Good Info On When To Bet A Favorite In Baseball

 Not a bad piece of info.

A six-year study of losing favorites of -200 or more show they have responded with a 514-295 record for a gain of 93.87 units in the next game, provided they are playing a non-divisional team. Bettors can tell from the gain of units, compared to the record, they will be again be laying some decent odds, but the risk has been worth it, as teams in this situation have won 63.5-percent of their games the next time out.

yes but not to often a team is -200 plus in back to back games.

For example take the twins from Sat. They were -244 on Sat lost 7-3 to Baltimore. Under this scenario they would be a play Sunday at -140. Which they won 6-0.

-140 is not to bad to lay knowing that you have a 63.5 % of winning. Which has been proven over 6 years. I would love to see % of RL wins also off this scenario for favorites.

Quote Originally Posted by Syddigs:

Provided that you have enough cash leftover from the previous day when they lost at -200. 

I do like your post though. The bounce back factor is big and they are obviously the stronger team if they were -200. Why not take the better price the start after a loss?

I'm assuming you are an intelligent betor and never lay over -160 EVER. So I would hope you wouldn't of laid -244 the day before. Just wait for those big favorites to dump and play the next day at a lot less juice for a 63.5% of winning %. Like I said you rarely see back to back games of -200 jucie or more.

So take the Cardinals with Carpenter?

No Houston is a DIVISION GAME. Has to be NON DIVISION GAMES. Plus St louis wasn't over -200 today anyway.

It wouldn't apply to St Louis because Houston is a division game. I'm going to start keeping track of these games in this thread. RL to.

Good info.

I always look at these types of statistical trends and ask myself "Is there a logic as to why this is happening".

I realize that adds subjectivity to the equation - but patterns are always available in historical data that can be non-causation.

In this case - can you (or anyone) come up with possible reasons why this happens?  Why a non-divisional team?  Im not knocking it, just tyring to spark some discussion on whether this is causation (which would lead to a good betting angle) or just a random pattern in data.

Sorry  I didn't answer your question. No this is just a study of teams -200 and above that lost and playing a non division team the next. Doesn't take into consideration injuries, pitching ETC. If you use those to your discreation probably hitting above 63.5%.

Well Van I like the data because it's over a 6 year period. Record is very impressive as well as the 63.5% winning percentage. I would like to know what the winning percentage was for the RL over that period. This is SU. The only thing I can do is keep track from now on. People can make up there own mind from the record

maybe the team who won the first game as a dog doesnt have the same amount of focus/motivation/desire for the second game, since they just pulled the upset last game, it is a non-divisional game? so they come out a little flat in game 2, and the big fav comes out more focused in game 2 to make up for the game 1 loss?

not the strongest of angles but only one i could come up with here, other than random pattern...

Quote Originally Posted by Johny_Utah:

Today we have the first play since I posted this trend. We have Philly coming off a loss as a -300 favotite VS non division opponent. You can get them today -138.

Does this only apply to back to back game without one or more day(s) of rest?   

The criteria is simple. A favorite of -200 or more loses the next game against a non division opponent has a 63% chance of winning. Is it a lock. NO.

Let me ask a dumb question.

If they are hitting 63% then you wouldn't want to lay -150?? is that right????

and do you take the dog if they are catching around +160 or so.

Yes, No, maybe????

It's up to you how much juice you want to lay. This trend is SU wins for a team that is a -200 favorite and above that lost and the next game against a non division opponent they won 63% of the time. They didn't calculate how often they covered they RL. I would like to know that so I will keep track.

If it so happens they would be dogs the next game. I would play them since you have a 63% chance of them winning getting plus money.