Messages

Forum Index : MLB Betting : Messages
Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: The Pittsburgh Pirates 60 Day Saga Continues #3
KeyElement
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
KeyElement
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 9417
Location: Arizona
#1
Posted: 8/4/2011 1:09:14 PM

I have not had a chance to update the units / return on risk stats yet as I proposed to track the results two different ways, “add the juice” and “flat unit play”. I may even add the third possible method, which is “add the juice on favorites, short play the dogs”. It would be interesting and possibly educational for all of us to apply all 3 methods while playing with / against the same team for 60 days. SJP has requested I no longer use her moniker in the thread title and that request will be honored. I have no idea if she plans to track this little experiment or comment in any way, but grant her a little credit for posting something so far out of whack it got me started on this. In spite of Dubyas best efforts this is still a mostly free society and she is free to do as she chooses.

I expect maybe 10 or 12 true students of baseball handicapping, odds and probability, to be interested enough to follow along and comment for 60 days. If you do enjoy it by all means comment, as 95% of Covers forum viewers are already baseball and odds experts and will have nothing to contribute other than an occasional “your nuts Key”

Taken with the proper spirit and attitude it could be fun, let’s get going.

Pittsburgh Pirates August-September, 0-3

Key’s plays against Pirates, 2-0

Cubs +134 Lopez/McDonald

The first premise to start with and remember every day of our lives is that it is a game, a sporting contest in which anything can (and does) happen. Just as there is no way to always be on the right side, there is also no reason to do anything foolish.

On the best day of his entire career the Pirates could not score a single run for Charlie Morton. Granted, Matt Garza tossed a hell of a game himself, but he was far and away the more likely of the two chuckers to do that going in.

So now the Pirates, a home field loser on a six game skid, send their “ace” out there to save the day and fill the role of “stopper”. C’mon folks, he’s a kid, that’s asking a lot isn’t it? And he only qualifies as an ace because the balance of the starting staff is barely major league qualified.

But the real story here is the money. If one is to lay -144 on the Pirates he or she must believe there is a greater than 59% chance the Pirates win this game. If they don’t win this situational matchup more than 590 times out of 1,000 the bettor makes no money. By contrast, at +134 the Cubs need only a 42.8% chance of success to reward their followers. 429 out of a thousand sounds much more likely.

The Pirates have only one 59% category. They have won 60%, 6 of 10, McDonald home starts. Congratulations may be in order for that but it has been a real struggle as he had to chuck 6.1 innings of shutout ball at the Reds on 7/19 and get 2.2 innings of shutout relief from the Pirates pen to win 1-0. Since then he has had 2 non-quality starts versus Atlanta and Philly and looks very, very human. Other than that barely acceptable stat the Pirates do not win 59%, overall, at home, or versus right handed starters. At the moment they are averaging 2.1 earned runs in 6.1 innings in that category for a projected 3 earned runs per 9 innings. They truly would need a gem from McDonald to overcome the Cubs projected 4 earned runs per 9.

No doubt someone in this thread or on the board will refer to Rodrigo Lopez as garbage (or much worse) but remember, he is not here for any other reason than that he earned his spot on the roster, and if Charlie Morton can toss a gem, why not Lopez? He does not have a “guaranteed millionaire” contract and in fact has to bust his butt every time out.

All that being said, why would I want to play the Pirates for 69 cents on the dollar when the Cubs are paying 134 cents (almost double) for the same risk? It’s the money folks, odds and probability. I don’t know who will win, neither do you, but I have to think I am on the right side of a gambling proposition.

quote
shrimp1958
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
shrimp1958
Participation Meter
Legend
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 48862
Location: Maryland
#2
Posted: 8/4/2011 1:27:22 PM
Lopez has found his stuff he had back in B'more almost 10 years ago....not much speed on his fastball...but finally learning how to pitch...
quote
backdooor_cover send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
backdooor_cover
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 5607
Location: Hawaii
#3
Posted: 8/4/2011 1:37:07 PM
You cursed the pirates. They was doing so good until you said something a few days ago to Sarah... LOL
Posted using a mobile device.
quote
tep send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
tep
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Jan 2004
Posts: 4402
Location: United States
#4
Posted: 8/4/2011 1:48:54 PM
Good time to start fading a young team that was playing above the talent.  Still may get good odds for a few games. I think the odds might start dropping real fast on future games for this to be worth the trouble. In a week or so they could be dogs the rest of the way. 

GL
quote
KeyElement
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
KeyElement
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 9417
Location: Arizona
#5
Posted: 8/4/2011 1:50:18 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by backdooor_cover:

You cursed the pirates. They was doing so good until you said something a few days ago to Sarah... LOL
So, Jerry Meals and Key Element are responsible for the demise of the Pirates? It will be hard, but I think I can live with that, LOL.

quote
KeyElement
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
KeyElement
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 9417
Location: Arizona
#6
Posted: 8/4/2011 1:54:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by tep:

Good time to start fading a young team that was playing above the talent.  Still may get good odds for a few games. I think the odds might start dropping real fast on future games for this to be worth the trouble. In a week or so they could be dogs the rest of the way. 

GL
Good point, and exactly what I was contending in the first place. As the odds drop any team can go from overvalued to undervalued, and I will be looking for go-with opportunities as opposed to go-against opportunities. THX.
quote
TMarsh21
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
TMarsh21
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 94
Location: Illinois
#7
Posted: 8/4/2011 10:02:04 PM
Well done, Key!  
quote
KeyElement
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
KeyElement
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 9417
Location: Arizona
#8
Posted: 8/4/2011 10:03:24 PM
TY
quote
PNE168
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
PNE168
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 156
Location:
#9
Posted: 10/31/2013 5:22:05 AM
quote
Forum Index : MLB Betting : Messages
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.