RARE PLAY/OPPORTUNITY + WRITE UP

This is the game and match up I've been waiting to take advantage of & everything seems to be setting up perfectly.

KYLE DAVIES VS JON LESTER.  Davies is 1 - 9, 7.32 ERA, and

60% of his games pitched go over.  "Wow, this guy sucks, or

has been up against amazing bats all season..."

DAVIES- (L3 Starts)

7/18- 4 Runs, 5 IP, in a 2-5 loss vs CHW

(CHW's Offense, 20th Runs/g, 17th BA)

7/8- 5 runs, 6 IP, 4-6 loss vs DET

(DET's offense, 9th Runs/g, 4th BA)

7/2- 7 runs, 3 IP, 6-9 loss @ COL

(COL's offense, 8th Runs/g, 14th BA)

*This has been an on going trend for Davies all season.  Now he faces the best offense w/ the hottest bats in baseball.*

NOW LETS LOOK AT BOSTON-

The Red Sox's offense is HOT HOT HOT.  Ranked 1st in
every category except stolen bases & homers (ranked 3rd).

Lets go back to the Boston v Balt game, where Boston won
15-10.  The R.Sox's bats were up against Bradley Bergesen,
a guy whos 2-6, w/ an ERA of 5.54.  He lasted 5 innings,
giving up 6 runs, and helped in heating up the R.Sox's.

***Again, Davies is 1-9, ERA of 7.32***

SO.. HOW DO WE TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS OPPORTUNITY-

I see the most value in OVERS.  Actually, I can easily
see Boston covering this total on there own.  And, BOSTON
over 5.5.

The FIRST five innings.  We KNOW Davies is going to struggle.
It would be EXTREMELY unlucky to see him come out and throw
darts.  He has yet to do that this season, so why would he
ON THE ROAD VS THE #1 OFFENSE IN THE LEAUGE?  The answer is, simply, he WON'T. 

Thus, OVER 5.5 (1ST 5) AND BOSTON -.5 (1ST 5) @ -170 

LASTLY-

We know Boston is the better team in every which way.  They will win easily.

Boston -1.5 @ -140 & -2.5 @ +120

My philosophy on betting sports is simple.  First, always be optimistic & 100% confident in your plays.  Second, always look for opportunities.  Well, this is a VERY rare play for me, but it is an amazing opportunitiy to capture a very large number of units on a single game.  Which also means its a risky play, because there is a CHANCE KC's Davies could show up.  This bet relies on him doing what he is good at, giving up runs & losing baseball games.  This has been a trend of his all season & now he faces the best of the best.  It will not change.

I hope everyone who reads has enjoyed the write up.  Here are my plays for this game, you can find my full card under my PETE's BBOD blog in the MLB Section.

BBOD #1, BOSTON VS KC OV 9.5, 5 Units

BBOD #2, BOSTON OVER 5.5, 4 Units

BBOD #3, BOSTON VS KC (1st 5), OV 5, 4 Units

BBOD #4, BOSTON -1.5 @ -140, 3 Units

BBOD #5, BOSTON -.5, @ -170, 1st 5, 2 Units

BBOD #6, BOSTON -2.5 @ +120, 2 Units

BBOD #7, BOS VS. KC Tot hits,runs, & errors OV 29.5, 2 Units

***Note; my unit system is 1 unit to 6 units, so adjust accordingly if you do decided to follow this BOLD play

Again, for my full card, look for 'PETE's BBOD'

GOOD LUCK ALL

bobby007

Thx buddy

Quote Originally Posted by SharpCheddar:

Lay off the uppers dude 

Not really my style of betting (or writing) but best of luck. Never heard of Davies but he sure does look terrible.

ADDERALL XR GOTS ME FIRED UP

*Not really my style of betting either, just a gave i've had highlighted for a few days now.  I watch a lot of KC's games and i've seen Davies 3-4 times, and all of those games were very entertaining.

*My main goal is to maximize value with Davies / the Royals in general / and Bostons hot offense.  If we get even HALF of what was shown in the Bos / Balt game a few weeks ago (hypo a 8 to 5 win) we potentially sweep the play.

brent0887

Ty Brent!

*BOL* today, Pete.   

...that was an entertaining piece of work.... 

  GiL  

GiLmo574

*Figured you'd like that

& Thanks, BOL to you also

SportsFreak69

HOFDEG Lets get it man

scaracas51

Letttssss goooooo!!!!!!!!

tidefan07

TY guys!  Lets go R. Sox!