19. He has a K/BB ratio of 1, with a WHIP of 1.6, and opponent BA of .286. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 37%, GB%: 42%, FB%: 21% for a 2 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 50%.
Texas Rangers have the #30 bullpen, #3 offense, and are rated #7 in fielding. They have a road record of 30-29 (51%), ranked #12 in MLB and have Won 3 in a row.
LAA Angels have the #25 bullpen, #21 offense, and are rated #4 in fielding. They have a home record of 32-25 (56%), ranked #12 in MLB and have Lost 2 in a row.
Toronto Blue Jays 61-59 (51%) @ Seattle Mariners 52-67 (44%)
H. Alvarez, starting for Toronto Blue Jays, has a FIP of 4.95 (#193 in MLB), xFIP of 3.72 (#70 in MLB), and tERA of 7.27 (#223 in MLB), with a BABIP of .35, LOB% of 81%, and E-F of -0.19. He has a K/BB ratio of 4, with a WHIP of 1.59, and opponent BA of .32. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 33%, GB%: 43%, FB%: 24% for a 1.8 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 20%.
M. Pineda, starting for Seattle Mariners, has a FIP of 3.34 (#41 in MLB), xFIP of 3.55 (#42 in MLB), and tERA of 3.44 (#27 in MLB), with a BABIP of .254, LOB% of 70%, and E-F of 0.23. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.04, with a WHIP of 1.08, and opponent BA of .204. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 20%, GB%: 34%, FB%: 47% for a 0.73 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 8%.
Toronto Blue Jays have the #17 bullpen, #10 offense, and are rated #20 in fielding. They have a road record of 30-30 (50%), ranked #14 in MLB and have Won 2 in a row.
Seattle Mariners have the #22 bullpen, #30 offense, and are rated #15 in fielding. They have a home record of 31-30 (51%), ranked #18 in MLB and have Won 2 in a row.
T. Hunter, starting for Baltimore Orioles, has a FIP of 2.73 (#10 in MLB), xFIP of 4.42 (#163 in MLB), and tERA of 4.75 (#148 in MLB), with a BABIP of .341, LOB% of 50%, and E-F of 4.02. He has a K/BB ratio of 3, with a WHIP of 1.41, and opponent BA of .319. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 22%, GB%: 46%, FB%: 32% for a 1.43 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 3%.
G. Gonzalez, starting for Oakland Athletics, has a FIP of 3.53 (#55 in MLB), xFIP of 3.7 (#66 in MLB), and tERA of 3.6 (#38 in MLB), with a BABIP of .302, LOB% of 75%, and E-F of -0.29. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.06, with a WHIP of 1.38, and opponent BA of .235. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 18%, GB%: 49%, FB%: 33% for a 1.47 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 8%.
Baltimore Orioles have the #27 bullpen, #14 offense, and are rated #30 in fielding. They have a road record of 17-37 (31%), ranked #29 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.
Oakland Athletics have the #8 bullpen, #25 offense, and are rated #24 in fielding. They have a home record of 31-27 (53%), ranked #14 in MLB and have Lost 3 in a row.
A. Ogando, starting for Texas Rangers, has a FIP of 3.46 (#48 in MLB), xFIP of 3.83 (#82 in MLB), and tERA of 4.19 (#91 in MLB), with a BABIP of .261, LOB% of 73%, and E-F of -0.23. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.94, with a WHIP of 1.1, and opponent BA of .226. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 23%, GB%: 37%, FB%: 40% for a 0.93 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 7%.
G. Richards, starting for LAA Angels, has a FIP of 8.61 (#235 in MLB), xFIP of 4.37 (#156 in MLB), and tERA of 13 (#240 in MLB), with a BABIP of .235, LOB% of 39%, and E-F of 2.19. He has a K/BB ratio of 1, with a WHIP of 1.6, and opponent BA of .286. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 37%, GB%: 42%, FB%: 21% for a 2 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 50%.
Texas Rangers have the #30 bullpen, #3 offense, and are rated #7 in fielding. They have a road record of 30-29 (51%), ranked #12 in MLB and have Won 3 in a row.
LAA Angels have the #25 bullpen, #21 offense, and are rated #4 in fielding. They have a home record of 32-25 (56%), ranked #12 in MLB and have Lost 2 in a row.
Toronto Blue Jays 61-59 (51%) @ Seattle Mariners 52-67 (44%)
H. Alvarez, starting for Toronto Blue Jays, has a FIP of 4.95 (#193 in MLB), xFIP of 3.72 (#70 in MLB), and tERA of 7.27 (#223 in MLB), with a BABIP of .35, LOB% of 81%, and E-F of -0.19. He has a K/BB ratio of 4, with a WHIP of 1.59, and opponent BA of .32. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 33%, GB%: 43%, FB%: 24% for a 1.8 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 20%.
M. Pineda, starting for Seattle Mariners, has a FIP of 3.34 (#41 in MLB), xFIP of 3.55 (#42 in MLB), and tERA of 3.44 (#27 in MLB), with a BABIP of .254, LOB% of 70%, and E-F of 0.23. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.04, with a WHIP of 1.08, and opponent BA of .204. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 20%, GB%: 34%, FB%: 47% for a 0.73 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 8%.
Toronto Blue Jays have the #17 bullpen, #10 offense, and are rated #20 in fielding. They have a road record of 30-30 (50%), ranked #14 in MLB and have Won 2 in a row.
Seattle Mariners have the #22 bullpen, #30 offense, and are rated #15 in fielding. They have a home record of 31-30 (51%), ranked #18 in MLB and have Won 2 in a row.
I just finished watched the Astros @ Dodgers series, and the Astros are the worst team I can remember ever watching play. The defense was throwing the ball all over the place. I feel very comfortable betting against this team.
Lopez pitching against the Cubs earlier this year got rocked by the Astros. But that was when they had Pence, Bourn and some other guys not currently starting for them. Lopez's last start against the Nationals was a good one, though the Nats are weak.
Cubs hit well against the Braves this weekend. I'll probably take them @ -124
I just finished watched the Astros @ Dodgers series, and the Astros are the worst team I can remember ever watching play. The defense was throwing the ball all over the place. I feel very comfortable betting against this team.
Lopez pitching against the Cubs earlier this year got rocked by the Astros. But that was when they had Pence, Bourn and some other guys not currently starting for them. Lopez's last start against the Nationals was a good one, though the Nats are weak.
Cubs hit well against the Braves this weekend. I'll probably take them @ -124
I believe that this will be Millwood's first home start for Colorado. If I'm right, you gotta ask yourself how well he will pitch at Coors field.
I like your argument for the game, but this feels like gambling. We are hoping that Millwood won't fall apart at Coors Field.
I actually like the play.
Sure, it's his 2nd start this year and 1st at home. Everyone knows that Coors is a 'hitters-park', but Florida is really missing a lot of power in their lineup. Sanchez and Stanton are the only 2 threats really. These young guys haven't seen much of Millwood so he has that going for him. Either way, Florida would need to win this game by stringing a number of singles/doubles together. Rockies can win with one-swing of a bat.
I believe that this will be Millwood's first home start for Colorado. If I'm right, you gotta ask yourself how well he will pitch at Coors field.
I like your argument for the game, but this feels like gambling. We are hoping that Millwood won't fall apart at Coors Field.
I actually like the play.
Sure, it's his 2nd start this year and 1st at home. Everyone knows that Coors is a 'hitters-park', but Florida is really missing a lot of power in their lineup. Sanchez and Stanton are the only 2 threats really. These young guys haven't seen much of Millwood so he has that going for him. Either way, Florida would need to win this game by stringing a number of singles/doubles together. Rockies can win with one-swing of a bat.
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