Posted: 8/4/2011 1:09:14 PM
I have not had a chance to update the units / return on risk
stats yet as I proposed to track the results two different ways, “add the juice”
and “flat unit play”. I may even add the third possible method, which is “add
the juice on favorites, short play the dogs”. It would be interesting and possibly
educational for all of us to apply all 3 methods while playing with / against
the same team for 60 days. SJP has requested I no longer use her moniker in the
thread title and that request will be honored. I have no idea if she plans to
track this little experiment or comment in any way, but grant her a little
credit for posting something so far out of whack it got me started on this. In
spite of Dubyas best efforts this is still a mostly free society and she is
free to do as she chooses.
I expect maybe 10 or 12 true students of baseball handicapping,
odds and probability, to be interested enough to follow along and comment for
60 days. If you do enjoy it by all means comment, as 95% of Covers forum
viewers are already baseball and odds experts and will have nothing to
contribute other than an occasional “your nuts Key”
Taken with the proper spirit and attitude it could be fun,
let’s get going.
Pirates August-September, 0-3
Key’s plays against Pirates, 2-0
Cubs +134 Lopez/McDonald
The first premise to start with and remember every day of
our lives is that it is a game, a sporting contest in which anything
can (and does) happen. Just as there is no way to always be on the
right side, there is also no reason to do anything foolish.
On the best day of his entire career the Pirates could not
score a single run for Charlie Morton. Granted, Matt Garza tossed a hell of a
game himself, but he was far and away the more likely of the two chuckers to do
that going in.
So now the Pirates, a home field loser on a six game skid,
send their “ace” out there to save the day and fill the role of “stopper”. C’mon
folks, he’s a kid, that’s asking a lot isn’t it? And he only qualifies as an
ace because the balance of the starting staff is barely major league qualified.
But the real story here is the money. If one is to lay -144 on the Pirates he
or she must believe there is a greater than 59% chance the Pirates win this
game. If they don’t win this situational matchup more than 590 times out of
1,000 the bettor makes no money. By contrast, at +134 the Cubs need only a
42.8% chance of success to reward their followers. 429 out of a thousand sounds much more likely.
The Pirates have only one 59% category. They have won 60%, 6
of 10, McDonald home starts. Congratulations may be in order for that but it
has been a real struggle as he had to chuck 6.1 innings of shutout ball at the
Reds on 7/19 and get 2.2 innings of shutout relief from the Pirates pen to win
1-0. Since then he has had 2 non-quality starts versus Atlanta and Philly and looks very, very
human. Other than that barely acceptable stat the Pirates do not win 59%,
overall, at home, or versus right handed starters. At the moment they are
averaging 2.1 earned runs in 6.1 innings in that category for a projected 3 earned
runs per 9 innings. They truly would need a gem from McDonald to overcome the Cubs
projected 4 earned runs per 9.
No doubt someone in this thread or on the board will refer to
Rodrigo Lopez as garbage (or much worse) but remember, he is not here for any other
reason than that he earned his spot on the roster, and if Charlie Morton can toss
a gem, why not Lopez? He does not have a “guaranteed millionaire” contract and in
fact has to bust his butt every time out.
All that being said, why would I want to play the Pirates for
69 cents on the dollar when the Cubs are paying 134 cents (almost double) for the
same risk? It’s the money folks, odds and probability. I don’t know who will win,
neither do you, but I have to think I am on the right side of a gambling proposition.