Posted:
#1
24-22 YTD
Cincinatti Reds ML (+112)
Last outing Arroyo was horrible. Pulled early, I have to expect he bounces back with his solid road ERA against an inept Arizona offense that just happened to get the lumber popping yesterday against a team thats among the worst in the league. Also, Arroyo could even come out tonight and be a little dicey by walking guys and putting them on the bases, however, I think he can do enough to get himself out of jams with this Arizona offense that just dosent seem to be consistant enough (hence why I can't see them getting it going a day after a 10 run game).
As far as the other side, the Reds bats have been alive and well in their last two series vs. the Brewers and Cards. They had games in that span without Votto and Phillips and still managed to put up solid run counts, they have a solid bench. Garland has been the D-backs #2 guy so far in my mind, however, his W's ar coming aginst teams as bad offensively as his own team (SD, SF, COL). Not saying he hasnt been productive for them, however with the Reds swinging well lately, as well as coming back yesterday gives them plenty of confidence. They know all they have to do to win this game is continue to do that since the D-backs more than likely will not out hit them.
All of this has made my decision and I am taking the Reds here, biggest factor for me is Arroyo boucning back after a bad start, which he has been able to do before, as well as his solid Road ERA.
Atlanta Braves/New York Mets O 7runs
Lowe vs. Santana...Normally I would leave this game alone. Mainly because the Mets can't ever seem to give this ace any runs. That course of thinking has changed for me in this particular game due to their recent success (albeit vs. the buccos), this has to boost their egos. Plus, doing all of this at their new home is establishing a good home field situation for them. Lowe is good, however, with it being the Braves and them being on a roll I like them to continue swinging it out tonight for 5+ runs.
As far as Santana goes, he is obviously the X factor of this games total. The braves have been the team that has hit him the best since coming to the NL, IMO. He is 0-3 w/ two ND's. The history of the toal for Santana vs. the Braves is Under's hitting. But he is bound to give up some runs sometime, I know that is not a great argument, but it has to happen sometime.
With that said, I think the Mets give Lowe some trouble tonight, doing enough to contribute to the games total to make it go over the 7 mark.
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