Posted:
#1
2011 MLB Record:
18 - 12 @ 60% for +5.00 Units
Sun, 04/17
Chicago White Sox -102
Sure Dan Haren has had a 'hot' start so far this season, but he had a E-F of -1.42, one of the highest in the league. Combine that with a .159 BABIP, 95% LOB% (70% is a standard), and 38% GB-rate and we have a pitcher that is due for some regression here. Why today? Well, Haren threw 125 pitches last time out (Is this my fade of 'Weaver' all over? hehe. Yes it is!). In 2010, there were 5 instances when he threw 118 pitches or more. Here are the stats:
After 121 pitches: 6 inn; 9 hits; 7 ER; 3 HR; 2 BB; 8 K (W 9-7)
After 126 pitches: 5.2 inn; 9 hits; 3 ER; 0 HR; 2 BB; 5 K (W 7-4)
After 121 pitches: 6.2 inn; 10 hits; 3 ER; 0 HR; 2 BB; 6 K (L 3-2)
After 118 pitches: 5 inn; 8 hits; 6 ER; 2 HR; 1 BB; 8 K (L 12-1)
After 119 pitches: 6.1 inn; 10 hits; 4 ER; 1 HR; 0 BB; 2 K (L 5-4)
So in 29 innings in a similar scenario to tonight, Haren allowed 46 hits (between 8-10 each time), 23 ER's; and 6 HR's. Hope this explains why I feel tonight is a great spot for some 'regression' in his performance-stats.
On the other side we have Buehrle, who is coming off a gem himself (Haren had a 1-hitter in his last outing), allowing 2 hits in 8 innings. The different though is that Buehrle threw only 99 in that one.
White Sox are 8-2 in Buehrle's last 10 starts following a loss, indicating that he really steps up his game in these types of circumstances. White Sox are 5-1 after scoring 2 or less runs in the previous game, 17-8 in Buerhle's last 25 starts, and 5-2 in of a game #3 of the series. Angels are 1-11 in their last 12 road games against a lefty starter. I like the Sox to avoid the sweep tonight.
Good luck
18 - 12 @ 60% for +5.00 Units
Sun, 04/17
Chicago White Sox -102
Sure Dan Haren has had a 'hot' start so far this season, but he had a E-F of -1.42, one of the highest in the league. Combine that with a .159 BABIP, 95% LOB% (70% is a standard), and 38% GB-rate and we have a pitcher that is due for some regression here. Why today? Well, Haren threw 125 pitches last time out (Is this my fade of 'Weaver' all over? hehe. Yes it is!). In 2010, there were 5 instances when he threw 118 pitches or more. Here are the stats:
After 121 pitches: 6 inn; 9 hits; 7 ER; 3 HR; 2 BB; 8 K (W 9-7)
After 126 pitches: 5.2 inn; 9 hits; 3 ER; 0 HR; 2 BB; 5 K (W 7-4)
After 121 pitches: 6.2 inn; 10 hits; 3 ER; 0 HR; 2 BB; 6 K (L 3-2)
After 118 pitches: 5 inn; 8 hits; 6 ER; 2 HR; 1 BB; 8 K (L 12-1)
After 119 pitches: 6.1 inn; 10 hits; 4 ER; 1 HR; 0 BB; 2 K (L 5-4)
So in 29 innings in a similar scenario to tonight, Haren allowed 46 hits (between 8-10 each time), 23 ER's; and 6 HR's. Hope this explains why I feel tonight is a great spot for some 'regression' in his performance-stats.
On the other side we have Buehrle, who is coming off a gem himself (Haren had a 1-hitter in his last outing), allowing 2 hits in 8 innings. The different though is that Buehrle threw only 99 in that one.
White Sox are 8-2 in Buehrle's last 10 starts following a loss, indicating that he really steps up his game in these types of circumstances. White Sox are 5-1 after scoring 2 or less runs in the previous game, 17-8 in Buerhle's last 25 starts, and 5-2 in of a game #3 of the series. Angels are 1-11 in their last 12 road games against a lefty starter. I like the Sox to avoid the sweep tonight.
Good luck
_________________
'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
--------------------------------------------------------------
'TOTAL: 200-136 @ 60% for +$52,330
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned."
0
but can the Sox really turn around their downward slide against him? I suppose you think they can or you wouldn't be backing them 
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