Hey fellas, I'll
be in Vegas the rest of this week (till Sunday). Will try to post as
much as I can but obviously no write-ups. Wish me luck!!! #1: UNDER 7 PHI/FLA These
2 teams played to the UNDER last night and I expect a similar outcome
in today's game as well. Lee and Nolasco aren't that much off from Doc
and JJ. Lee has the 5th best FIP at 2.05 and 4th best xFIP at 2.11.
HIs K/BB ratio is a slick 8.57. HIs high BABIP of .355 and E-F of +1.64
indicates that he's bound to imrpve even further on those numbers. He
hasn't really faced most of the batters on the Marlins roster except
Infante and Buck, both of whom have hit him exceptionally well. Either
way, after another so-so start (he did have 16 K's but also allowed 9
hits in 7 innings), I expect Lee to 'bounce back' strong here against a
team which is averaging only 3.5 rpg in their last 6. Nolasco, has an
FIP of 3.48 (#64) and xFIP of 2.94 (#17th). His 5.43 K/BB ratio is very
impressive as well. He has an ERA of 2.98 and WHIP of 1.1 in 9 career
starts against the Phillies. The UNDER is 6-3 in those outings.
Current Phillies hitters are batting .242 off him with .300 OBP and .767
OPS. I expect him to pitch well against a team that is averaging 2.4
rpg in their last 5. Both teams have top-notch BP's, thus I'm
comfortable playing this UNDER for the whole game.
#2: Chicago White Sox +100
Peavy
is back! Sure, some people might fade him or pass on this game, but
I'm assuming he's ready to 'rock' if he's on the mound. Either way,
Chatwood is nothing special. He did hold Cleveland to 2 hits in 8
innings in his last outing, but still walked 5 in that game. Prior to
that, he allowed 20 hits and 10 ER's in 15 innings pitched. He had a 7
K's to 11 BB's in those 3 starts. Chatwood has a terrible FIP of 5.34
(one of the worst in the majors) and a xFIP of 5.13. His K/BB ratio is
under 1, at 0.82 and he has a BABIP of .265 (very lucky) with a -1.26
E-F. Regression to the negative alert!!! 2 factors why I like the
White Sox bats to ahve success here: 1) Chatwood is coming off a 111
pitch outing, highest of his short career and 2) He already faced the
ChiSox once this season. He won that game with a 7 inning / 5 hit
performance, but that's irrelevant. What's relevant is that these Sox
hitters have seen him a couple of times already at the plate, thus I
expect them to perform much better tonight. I'm assuming Peavy is on a
pitch count but his presence should be enough motivation for this
slumping Sox team to go out and 'perform'. I don't often use
'motivational' angles in baseball, but I feel this is one of those rare
cases where it might apply. Either way, GO PEAVY!
Good luck all!
_________________ '10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130 '10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600 '10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800 '10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400 '10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400 '10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200 '10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
-------------------------------------------------------------- 'TOTAL: 200-136 @ 60% for +$52,330
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned."
Hey fellas, I'll
be in Vegas the rest of this week (till Sunday). Will try to post as
much as I can but obviously no write-ups. Wish me luck!!! #1: UNDER 7 PHI/FLA These
2 teams played to the UNDER last night and I expect a similar outcome
in today's game as well. Lee and Nolasco aren't that much off from Doc
and JJ. Lee has the 5th best FIP at 2.05 and 4th best xFIP at 2.11.
HIs K/BB ratio is a slick 8.57. HIs high BABIP of .355 and E-F of +1.64
indicates that he's bound to imrpve even further on those numbers. He
hasn't really faced most of the batters on the Marlins roster except
Infante and Buck, both of whom have hit him exceptionally well. Either
way, after another so-so start (he did have 16 K's but also allowed 9
hits in 7 innings), I expect Lee to 'bounce back' strong here against a
team which is averaging only 3.5 rpg in their last 6. Nolasco, has an
FIP of 3.48 (#64) and xFIP of 2.94 (#17th). His 5.43 K/BB ratio is very
impressive as well. He has an ERA of 2.98 and WHIP of 1.1 in 9 career
starts against the Phillies. The UNDER is 6-3 in those outings.
Current Phillies hitters are batting .242 off him with .300 OBP and .767
OPS. I expect him to pitch well against a team that is averaging 2.4
rpg in their last 5. Both teams have top-notch BP's, thus I'm
comfortable playing this UNDER for the whole game.
#2: Chicago White Sox +100
Peavy
is back! Sure, some people might fade him or pass on this game, but
I'm assuming he's ready to 'rock' if he's on the mound. Either way,
Chatwood is nothing special. He did hold Cleveland to 2 hits in 8
innings in his last outing, but still walked 5 in that game. Prior to
that, he allowed 20 hits and 10 ER's in 15 innings pitched. He had a 7
K's to 11 BB's in those 3 starts. Chatwood has a terrible FIP of 5.34
(one of the worst in the majors) and a xFIP of 5.13. His K/BB ratio is
under 1, at 0.82 and he has a BABIP of .265 (very lucky) with a -1.26
E-F. Regression to the negative alert!!! 2 factors why I like the
White Sox bats to ahve success here: 1) Chatwood is coming off a 111
pitch outing, highest of his short career and 2) He already faced the
ChiSox once this season. He won that game with a 7 inning / 5 hit
performance, but that's irrelevant. What's relevant is that these Sox
hitters have seen him a couple of times already at the plate, thus I
expect them to perform much better tonight. I'm assuming Peavy is on a
pitch count but his presence should be enough motivation for this
slumping Sox team to go out and 'perform'. I don't often use
'motivational' angles in baseball, but I feel this is one of those rare
cases where it might apply. Either way, GO PEAVY!
Good luck all!
_________________ '10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130 '10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600 '10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800 '10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400 '10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400 '10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200 '10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
-------------------------------------------------------------- 'TOTAL: 200-136 @ 60% for +$52,330
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned."
Love your write ups Bodio, thanks for today's loot
Tailing you here again, surely the White Sox have to come good some time? Homerism or not
All best in Vegas Bodio - don't hurt 'the man' too much
Really not 'homerism'. I've faded Sox this year, like I do plenty. I just don't think Chatwood is anything special and Peavy coming back should have the Sox team plenty motivated to stay focused and perform well today...we shall see
Love your write ups Bodio, thanks for today's loot
Tailing you here again, surely the White Sox have to come good some time? Homerism or not
All best in Vegas Bodio - don't hurt 'the man' too much
Really not 'homerism'. I've faded Sox this year, like I do plenty. I just don't think Chatwood is anything special and Peavy coming back should have the Sox team plenty motivated to stay focused and perform well today...we shall see
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