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2 totals we feel the books are gambling on today

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Posted: #1
A pickem ML with a RL juiced 105/95, they're taking over money and just juicing the 8.5.
 
OVER 8.5 KC/CWS-RL only 58/58 and they're taking under money and just juicing the 8.5.
 
Good luck today.  Will update record later.
 
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Posted: #2
I got the over in the sox game, Not sure Zack and Jose can shut anyone down
 
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Posted: #3
Quote Originally Posted by Orangemen44:

I got the over in the sox game, Not sure Zack and Jose can shut anyone down
Alot of people dont realize the ball flys out of that ball in day games
 
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Posted: #4
ballpark
 
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Posted: #5
Add 1 unit plays on
 
OVER 9.5 HOUSTON/MARLINS
OVER 10 LAA/CLEVELAND
UNDER 9.5 TAMPA/BALTIMORE
 
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Posted: #6
 BOL MH...back to your bread and butter...you are a great totals capper!
 
Legend
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Posted: #7
Who is "we"?
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Who is "we"?

My two brothers and several friends who've pooled money and resources.    I get asked that question alot, why does it annoy so many people?

Thanks JT.

 
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Posted: #9
We is the plural form of I???
 
SHASKA!
 
Legend
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Posted: #10
 
Legend
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by MistakeHitter:

My two brothers and several friends who've pooled money and resources.    I get asked that question alot, why does it annoy so many people?

Thanks JT.

It doesnt annoy me, just wondering.

 

GL

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Legend
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by MistakeHitter:

A pickem ML with a RL juiced 105/95, they're taking over money and just juicing the 8.5.
 
OVER 8.5 KC/CWS-RL only 58/58 and they're taking under money and just juicing the 8.5.
 
Good luck today.  Will update record later.

What is the "58/58" referenced above?

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Prospect
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Posted: #13
as always MH, and thanks for sharing.
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

What is the "58/58" referenced above?

At the time it was the difference in the juice on the ML and RL.  Right now I'm looking at KC-127 MLand +115RL which is a 42 cent difference and CWS +117 and -135 for 42 cent difference.  Very low difference in juice for 8,5 total. 
 
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Posted: #15
52 sorry.  haven't slept lately
 
Legend
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Posted: #16
So what does that represent to you?
 
Sorry if you have explained this before, I havent seen it.
 
What does that ratio mean to you?
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Legend
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by veronica27:

you never came back on the thread yesterday .. i see you are really we ?

why would you come on a thread and tell someone what and how they should post anyway ? you on some good shit aint ya ?

young lil mf

WTF are you talking about?

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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

So what does that represent to you?
 
Sorry if you have explained this before, I havent seen it.
 
What does that ratio mean to you?
Basically it means the books dont feel a run in that game has a lot of value doesn't it.   Not as much as say the SF/Cincinati game.
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by veronica27:

you never came back on the thread yesterday .. i see you are really we ?

why would you come on a thread and tell someone what and how they should post anyway ? you on some good shit aint ya ?

young lil mf

Yes wtf are you talking about.  
 
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Posted: #20
Anytime we can buy a run and a half for 52 cents in a game with an 8,5 total we are on the over.    Just like anytime a run and half cost -110 or -100 in a 10 total we are on the under.(weather, ballpark, umpire permitting)  Doing very well
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by veronica27:

you came on the thread i posted yesterday telling me what and how i should post .. then you never come back .. i offer feedback and try to enlighten people .. no bs . just straight ..
then i see the person (NAME) that started this thread gives me asshole smart alec feeback on the thread of mine you tryed to orchestrate from yesterday ... i dont give a f either way ..
 
but who are you anyway ?
my name is EJ
i am 41 and have been involved in wagering sports since the late 80s ..
All I did was laugh at you telling people to "get a notebook, call it your strategy notebook:  cmon dont turn this thread into a clusterfuck
 
Legend
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by MistakeHitter:

Anytime we can buy a run and a half for 52 cents in a game with an 8,5 total we are on the over.    Just like anytime a run and half cost -110 or -100 in a 10 total we are on the under.(weather, ballpark, umpire permitting)  Doing very well

OK - very interesting.

Couple of quesitons...

In a high juice game, sometimes you see a ML of -250, and a RL of -120.  That is a 130 difference.  Now if the total is 10, you would bet the under?  This example is a yankees regular occurance.

What are your thresholds for doing this?

Doesnt a road teams difference betweent he ML and RL factor differently than a home teams?

Thanks in advance.

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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by veronica27:

you came on the thread i posted yesterday telling me what and how i should post .. then you never come back .. i offer feedback and try to enlighten people .. no bs . just straight ..
then i see the person (NAME) that started this thread gives me asshole smart alec feeback on the thread of mine you tryed to orchestrate from yesterday ... i dont give a f either way ..
 
but who are you anyway ?
my name is EJ
i am 41 and have been involved in wagering sports since the late 80s ..

Nice to meet you EJ.

May I suggest prozac?

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Legend
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Posted: #24
Another question (and most important)

Do you have any historical statistics using these thresholds?
 
ie;  "when a home team has a ML/RL difference of 80 cents or less, and the total is 9 or more, the under hits 65.4% of the time for the last 3 MLB seasons"
 
 
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Legend
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Posted: #25
I also think you might be misinterpreting the reasons behind the smaller ML/RL ratios.
 
I think it has more to do with variance than the "value of a run".
 
In other words, today in KC they feel that IF KC wins, they have a high likelihood of winning by more than one run.  Why?  Maybe because Contreras is one of the most inconsistent pitchers in MLB, he will likely pitch a shutout or let up 5 runs in 4 innings.
 
That variance doesnt have much effect or relation to the O/U - but it would have a relational effect on the ML/RL ratio.
 
Just a thought.
 
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