Posted:
#1
Phillies at Rays
(Moyer vs Kazmir)
If you do not think that Game 1 is the most important game of this series then consider that the Game 1 winner has gone on to win 10 of the last 11 World Series.
In tonights game we have Cole Hamels going against Scott Kazmir. Both wiegh in at 190 lbs., both are lefties, and both are starting their 4th game of the playoffs. That is where the similarities stop.
Hamels has been lights out in his three playoff starts. He has gone an average of 7.33 innings in each start and has allowed only 3 runs on 13 hits! He has given up one long ball while striking out 22 and walking only 6! His ERA in three starts is 1.23. Let that sink in, 3 starts, 3 wins, 1.23 ERA, 3 earned runs, 22 strike outs, and only 6 walks.
Kazmir, in his three starts, is 1-0 with 2 no decisions. He has gone an average of 5.1 innings and has allowed 7 runs on 16 hits. He has given up 3 long balls while striking out 13 and walking only 8.
The main difference between these two is control. Hamels maintains excellent command of the strike zone and relies on getting ahead in the count with his fast ball so that he can come back with his off speed stuff. he has no real breaking ball to speak of and relies almost exclusively on those two pitches. He is able to throw his change up in a way that looks fastball all the way and that is his strike out pitch as hitters are usually way ahead of the pitch. Kazmir, on the other hand, relies heavily on his breaking stuff. Generally he is out of the strike zone with it and relies on hitters chasing his nasty breaking pitches for strike outs. When clubs show patience at the plate he gets in trouble. The two pitchers contrast shows in their stats. Hamels has gone a full inning longer on average than Kazmir this year at 6.9 innings per outing verse 5.6 innings per outing for Kazmir. This has equated to Hamels pitching 75 more innings than Kazmir. Even though he has thrown 75 more innings, Hamels has 17 less walks for the year than Kazmir. He also has 30 more strikeouts, but that is mostly due to the extra innings pitched.
The key to this game tonight, in my opinion, will be the patience of the Phillies' batters. If they are patient and make Kazmir throw strikes they win. Period, end of subject. They just have to be patient and not chase his breaking stuff. If they chase and allow Kazmir to go 6 or more innings, it could very well spell trouble. Hamels will be Hamels. The main thing for him is to not leave anything hanging over the plate, basically do not make a mistake. One thing about these Rays, and we saw it very clearly in the Boston Series, if you make a mistake they make you pay for it! Hamels has to get ahead of the hitter with that fastball, and then he can confuse the crap out of them with his off speed stuff.
I am looking for another strong outing from Hamels and patience by the Phillies batters. I need to see that Tampa bullpen. If they are patient, we could see the bullpen early.
Phillies (-107) 50 Units
Disclaimer: I am 100% a PHILLIES HOMER.
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