Posted:
#1
#2: St Louis Cardinals -140
Look at the difference that Holliday has made to this Cardinals lineup. Since he came back, the Cards have averaged 12.5 hpg and 7 rpg scored. Why is this important? Well, because to me Galarraga is one of the worst starting pitchers in the league. Last year, his ERA was 4.49. When you look closer, his FIP was 5.09 (one of the worst in all majors) with an xFIP of 5.20. As you can see, his E-F is -.60, which was 20th highest to the negative last year. Add in the fact that his BABIP was a very lucky .261 (#14th luckiest) and we have a pitcher that is ready to regress further from his mediocre stats last year. Some will see that Armando got a win in his first start this year. But the fact that he gave up 2 HR's and only 33% of his outs were GB's is definitely a concern for his future starts. I don't really expect him to last past the 6th in this one, and then the 'stellar' 'Zona BP should step in. (They have an ERA of 7.5 and WHIP of 1.7 in 12 home-innings pitched this year)
Carpenter is Cards' best pitcher. He has allowed only 3 ER's this year in 13 innings with a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio in 2 starts this season. He is 4-0 against Arizona lifetime with an ERA of 2.58. I expect him to be solid again tonight.
Bottom line is that we have a #1 pitcher going up against a #5 in this one. I know Cards are on the road here, but even so, I expect them to get a comfortable win in this one. I have this one at -185 Cards, so to me there is defiinitely 'value' at -140.
#2: OVER 8 OAK/CHW (+107)
Cahill is a prime candidate for 'regression' this year, as he had the luckiest BABIP of .236 in 2010 and the 5th highest E-F to the negative of -1.21 (ERA of 2.97 but FIP of 4.19). That being said he has had success against the Sox in the past, with a 3.34 EAR in his 5 starts against them. This is a 'slightly' different lineup though. In 7 games against righty starters this year, White Sox are averaging 6.7 rpg and .350 OBP with 9 HR's. In addition, Adam Dunn is expected to start today after recovering from an apendectomy. Factor in that Cahill got a bit contract extension on Monday, and I expect him to give up a few runs in this one.
Edwin Jackson has had a spectacular start to his season so far but consistency has always been an issue with him. What else is interesting is that the current Athletics lineup is averaging .337 off him with an OBP of .400 and OPS close to .900. Now that's all good, but this is not why I'm making this OVER play tonight.
The real reason for this play is an interesting trend from 2010 in games involving Edwin Jackson. In games following an outing where he threw 110+ pitches, Jackson's games have averaged 10.78 runs per game. Now, I know there are a ton of other factors involed in those games, but it's still an interesting trend. Here's the breakdown:
#1: L 8-2 (10)
#2: W 5-4 (9)
#3: W 8-0 (8)
#4: L 7-4 (11)
#5: W 12-5 (17)
#6: W 6-5 (11)
#7: L 7-5 (12)
#8: W 8-5 (13)
#9: W 5-1 (6)
There were 9 such occurences last year and if we use 8 as an O/U, we would have gone 7-1-1. Well, Jackson threw 119 pitches in his last start. This trend is officially in play.
Good luck!
Look at the difference that Holliday has made to this Cardinals lineup. Since he came back, the Cards have averaged 12.5 hpg and 7 rpg scored. Why is this important? Well, because to me Galarraga is one of the worst starting pitchers in the league. Last year, his ERA was 4.49. When you look closer, his FIP was 5.09 (one of the worst in all majors) with an xFIP of 5.20. As you can see, his E-F is -.60, which was 20th highest to the negative last year. Add in the fact that his BABIP was a very lucky .261 (#14th luckiest) and we have a pitcher that is ready to regress further from his mediocre stats last year. Some will see that Armando got a win in his first start this year. But the fact that he gave up 2 HR's and only 33% of his outs were GB's is definitely a concern for his future starts. I don't really expect him to last past the 6th in this one, and then the 'stellar' 'Zona BP should step in. (They have an ERA of 7.5 and WHIP of 1.7 in 12 home-innings pitched this year)
Carpenter is Cards' best pitcher. He has allowed only 3 ER's this year in 13 innings with a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio in 2 starts this season. He is 4-0 against Arizona lifetime with an ERA of 2.58. I expect him to be solid again tonight.
Bottom line is that we have a #1 pitcher going up against a #5 in this one. I know Cards are on the road here, but even so, I expect them to get a comfortable win in this one. I have this one at -185 Cards, so to me there is defiinitely 'value' at -140.
#2: OVER 8 OAK/CHW (+107)
Cahill is a prime candidate for 'regression' this year, as he had the luckiest BABIP of .236 in 2010 and the 5th highest E-F to the negative of -1.21 (ERA of 2.97 but FIP of 4.19). That being said he has had success against the Sox in the past, with a 3.34 EAR in his 5 starts against them. This is a 'slightly' different lineup though. In 7 games against righty starters this year, White Sox are averaging 6.7 rpg and .350 OBP with 9 HR's. In addition, Adam Dunn is expected to start today after recovering from an apendectomy. Factor in that Cahill got a bit contract extension on Monday, and I expect him to give up a few runs in this one.
Edwin Jackson has had a spectacular start to his season so far but consistency has always been an issue with him. What else is interesting is that the current Athletics lineup is averaging .337 off him with an OBP of .400 and OPS close to .900. Now that's all good, but this is not why I'm making this OVER play tonight.
The real reason for this play is an interesting trend from 2010 in games involving Edwin Jackson. In games following an outing where he threw 110+ pitches, Jackson's games have averaged 10.78 runs per game. Now, I know there are a ton of other factors involed in those games, but it's still an interesting trend. Here's the breakdown:
#1: L 8-2 (10)
#2: W 5-4 (9)
#3: W 8-0 (8)
#4: L 7-4 (11)
#5: W 12-5 (17)
#6: W 6-5 (11)
#7: L 7-5 (12)
#8: W 8-5 (13)
#9: W 5-1 (6)
There were 9 such occurences last year and if we use 8 as an O/U, we would have gone 7-1-1. Well, Jackson threw 119 pitches in his last start. This trend is officially in play.
Good luck!
_________________
'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
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'TOTAL: 200-136 @ 60% for +$52,330
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned."
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