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MLB Underdog System

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
I am going to try something new on this forum. This is the first time I have used this system and want somewhere to verify that my actions.

I have seen this system in various sources and rephrasing it the best I can. The steps to this system are:
1. Choose Underdogs that are at +150 or lower.
2. If the underdog is facing one of the top 20 pitchers in the league then do not choose that game. If the pitcher that the underdog is facing is in the top 25, may want to not choose that game. Check the trends of these other five pitchers.
3. If the underdog has lost the last three games, do not choose. If the favorite has won its last three games do not choose that game.
4. Added to this system is an unders choice. If both teams have pitchers that are in the top 20 then choose this as an under pick.
5. It has been suggested that you multiply your bankroll by 0.125 then readjust daily upon profiting.

I will show the picks for each day. Odds vary so suggested to check several books for best ones.

The pitchers will be rated at this website: USAtoday Sagarin
Ratings

For the first week these ratings will be determined by last seasons ratings. Once a week I will post the top 20 pitchers for each league. If you wish to be more up to date then check out the above link.

Good luck for all of us!
 
Prospect
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Posted: #2
Sunday's pick.
Both Sabathia and Becket are in the top 20 pitchers. No play on underdog.
Since both pitcher's are in the top 20 then this pick goes as an under pick. Under 9
 
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Posted: #3
 
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Prospect
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Posted: #5
Top 20 AL Pitchers for 2009 Season
These rankings are direct from USAToday Sagarin Ratings
                                  markov                                                        OPP
                                    NPERA    DOL$     IP   ERA   SO  WN    MOB  SV  RICKEY/9IP   OPS
A   1  Greinke, Zack          KCR R  2.40  38.55$  229.1  2.16  242  16   9.81   0    8.69      .611
A   2  Hernandez, Felix       SEA R  2.43  37.39$  238.2  2.49  217  19  10.52   0    6.66      .605
A   3  Sabathia, CC           NYY L  2.76  32.98$  230.0  3.37  197  19  10.68   0    6.03      .653
A   4  Verlander, Justin      DET R  2.83  35.64$  240.0  3.45  269  19  10.80   0    8.29      .664
A   5  Halladay, Roy          TOR R  2.86  35.61$  239.0  2.79  208  17  10.32   0    6.51      .667
A   6  Lester, Jon            BOS L  2.93  29.80$  203.1  3.41  225  15  11.20   0    7.76      .667
A   7  Floyd, Gavin           CHW R  3.05  22.11$  193.0  4.06  163  11  11.15   0    5.46      .680
A   8  Beckett, Josh          BOS R  3.14  28.76$  212.1  3.86  199  17  11.02   0    6.41      .691
A   9  Garza, Matt            TBR R  3.27  20.50$  203.0  3.95  189   8  11.84   0    5.54      .695
A  10  Baker, Scott           MIN R  3.29  23.66$  200.0  4.37  162  15  10.89   0    5.40      .709
                                   markov                                                        OPP
                                    NPERA    DOL$     IP   ERA   SO  WN    MOB  SV  RICKEY/9IP   OPS
A  11  Washburn, Jarrod       DET L  3.29  18.31$  176.0  3.78  100   9  10.94   0    3.17      .696
A  12  Feldman, Scott         TEX R  3.34  19.46$  189.2  4.08  113  17  11.96   0    2.40      .693
A  13  Anderson, Brett        OAK L  3.35  19.23$  175.1  4.06  150  11  11.70   0    5.00      .711
A  14  Lackey, John           LAA R  3.42  19.29$  176.1  3.83  139  11  11.89   0    4.20      .716
A  15  Weaver, Jered          LAA R  3.43  26.75$  211.0  3.75  174  16  11.35   0    5.08      .723
A  16  Jackson, Edwin         DET R  3.51  24.76$  214.0  3.62  161  13  11.57   0    4.21      .726
A  17  Danks, John            CHW L  3.57  22.38$  200.1  3.77  149  13  11.77   0    3.92      .726
A  18  Pettitte, Andy         NYY L  3.58  14.93$  194.2  4.16  148  14  12.62   0    3.22      .722
A  19  Niemann, Jeff          TBR R  3.63  16.75$  180.2  3.94  125  13  12.60   0    2.62      .728
A  20  Burnett, A.J.          NYY R  3.69  16.08$  207.0  4.04  195  13  13.04   0    4.43      .728




 
Prospect
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Posted: #6
Top 20 NL Pitchers
These rankings are direct from USAToday Sagarin Ratings

markov                                                        OPP
                                    NPERA    DOL$     IP   ERA   SO  WN    MOB  SV  RICKEY/9IP   OPS
A   1  Lincecum, Tim          SFG R  2.11  35.01$  225.1  2.48  261  15   9.67   0    9.76      .561
A   2  Carpenter, Chris       STL R  2.29  30.78$  192.2  2.24  144  17   9.39   0    6.34      .581
A   3  Kershaw, Clayton       LAD L  2.47  22.89$  171.0  2.79  185   8  11.11   0    7.63      .588
A   4  Vazquez, Javier        ATL R  2.52  33.37$  219.1  2.87  238  15   9.40   0    9.37      .612
A   5  Johnson, Josh          FLA R  2.68  28.11$  209.0  3.23  191  15  10.68   0    6.55      .629
A   6  Haren, Dan             ARI R  2.72  32.65$  229.1  3.14  223  14   9.18   0    8.57      .635
A   7  Jimenez, Ubaldo        COL R  2.84  26.41$  218.0  3.47  198  15  11.48   0    5.70      .635
A   8  Wainwright, Adam       STL R  2.88  32.95$  233.0  2.63  212  19  11.01   0    6.18      .646
A   9  Lilly, Ted             CHC L  3.01  25.54$  177.0  3.10  151  12   9.61   0    7.07      .664
A  10  Wolf, Randy            LAD L  3.06  26.10$  214.1  3.23  160  11  10.16   0    5.56      .660
                                   markov                                                        OPP
                                    NPERA    DOL$     IP   ERA   SO  WN    MOB  SV  RICKEY/9IP   OPS
A  11  Cain, Matt             SFG R  3.10  28.09$  217.2  2.89  171  14  10.75   0    5.32      .670
A  12  Jurrjens, Jair         ATL R  3.11  27.44$  215.0  2.60  152  14  11.05   0    4.31      .660
A  13  Pineiro, Joel          STL R  3.14  23.55$  214.0  3.49  105  15  10.64   0    2.78      .673
A  14  Wells, Randy           CHC R  3.25  18.91$  165.1  3.05  104  12  11.81   0    2.85      .680
A  15  Santana, Johan         NYM L  3.27  22.86$  166.2  3.13  146  13  11.07   0    5.81      .691
A  16  Lee, Cliff             PHI L  3.30  26.82$  231.2  3.22  181  14  11.38   0    4.65      .695
A  17  Rodriguez, Wandy       HOU L  3.32  26.98$  205.2  3.02  193  14  11.38   0    6.07      .695
A  18  Zambrano, Carlos       CHC R  3.36  14.66$  169.1  3.77  152   9  12.86   0    4.22      .685
A  19  Gallardo, Yovani       MIL R  3.43  22.12$  185.2  3.73  204  13  12.07   0    6.82      .701
A  20  Billingsley, Chad      LAD R  3.45  18.46$  196.1  4.03  179  12  12.19   0    5.01      .703
                                   markov                                                        OPP


 
Prospect
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Posted: #7
These are Monday 4/5/10 picks for the Underdog system.

Florida NY Mets Under 1.25 Unit

Pittsburgh +125 Duke Pick 1.25 unit

Toronto +120 Marcum Pick 1.25 unit


Colorado +107 Jimenez Pick 1.25 unit

Detroit/Kansas City take the under 1.25 unit


Chi Cubs +110 Pick 1.25 unit

Minnesota/LA Angels take the under 1.25 unit




 
Prospect
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Posted: #8
I will be posting units next to each play of 1.25 units from a 100 unit bankroll. I hope to keep track each day of where the bankroll stands using this system.

Today there was a loss on the Under between the Yankees and Boston, so the BR is now at 98.75.

In todays plays, those posted as unders are those with pitchers in the top 20 pitchers of each league facing each other. The underdog picks are plays where underdog teams are not going up against a top 20 pitcher.
 
Captain
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Posted: #9
BoL This Season .
 
Prospect
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by BruceM5:

These are Monday 4/5/10 picks for the Underdog system.

Florida NY Mets Under 1.25 Unit-Lost

Pittsburgh +125 Duke Pick 1.25 unit - Won 1.56 Unit

Toronto +120 Marcum Pick 1.25 unit - Lost


Colorado +107 Jimenez Pick 1.25 unit- Won 1.34 Unit

Detroit/Kansas City take the under 1.25 unit Lost


Chi Cubs +110 Pick 1.25 unit Lost

Minnesota/LA Angels take the under 1.25 unit Lost


After todays games on opening day this system has gone from 100 units to 95.40 Units for a loss of 4.6 units.

Now on to Tuesday.




 
Prospect
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Posted: #11
I have found three games that fit the MLB Underdog System for Tuesday.

They are:
1. Minnesota +110 vs Angels
 Minnesota is pick for 1.25 units

2. Seattle +110 vs Oakland
Seattle is pick for 1.25 units.
(In pick 1 and 2 pitchers are not in the top 20 pitchers.

3. Yankees (Burnett) vs Red Sox (Lester)
Both top 20 pitchers. Choice is Under 9.5 for 1.25 units.

Good Luck all!!

 
Prospect
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Posted: #12
Thank you all who have wished me luck! It is appreciated,
Bruce
 
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Posted: #13
 
Prospect
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Posted: #14
There are 8 plays today in this system. Trying this to see if it actually works. So far down 5.72 units from a base of 100 units. I have heard positive remarks about this though. Today I am going to list the plays and then my work sheet of how I got these plays. I understand it is like flipping a coin but hopefully that coin has better than a 50-50 percentage.

Good Luck All!!!

Today's plays:

Washington +145

Mets +105

Boston-New York Under

Cleveland +150

Kansas City +115

San Diego +120

Minnesota +130

Seattle +110

______________________________________________

Worksheet:

Colorado Rockies Aaron Cook -110

Milwaukee Brewers Doug Davis -110

no play even

San Francisco Giants 2-0

Houston Astros 0-2

no play losing streak


Los Angeles Dodgers Clayton Kershaw 3

Pittsburgh Pirates Ross Ohlendorf

no play Kershaw ranked number 3


Philadelphia Phillies Cole Hamels -165

Washington Nationals Jason Marquis +145

This is a play on. Not above +150 and Hamels not in top 20 pitchers

Pick Washington


Baltimore Orioles Jeremy Guthrie +190

Tampa Bay Rays Matt Garza -230

No Play Odds below 150

Chicago Cubs Ryan Dempster 135

Atlanta Braves Jair Jurrjens -135

No play Odds ore ok but Jurrjens was rated number 12 last year

Florida Marlins Ricky Nolasco -125

New York Mets John Maine +105

This is a play. Take New York Mets


New York Yankees Andy Pettite

Boston Red Sox John Lackey

Both Pitchers are in top 20.

Pick the Under here.


St. Louis Cardinals Chris Carpenter -145

Cincinnati Reds Johnny Cueto +125

No Play Carpenter is in top 20


Toronto Blue Jays Bryan Tallet +170

Texas Rangers Rich Harden -200

No Play. Odds below +150


Cleveland Indians Fausto Carmona +150

Chicago White Sox Jake Peavy -170

This is a play. Pick Cleveland


Detroit Tigers Max Scherzer -135

Kansas City Royals Luke Hochevar +115

This is a play take Kansas City.


San Diego Padres Kevin Correia +120

Arizona Diamondbacks Ian Kennedy -140

This is a play. Take San Diego


Minnesota Twins Carl Pavano +130

Los Angeles Angels Ervin Santana -130

This is a play take Minnesota.


Seattle Mariners Ryan Rowland-Smith +110

Oakland Athletics Justin Duchscherer+ -130

This is a play. Take Seattle

 
Prospect
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Posted: #15
Saragin pitchers for 2009 are still available to view? 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #16
Wainright is pitching for the Cards, not Carpenter.
 
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Posted: #17
So, curious, what has been the early outcome for you using this system?
After two days, and it seems like a good handful of plays .... what are your stats and units +/-?

GOOD LUCK!!!
 
Prospect
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Posted: #18
Sagarin ratings are no longer up for 2009. See above post for final 2009 ratings.

Thanks for the correction on the Cardinals. It was a no play and since Wainwright was in top 20 pitchers remains a no play.

Sorry about not putting number of units on my latest post. The answer is after 2 days I am down 5.72 units. Very curious as how today is going to go. You are right there are a lot of plays, but from reading these systems it was said that you can have anywhere from 3 to 9 plays in a day.

Thanks all for your interest. As I said in my first post, this is new to me and I am using this forum as a way to verify my actions using this system. I am just getting started. Interested to see where it is going to take me.

Good luck all!!!
Bruce
 
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Posted: #19
Be smart, wait until May to start betting baseball
 
Prospect
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Posted: #20
I used to have a link to a site with all the information of every daily game with pitchers rank, odds, win/loss streak, but I can't find the site, does anyone know which site is it?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #21
There are three plays for Thursday.
They are:
Toronto +145
Detroit +100
Florida +105

On Wednesday the picks went 4-4 with a profit of 1.08 units.

Good Luck all

 
Prospect
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Posted: #22
Wow!
Went 3-0 on Thursday!
Toronto, Detroit and Florida all won. This system started at 100 units and now stands at 99.73 units.

I have made a couple of modifications that I will probably follow through with until May. They are if the there is a streak of 0-2 or 2-0,or more, I will not play that game. In May when there are more solid records I will change to the normal no play if 3-0 for favorite team or 0-3 for underdog teams.

With that in mind there are three plays for Friday.
1. Pittsburgh +120 (BetUS)
2. San Francisco Even (BetUS)
3. Chicago Cubs +115 (BetUS)

Good Luck all!!!
 
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Posted: #23

Quote Originally Posted by PatrickBateman:

Be smart, wait until May to start betting baseball

This post is spot on,,,,  Give this system a month to get up and going...  The ratings will then have some substance... 

 I used this system about 5 years ago, and it actually worked pretty good. (a little above average)  My problem then,,,,,as it seems it is now,,,, was money management...   I only used it for small amounts for only about half a season....

GL with this

 
Prospect
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Posts: 58
Posted: #24
Hey all, first a note of caution. The previous posts are correct in using caution with this system. At this point I am working this system on paper. Please wait till May for the season to firm up before playing it.

I am doing this as I want to use this system all year long. The first month as I said is on paper. The reason for this is to get in the habit that of doing it daily. So use caution with this system.

Now on to what came up today.
We went 1-2 on the day.San Francisco won. Pittsburgh and the Cubs lost.

5 plays for Saturday came up.
They are:
1. Cleveland +135 (BetUS)
2. Chicago Cubs Even (BetUS)
3. Nationals +110 (BetUS)
4. San Diego Padres (BetUS)
5. Boston/Kansas City Under 7.5 (BetUS)

System Started at 100 Units
Currently at 98.48 Units
For a current loss of 1.52 Units

Good Luck all!!!
 
 
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Posted: #25
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