Posted: 10/2/2009 9:13:31 PM
fwiw . . . i'm not so sure Snell is a worthy favorite tonight, certainly his numbers have been better with Seattle than they were with Pittsburgh, it just might be that Wak and Adair are the kick in the behind that Snell needed. . . on that case alone, i could back him as a medium to heavy dog when the mariners are playing well. but i'm not sure he's worth the going rate tonight.
also, the mariners are 9-2 at home this month, they seem to be enjoying the cold weather, and tonight will be the coldest night they've had since very early in the season.
snell is also due some regression in his babpip, his strong run with the mariners has brough his overal rate down to just below the mlb average, but when you look at what he's done over the past few weeks, you discover numbers that just aren't sustainable over the long haul. that doesn't mean all those balls find holes tonight, but it does lead me to think there's isn't much value in backing him at these prices.
i think this series will be dictated by the rangers attitude muscle. will they play hard and be focused ? or are they just going through the motions ? i don't know that answer, those that do have an inside track on this series. i think the mariners will play hard and maintain focus throughout this series, if the rangers follow suit, i think the mariners win 2 of 3, but i think the sunday prices will be tough to swallow if backing seattle. if the rangers just show up, i think a mariners sweep in a clear possibilty.