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Posted: #1
yesterday 0-3 -645
week -730
 
One thing I don't want today is a 2-0 lead going into the 8th inning because then I'll know I'm doomed like last night when my bets both failed to hold on and surrendered 7 runs.
I pumped up Ordonez yesterday and he was in position to change the outcome of the game and what did he do....bounce into a double play with bases loaded.
Congrats to Sinatra101 and Dunnomate  for taking a nice dog in Tampa Bay.
 
Washington +215 (Perez/Pelfrey) 200/415
They showed some resiliency last night when they fell behind 5-2 and immediately bounced back to score 5 runs. I know they didn't hold on and lost but what is important is they didn't fold. All I ask when I take a dog is the underdog play tough and be in a position to win. If they lose 5-4 or in some type of one run game I can accept it. As bettors we can't win all the time. Odalis Perez is one of those pitchers that has the potential to thow a solid game. Bettors shit on pitchers like him, Wolf, Fossum etc, etc,etc but these type pitchers are moneymakers. They are usually hugh dogs but they have the experience and knowledge to get batters out.
 
Detroit -210 (Gallaraga/Gallagher) 420/200 over 9 -115 172.50/150
I normally don't bet on big favs like this but I think Detroit redeems themselves this afternoon. Also, when I bet on big favs I name the starting pitchers, as I did here, because if you don't and the starter you bet on is scratched your bet is still valid. I'd hate to have a shit pitcher replace an injured starter and I'm laying -210 on him because I made the mistake of not naming the starter. Most bettors know this but newbies may not so I mentioned it.
I've been against Gallaraga for his last 3 starts but today I like this spot. I really think the Tiger bats hit Sean Gallagher. Years ago I was at a golf tournament and Wade Boggs was there too. Because he was a dynomite hitter I asked him if he liked hitting in the day or at night better. His answer was hands down he liked hitting in the day much better. Knowing this I never bet an under during day games.
 
I'll add more later after I catch a few more smallmouth bass. Someone on covers was nice enough to post this site, stoogetv.com, so we can watch the games on our computers. I used it yesterday and am passing it along. When you are on the site, on the right is a dialog box, they will post liks to the game. You do need real player on your computer to view the games.
 
GL
 
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Posted: #2
i like the yankees alot and i love sabathia..what do you think?
 
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Posted: #3
Quote Originally Posted by sinatra101:

i like the yankees alot and i love sabathia..what do you think?

Although Sabathia is solid I just could not put money on him today because of the slumping Brewers. If you lay the 1.5 runs you just know the Brewers will win by one run. Arroyo was solid his last start and has won his last 4. The under might be the play but I don't bet unders on day games as I stated.

Angels - 11 hits and 9 runs, 10 hits and 3 runs, 10 hits and 8 runs in Pettitte's last 3 starts vs LAA . The Angels are a very good hitting team but Pettitte has the ability to shut them down. I like the over but didn't play it.

GL if you take the Yanks

 
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Posted: #4
FWIW:

Cincinnati at Milwaukee, 2:05 ET
Bronson Arroyo (R) vs. CC Sabathia (L)
Arroyo: 3-0 TSR, 1.61 ERA L3 starts
Sabathia: Mil 2-6 at home vs. Cincinnati


 
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Posted: #5
GL
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by BigWaveDave:

FWIW:

Cincinnati at Milwaukee, 2:05 ET
Bronson Arroyo (R) vs. CC Sabathia (L)
Arroyo: 3-0 TSR, 1.61 ERA L3 starts
Sabathia: Mil 2-6 at home vs. Cincinnati
Milwaukee is 2-4 at home vs the Reds but how many of those 6 games did they face Sabathia? CC is 2-0 and has let up 12 hits and 2 runs vs the Reds this year. He has the potential to 1, 2, or 3 hit the Reds and both pitchers can throw a 0-0 9-inning game only to have the bullpens finish.
 
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Posted: #7
wouldn't be smart money to lay money on cincy?
 
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Posted: #8

C.C. SABATHIA vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
SABATHIA is 4-0 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 2.23 and a WHIP of 1.071.
His team's record is 7-2 (+4.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 7-1. (+6.1 units)

Only intended to support your statement the other day that a team needs to score runs to win. 

No matter how well the pitcher is pitching, without the run support to back it up..............

It was the reason you took SD against the slumping Brewers the other night.  A slumping and "ahem" - choking team as you have pointed out - that has scored 1 run, 4 runs, 4 runs at home AND is 1-7 the last 8 games at home versus CINC - a team with a starting pitcher that has pitched very well lately, for a team that has won 4 of their last 5.

This used to be Toronto's dilema when Roy Halliday pitched - no run support.  He always pitched solid games, and the ones he lost would be low scoring affairs where the Jays gave him no run support.

We shall see............go Tigers and Nationals!!!!  
 
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Posted: #9
Chilito, I watched LAD/SD game last night. SD was robbed by the sh*tty call from the umpire. Replay clearly showed A. Gonzalez was safe at home plate off Headly's double to the right of outfield in bottom of the third inning. That f*cking ump consistently call in fav of LAD. That same ump cost me other unit last time I bet on LAA as well.
 
Sometime, you have to wonder what the heck we throw our money on sport wagers when the outcome of the game was heavily controlled by those dammm refs or umps. And one of them just got hooked last year in NBA fixing the game.
 
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Posted: #10
Best of Luck
 
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It was the reason you took SD against the slumping Brewers the other night.  A slumping and "ahem" - choking team as you have pointed out - that has scored 1 run, 4 runs, 4 runs at home AND is 1-7 the last 8 games at home versus CINC - a team with a starting pitcher that has pitched very well lately, for a team that has won 4 of their last 5.
 
I also stated that the only pitcher on Milwaukee I wouldn't bet against is Sabathia. Granted its an excellent time to be betting against Milwaukee and if you do today remember that Yost will have Sabathia pitch a full game, whether its 9 innings or more. The Brewers need to put a stop to this losing streak and if they lose today they'll be in big trouble because they could drop their next 3 very easily because of weak starters. If I was winning this week, which I'm not, I would bet against Milwaukee for a small amount and hope Arroyo could keep it a tie game (or be winning) into the 8th or 9th inning. Lastly, I knew in Sabathia's last start that Gagne and Torres would be the bullpen pitchers used and I bet on this too. Because last night's game went into extras both teams used 7 bullpen pitchers and today you just can't predict who will be used. Because of this fact Sabathia will be on a 150 pitch count. I couldn't bet against CC here but I couldn't bet on the Milwaukee offense either. Thats why I passed.
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by Europa:

Chilito, I watched LAD/SD game last night. SD was robbed by the sh*tty call from the umpire. Replay clearly showed A. Gonzalez was safe at home plate off Headly's double to the right of outfield in bottom of the third inning. That f*cking ump consistently call in fav of LAD. That same ump cost me other unit last time I bet on LAA as well.
 
Sometime, you have to wonder what the heck we throw our money on sport wagers when the outcome of the game was heavily controlled by those dammm refs or umps. And one of them just got hooked last year in NBA fixing the game.

I hear ya. One thing is definately for sure - I do not want a 2-0 lead at all today because it seems the teams that jump out to that lead fall asleep and eventually lose.

There were lots of questionable calls/plays in last night's game. Thats the main reason I cut back considerably on my bet amounts. I don't understand either why instant replay is used only to tell if a homerun is a homerun. Why don't they use it for a controversial or questionable run or out at homeplate? It makes no sense. 

 
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Posted: #13
GL chilito
 
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Posted: #14
Line ups out:


No Suzuki, no Ellis, no Guillen, no Ordonez, no Renteria, no Polanco.
 
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Posted: #15
BOL Today ....
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by chilitokid:

I hear ya. One thing is definately for sure - I do not want a 2-0 lead at all today because it seems the teams that jump out to that lead fall asleep and eventually lose.

There were lots of questionable calls/plays in last night's game. Thats the main reason I cut back considerably on my bet amounts. I don't understand either why instant replay is used only to tell if a homerun is a homerun. Why don't they use it for a controversial or questionable run or out at homeplate? It makes no sense. 

I agreed that instant replay should apply to homeplate dispute. Don't give the refs or umps too much power to determind outcome of a game. They are not very trustworthy, one of them even got caught fixing games in NBA!  And we threw money betting in those games, I don't think we are very smart.   

 
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Posted: #17
I fade Milwaukee in weekday afternoon games.
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by BigWaveDave:

Line ups out:


No Suzuki, no Ellis, no Guillen, no Ordonez, no Renteria, no Polanco.
Unfortunately my bets are already in. The players out today were a combined 3-16 last night so I hope their backups are hungry for playing time and get some hits. Cabrera and Sheffield are still playing and maybe one of them hits a homer or two 
 
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Quote Originally Posted by chilitokid:

Unfortunately my bets are already in. The players out today were a combined 3-16 last night so I hope their backups are hungry for playing time and get some hits. Cabrera and Sheffield are still playing and maybe one of them hits a homer or two 


.............with 2 base runners on each time.................we want that over too!!!! 
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by chilitokid:

Washington +215 (Perez/Pelfrey) 200/415
They showed some resiliency last night when they fell behind 5-2 and immediately bounced back to score 5 runs. I know they didn't hold on and lost but what is important is they didn't fold. All I ask when I take a dog is the underdog play tough and be in a position to win. If they lose 5-4 or in some type of one run game I can accept it. As bettors we can't win all the time. Odalis Perez is one of those pitchers that has the potential to thow a solid game. Bettors shit on pitchers like him, Wolf, Fossum etc, etc,etc but these type pitchers are moneymakers. They are usually hugh dogs but they have the experience and knowledge to get batters out.
 

 

Yes, they did.  They folded after the back-to-back homers by Beltran and Delgado.  It was a game that saw the Nats rally back time after time, but after Charlie Manning blew their second lead of the game, they did nothing offensively after that, probably because in the backs of their minds they couldn't help but think "What's the use?  We can't stop these guys anyway."

 
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Quote Originally Posted by chilitokid:

Washington +215 (Perez/Pelfrey) 200/415
They showed some resiliency last night when they fell behind 5-2 and immediately bounced back to score 5 runs. I know they didn't hold on and lost but what is important is they didn't fold. All I ask when I take a dog is the underdog play tough and be in a position to win. If they lose 5-4 or in some type of one run game I can accept it. As bettors we can't win all the time. Odalis Perez is one of those pitchers that has the potential to thow a solid game. Bettors shit on pitchers like him, Wolf, Fossum etc, etc,etc but these type pitchers are moneymakers. They are usually hugh dogs but they have the experience and knowledge to get batters out.
 

 

You should also ask that your underdog not be coming off the type of bruising loss the day before that may very well carry into today.  It's going to be hard for the Nationals to play with their heads up today, IMO.

 
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Quote Originally Posted by chilitokid:

Washington +215 (Perez/Pelfrey) 200/415
They showed some resiliency last night when they fell behind 5-2 and immediately bounced back to score 5 runs. I know they didn't hold on and lost but what is important is they didn't fold. All I ask when I take a dog is the underdog play tough and be in a position to win. If they lose 5-4 or in some type of one run game I can accept it. As bettors we can't win all the time. Odalis Perez is one of those pitchers that has the potential to thow a solid game. Bettors shit on pitchers like him, Wolf, Fossum etc, etc,etc but these type pitchers are moneymakers. They are usually hugh dogs but they have the experience and knowledge to get batters out.
 

 

What does that mean?  You could make the same general statement about all but the most notorious gas cans.

 
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Quote Originally Posted by chilitokid:

 
Washington +215 (Perez/Pelfrey) 200/415
They showed some resiliency last night when they fell behind 5-2 and immediately bounced back to score 5 runs. I know they didn't hold on and lost but what is important is they didn't fold. All I ask when I take a dog is the underdog play tough and be in a position to win. If they lose 5-4 or in some type of one run game I can accept it. As bettors we can't win all the time. Odalis Perez is one of those pitchers that has the potential to thow a solid game. Bettors shit on pitchers like him, Wolf, Fossum etc, etc,etc but these type pitchers are moneymakers. They are usually hugh dogs but they have the experience and knowledge to get batters out.
 

 

Pitching at Nationals Park, Perez certainly is, but on the road he's far less reliable.  Three of his last four road starts have been very ugly.

 
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Dang Bator....on a rampage..
 
 
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What are your plays, Bator?
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