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MLB picks, Monday, April 12, 2010

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Legend
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Posted: #1
YTD: 12-5, +11.30 units
ML Favorites: 2-2, -0.03 units
ML Dogs: 5-2, +7.08 units
RL: 3-1, +2.2 units
Totals: 2-0, +2.05 units


All of these are 5Dimes overnight lines:

1. Pittsburgh Pirates ML +162, 1 to win 1.62
2. San Diego Padres ML +144, 1 to win 1.44
3. Washington Nationals ML +243, 2 to win 4.86

Best of luck to everyone tomorrow!
 
Legend
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Posted: #2
Adding:

4. Houston Astros ML +195, 1 to win 1.95


 
Veteran
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Posted: #3
 
All-Star
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Posted: #4
  Looks good kap.....hope a couple of those games come in today. I'm with you on the  Nats and Rats
 
MVP
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Posted: #5
going with the big dogs, GL with them
 
Legend
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Posted: #6
 
Legend
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Posted: #7
Mav, mmac, PP

Hoping today is a day I get lucky with a few of the big dogs

 
Captain
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Posted: #8
BOL KAP
 
Legend
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Posted: #9
Wow, Padres down to +110 on 5Dimes...
 
Legend
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Posted: #10
Louis, tasco
 
Prospect
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Posted: #11

Kap, would you still play the Pads at 108?  Seems to me the line is adjusted to Chipper being ruled out, but I figured him out to begin with so i'm a bit up in the air now.

 
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Posted: #12
Any reason your playing #1,3,4 other than the lines?


 
Hall of Fame
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Posted: #13
 
Legend
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Posted: #14
clight -- probably not now, I think most of the value is gone. Loved it at +140 or higher, not so much at +108.
 
Legend
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Posted: #15
JBril -- with the Pirates, its basically that I'm not sold that Zito is all the way back to being effective again. He shut down the Astros but that isn't saying much. Pirates have been hitting well and raked against Kershaw, another lefty who relies heavily on the curveball.  For the Nats it's mainly a value play, no way Hamels should be laying that much to any team even if it is the Phillies home opener. For Houston, I love getting this price on Wandy, who is capable of pitching well although he obviously is better at home.

HR
 
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Posted: #16
Looking at the Pirates as well... Barry has always been better away from home... GL today bud
 
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Posted: #17
Your not paying for Hamel your paying for Phils bats in a home opener vs. Marquis who they just beat the shit out of last wednesday.

NO value there IMO

Wandy has some value and that's what kept me off STL today but he didnt look all that great in his home debut and now off to STL where the bats are starting to wake up. Again home opener for a team coming off a game that they got there hopes up to win in the 9th, would scare me a little.

Ohlendorff is what is making me think Giants not Zito.

BOL today
 
Legend
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Posted: #18
 
Rookie
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Posted: #19

Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

JBril -- with the Pirates, its basically that I'm not sold that Zito is all the way back to being effective again. He shut down the Astros but that isn't saying much. Pirates have been hitting well and raked against Kershaw, another lefty who relies heavily on the curveball.  For the Nats it's mainly a value play, no way Hamels should be laying that much to any team even if it is the Phillies home opener. For Houston, I love getting this price on Wandy, who is capable of pitching well although he obviously is better at home.

HR

If Zito shut down the Astros, you don't think Adam Wainwright will!?

 
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Posted: #20

Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

JBril -- with the Pirates, its basically that I'm not sold that Zito is all the way back to being effective again. He shut down the Astros but that isn't saying much. Pirates have been hitting well and raked against Kershaw, another lefty who relies heavily on the curveball.  For the Nats it's mainly a value play, no way Hamels should be laying that much to any team even if it is the Phillies home opener. For Houston, I love getting this price on Wandy, who is capable of pitching well although he obviously is better at home.

HR

If Zito shut down the Astros and you dont think he's being effective, you really don't think Adam Wainwright will??

theres value here, but walking machine wandy against a pretty darn good line up.....

 
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Posted: #21
skins -- hey, sometimes baseball does funny things. If it were that easy, then there would be no variance and we know that's not the case. I'm just banking on perhaps Wainright having an off day. Too much value IMO to pass up, regardless of the result.


 
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Posted: #22
value to me would be +250 + 260 for an 0-6 team against an outmatched line up and pitcher
 
Rookie
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Posted: #23
heard last night watching the cards game that last season wainwright and carpenter went 24-2 combined against NL Central
 
Legend
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Posted: #24
skinsfan -- looks like we just have a disagreement as to what constitutes value



 
 
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Posted: #25

YES DOES LOL. VALUE TO ME CAN ALMOST BE THROWN OUT THE WINDOWN WHEN YOU HAVE STATS SUCH AS THE 2 ACES GOIN 24-2 LAST SEASON AGAINST THE CENTRAL. NO REASON TO PICK FOR VALUE IF YOU CAN PICK A GOOD WINNER

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