Sell the house (Cards/Dodgers)

The series line is a pick??? LA is a garbage team that got into the playoffs based on a fantastic start. St. Louis has a massive pitching edge and I'd say a massive hitting edge too. St. Louis has Pujols and Holliday while LA has absolutely nothing. Manny is total shit now.

Carpenter/Wolf game one. Who are you picking?

Kershaw/Wainwright game two. WW has lost ONE start on the road all season. (14-1 team record)

LA will be lucky to get a split here and if they play both games in St. Louis they will be lucky to get a split there too. If it somehow gets to game 5 you know Carpenter will be on the mound and St. Louis still a solid favorite. If you're scared at that point you could hedge as St. Louis will certainly be favored but I highly doubt this gets to a fifth game.

Another baseball post from someone who thinks they're an expert but doesn't know a thing about how to analyze baseball. Where do I begin?

I'd say a massive hitting edge too.

You might say that. But then you'd be wrong.

wOBA

Dodgers: .331
Cardinals: .325

wRAA

Dodgers: 10
Cardinals: -18

wRC

Dodgers: 771
Cardinals: 716

OPS

Dodgers: .756
Cardinals: .749

OBP

Dodgers: .345
Cardinals: .332

BB %

Dodgers: 9.8%
Cardinals: 8.7


St. Louis has a massive pitching edge

Again, myth.

ERA

Dodgers: 3.42
Cardinals: 3.64

FIP

Dodgers: 3.81
Cardinals: 3.81

WHIP

Dodgers: 1.26
Cardinals: 1.29

Strikeouts per 9 innings

Dodgers: 7.71
Cardinals: 6.54

And let's also check out the HUGE thing you neglect to even mention or consider (especially important, considering the studies that have highlighted the impact of this thing in the playoffs).

It's the people you have to turn to when the game's on the line. You know, the bullpen.

Bullpen ERA

Dodgers - 3.13
Cardinals - 3.60

Bullpen FIP

Dodgers: 3.76
Cardinals: 4.29

HR/9 innings

Dodgers: .74
Cardinals: .89

Strikeouts/9

Dodgers: 8.1
Cardinals: 6.98

Walks issued per 9

Dodgers: 3.77
Cardinals: 3.98


LA is a garbage team that got into the playoffs based on a fantastic start.

This is true, but all teams have hot and cold runs. To make it seem like they got to 40 games .500 and scuffled would be pretty short-sighted and it would cost you money.

The Dodgers had a record above .500 in every month of the year except one. That was August, when they went 14-15. There's reason to believe they might have gotten a little unlucky in that month, too, since they outscored opponents 131-98 in August.

Even with their 5-game losing streak in the final week of the season, they posted a 15-12 record in September.

So, genius, let's look at the Cardinals and their hot end to the year.

The Cardinals were 14-15 in September and October. They had three losing months this season.

Sure, they were 20-6 in August, but since you're discounting anything that happened before a team's finish to the season, that shouldn't really matter.

Doh!

St. Louis has Pujols and Holliday while LA has absolutely nothing.

Pujols is a monster. Holiday is a semi-monster. But you do see those team offensive numbers up above, don't you? I wonder how those got that way?

Oh, that's right. Beyond that, it's Ryan Ludwick (.778 OPS), Colby Rasmus (.718), Mark Derosa (.705), Brendan Ryan (.750), and a host of other below average offensive players.

LA has absolutely nothing

Let's see here. Andre Ethier (.870), Matt Kemp (.843), Casey Blake (.831), Orlando Hudson (.771). That's four pretty good complimentary bats to throw along with Manny.

It's more impressive still when we consider that Andre Ethier OPSed .962 against righties this year. Last I checked, that's what the Cards will bring with them.

Manny is total shit now

Why don't people just deal in reality and make their bets accordingly. Why do you decide your bet before you deal with the facts, then twist reality to make yourself feel better about what you've decided? The human condition is insane, especially among people who risk their hard earned money.

Let's be real here. No, Manny didn't post a 1.200 OPS in the 2nd half like he did in the first and last year.

But he did have an OBP of .405 in August. And he did have an OBP of .385 in September. Let's not be foolish. He's still a guy who hit righties at a .965 clip this year, and he still takes just about the best at-bats in the game of baseball (behind Pujols).

Kershaw/Wainwright game two. WW has lost ONE start on the road all season. (14-1 team record)

Using win-loss records to analyze pitching performance is a good indication that should never talk about baseball again.

Clayton Kershaw is a better pitcher than Adam Wainwright. He's got better stuff, and he's been filthy at home. He's the guy who just struck out the first 5 Rockies he saw in a game they desperately needed, and sat down 9 straight (7 of them on strikeouts).

If you want me to, I can pull a shit-ton of DIPS to shed some light on the point. That point is, Kershaw is better and has been better than Adam Wainwright up to this point.

Honestly, the numbers don't lie on all of this. The Dodgers have a better offense, a better bullpen, and starting pitching that's only marginally worse. They have home field advantage and I didn't even mention the fact that they have better defense.

The Dodgers were 12.4 runs better than the Cards with the glove this year, according to UZR.

Oh yeah, then there's the Dodgers' more capable bench.

I hope you've learned something today.

NICE   

Fielding-Independent Pitching (FIP):

Kershaw: 3.07
Wainwright: 3.11

BAA:

Kershaw: .198 (In fairness, Kershaw's benefited from a lower batting average on balls in play, but still)
Wainwright: .247

Kershaw strikes out quite a few more guys, while Wainwright walks fewer guys. Those are a bit of a wash.

Also worth noting that Kershaw's allowed an absurdly low number of home runs per 9 this season. About half of what Wainwright's allowed. Kershaw induces around 14% infield pop ups to compliment the 40% GB rate.

He's got a fastball that's 23 runs above average this season. Wainwright's fastball has been more than 13 runs below average. 36 run different there, that Wainwright doesn't quite make up with his breaking stuff, especially considering Kershaw's got a curveball to match his.

In short, it's two guys who aren't worlds apart. One of them has significantly more upside and has been slightly better according to most Defense-Independent Pitching Statistics (DIPS), while the other has racked up the stats that only fans take notice of (wins).

Six in one hand, half dozen in the other more than likely. But that's the point of the post. The assertion that there's some massive advantage in the Cards pitching is false.

Given the defense behind Kershaw, the lineup that's superior, and the bullpens, I'd venture to say that the Dodgers would win more than they'd lose if you matched Kershaw and Wainwright 100 times in Dodger Stadium.

Very nice post TigerPaws. I respect your opinion and your stats are great but I'm going with what I've actually seen. I say those stats are misleading because 1) They include stats with Manny on roids until May 6th and 2) They include Cards stats without Holliday. I think it's safe to say those stats do not accurately represent the teams that will take the field for this playoff series because the Dodgers with this Manny are different and the Cards with Holliday are different.

You can debate LAD has a better pitching staff but I'm not buying it. The overall pitching stats may be similar or even favor LAD but this is the playoffs and only the best will be going. The full season stats are cluttered with stats from other starters like Wellemeyer and Billingsley was pretty good earlier but has gone in the tank. I am interested in comparing Carpenter to Wolf, Kershaw to Wainwright, and Pineiro to ??? I guess Billingsley or Garland. I will take the Cards three pitchers over the Dodgers in all three matchups. As for Kershaw being better than Wainwright, I guess it's debatable but they did square off in LA on 8/19 and I find this a great game to use as it has the Cards current team and Manny after the suspension. Kershaw 3.2 IP, 98 pitches, 5 hits, 4 walks, 2 runs (very fortunate not to get hammered) Wainwright 7 IP, 4 hits, 2 runs on 2 solo shots. Cards win the game 3-2 as Broxton gives up a run in the 9th.

May the best team win. I love my chances with the Cards but if the Dodgers win then congrats.

Since you hijacked someone else's thread, what would you say to the fact that when they played head to head this season against ST. Louis's best two pitchers, here is what happened:

Carpenter 7IP 1ER Cardinals 6 Dodgers 1
Wainwright 8IP 0ER Cardinals 10 Dodgers 0
Carpenter 8IP 2ER Cardinals 3 Dodgers 2 (At Dodger Stadium)
Wainwright 7IP 2ER Cardinals 3 Dodgers 2 (At Dodger Stadium)

Don't let those stats sway you, bet away, I want better juice with the better team

Cardinals all the way - totally agree Peter Griffin

Wow. Nice thread. GL to all.

Agree.. St Louis should winthis series..

You havent been paying attention if you think Wainwright vs Kershaw is a mismatch

Dodgers fan here and the Cards have their # but the Dodgers are the better team

Here's the thing I don't get.

The Dodgers play 162 games to the best record in the NL, playing in the toughest division in the NL.

They do it with a combination of great pitching, above average offense, and above average defense. They come into the playoffs with an enormous amount of depth and probably the best bullpen in the majors. They have a shutdown lefty out of the pen and arguably the best closer in baseball this year.

They're at home. They're rested. They're healthy.

Yet people are writing them off. It's bizarre. I think lost in all of the hoopla about Pujols/Holiday/Wainwright/Carpenter is that the Cardinals have people like Brendan Ryan and Colby Rasmus taking a ton of at-bats.

Yuck.

Oh well, should be great baseball and thrilling moments so we all win in the end.

I bet the playoffs and WS small so I can enjoy the games more. Mariners are out so I have no care who wins in the end. Wouldn't mind seeing the Yankees NOT win but whatever.

I think this one goes five games and the Dodgers pull it out.

Shot in the dark though.

Stl at pick-em is worth it but -130 now.