Posted: 7/14/2010 11:04:35 PM
One interesting stat that may point out under-valued teams is their winning percentage compared to the expected payout.
For example, a team that has won 40 percent of their games over a given time period has a multiplier of 1/0.4 or 2.50, meaning you would need a payout of 2.50 to break even if you win only 40 percent of the time
If the dog is +130, the payout is 2.30 before deducting the 1.00 bet.
Since 2.30 is less than 2.50, that would rule out betting on the team if you hope to be profitable in the long term, juice notwithstanding.