Alright...lets break this one down.
Looks like Game 1 will be CC Sabathia against CJ Wilson in Arlington. CC wasn't sharp with extra rest going into Game 1 of the ALDS. Does he faulter again? It's anybodies guess I guess but it is CC Sabathia. CJ Wilson has had an incredible season. However...it's better if you take out his starts against the Yankees. He had a 5.74 ERA in 3 starts, going 6 innings, 5.1 and 3 innings. CC, on the other hand, has missed Texas in all 3 series. It's probably a good thing since it's usually the pitcher that gets the advantage when facing teams who haven't seen him before.
Game 1: Yankees 6...Rangers 3
Andy Pettitte will face off against Colby Lewis. I don't know how anyone can dislike when Pettitte brought to the table in his first start of the postseason. And we all know Pettitte as being a gamer. As for Lewis...he held the Rays scoreless through 5 by getting out of jams. He gave up only 2 hits but walked 5 and struck out 5. He's a strikeout pitcher, which bodes well for the Yankees. Usually pitchers who rely on the punchout get high pitch counts. Also, the Yankees are great at working counts and seeing pitches. Here's the problem for the Yanks. They haven't seen him before. Just like Sabathia...Lewis has not pitched in any of the 3 series this season. We all know how bad the Yankees are when facing pitchers for the first time. I think there may be enough tape to overcome that slightly...but probably not a whole much. Note...the Yankees struggle more against ROOKIES that they haven't seen before more than guys who have a boatload of tape. I expect a well pitched game but I'll give the edge to the pitcher that the Yankees haven't seen before. I have a feeling Joba will be entered into one of these games and give up a long ball.
Game 2: Rangers 4...Yankees 3
Going back to the Bronx for Game 3 where Hughes will face off against Cliff Lee. Don't underestimate Hughes. He's a different pitcher on extended rest and he'll be on 8 days rest or so. He was VERY sharp against the Twins shut up many of the critics. However...he has the tendency to give up the long ball, especially at home. For some reason I see Cruz going deep twice in this game. Twice, whether they're solo bombs or grand slams, are more than enough for Cliff Lee 9 times out of 10. People have said Cliff Lee has had problems in Texas. But look at the numbers as the teams got better. He was hammered against the Royals and Orioles, but dominates the Rays, Yankees and Red Sox. When it's all said and done...it's Cliff Lee.
Game 3: Rangers 6...Yankees 1
Burnett v Hunter in Game 4. With what would probably expect to be a hostile crowd if the first 3 games go as I have them, Burnett probably won't love this environment. 1 walk, HBP or wild pitch and the crowd will be all over him. Lucky for him though...Hunter is the opposition and he's just no good. He may have had a great record at home during the regular season, but his road ERA is 4.48 and that doesn't fair well for him. I think it's safe to say that this will be a high scoring affair. However...with all this time off...I actually expect Burnett to pitch well. If you remember the World Series last season, the Yankees were down 1-0 at home and Burnett pitched the game of his life at home. Maybe you can expect that again. Regardless...Yankees Win.
Game 4: Yankees 9...Rangers 3
Back to the rematch of Game 1 only in the Bronx. CC would not be on short rest, and he's at home so he should be as sharp as ever. Personally, I don't expect anything different from CJ Wilson. I expect a lot of the same in this one.
Game 5: Yankees 6...Rangers 1
Andy Pettitte pitched all 3 clinching games in 2009. Going back to Texas, having finally seen Colby Lewis, I expect the Yankees to go to the World Series. The last thing you want in this spot is to get to a Game 7, on the road, and have to face Cliff Lee again. Pettitte has 19 postseason wins, which is the most all time. As mentioned before, he's a Gamer and the guy I want on the mound in this spot. Since the Yankees faced Lewis before, they should be able to figure him out easier and get more hits off of him. Not as much of a pitcher's match in this one.
Game 6: Yankees 5...Rangers 2
I got a question. Did Josh Hamilton play in the ALDS? I don't remember seeing anything? Clearly he's not over his rib injury and is not affective. That is a HUGE deal.
Jeter v Andrus -- I understand Andrus has the speed to cause problems against the Yankees here, but Jeter in the postseason is another animal. If Andrus gets on base though...he'll run wild.
Swisher v Young -- I'm just throwing Swisher in here because CJ and Lee are lefties and Swisher will bat 2nd for Game's 1 and 3 against them while Granderson bats further in the lineup until a righty comes up. Young has that homer in the ALDS but that's about it. Young has the track record...but Swisher is more of a "what have you done for me lately" type of pick here.
Teixeira v Hamilton -- This is tough. As I mentioned, Hamilton has been non existant. He was 2-18 in the ALDS with 6 strikeouts and 2 walks. We know what he CAN do so I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt and make this a split.
A-Rod v Vladdy -- Vladdy swings at everything. And while that makes him great...that also makes him a bit weak when facing great pitching. Lucky for him, though, the Yankees don't have "great" pitching...relatively good. A-Rod is A-Rod so I think it's fair to give A-Rod the VERY SLIGHT edge here.
Cano v Cruz -- The best matchup here. I really can't find a reason to give anyone the edge. Cruz can give you massive homers but Cano, althought not as massive, can homer too. Gotta make these even.
Thames v Kinsler -- Sometimes Swisher will bat here if Berkman is playing and Grandy is 2nd but Kinsler had an INSANE ALDS with a few homers. But this isn't even in question. Whether it's Thames or Swisher...gotta give the edge to Kinsler.
Posada v Murphy -- Posada had a nice ALDS. 3 hits, 2 RBIs. Not bad. It's kind of hard to figure this one out. It's a revolving door for Texas. Murphy, Francoeur or Borbon will be playing LF or CF. But I still give Posada the edge over all of them because of experience alone.
Granderson v Molina -- It's either Granderson or Berkman. Regardless of who it is...edge to the Yankees without question.
Gardner v Moreland -- Moreland or Borbon v Gardner here. Gardner was the weak link in the Yankees' lineup as he batted .200. But Moreland or Borbon haven't been any better. I'll be nice and give them the split, even though I believe Gardner is better.
I perfer Kerry Wood and Mariano Rivera over the Rangers' setup man and Neftali Feliz anyday. I trust Robertson and Logan too...but I think the Rangers' middle relief is better than the Yankees'.
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