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Author: [NHL Betting] Topic: I'll give you the holy grail of gambling 1.1 (But......)
Lippsman
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Lippsman
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#1
Posted: 8/10/2007 9:12:57 PM

But 99% of you will not be able to follow it.

 

No offense to anyone, but it takes patience and more patience. You can't get into the thrill of making big bucks on every play.  I can honestly say that since I've used internet accounts, I've never tapped out.  I've taken money out at the end of the season.  But that was me just getting the cash. Not tapping out.

We had this discussion last year.  Very good info.  I will actually have people argue that this is not the way to go.  Well, I have math on my side.  Also I have the proof of not putting any money in my internet accounts by tapping since 1996.

First of all.  Lay off the parlays.  UNLESS........You are parlaying two big favs.  That will make them into an even wager or a dog. I see so many people trying to score the huge hit by parlaying 4 or more teams. 

Second.  Just because it's a big fav, doesn't mean they are going to win. There are plenty of upsets in hockey. 

Third. It kind of goes with the first two.  Stay away from the juice. It will just kill ya.  You will notice I will play -1 lines quite a bit.  This gets the big juice plays down to low or no juice.  Also it turns big favs to nice dogs.  You can turn that -150 into a +137.  That's a huge difference.  Yes, you will get some ties.  But that's part of the game.

Fourth......Don't chase.........just don't do it.  Now I have some friends on other boards.  Well, mainly one board that does this.  Sometime down the road you are going to get hit.  It may be awhile.  But one day you will tap out.

Fifth.......Here is really the whole ball of wax here.  This is the grail of it all.

Have your bankroll set.  I mean your whole bankroll.  Just wager a percentage of your bankroll for each game.  Here is what I do.

I wager 2.5% of my bankroll on each game.  I've actually lowered this again this year.  It was 4%, before the lockout.  Then, last year it was 3%. 

 Class...........pay attention.........

Say you start out with......OK.........I will use some real world numbers that most of you probably are using.  You start out with $1000.  Then you decide to take the Bruins and Canes at Even money.

You would wager $25 on both teams.  Say you won both.

Then your bankroll is now $1050.  Now your 2.5% wager would be $26.25 instead of $25. You win your wagers go up.  That's where the snowball starts.  Yeah, you're not going to break the bank at first.  But if you keep winning your wagers will go up.  That's when you should wager more.  But that 99% of people will wager more when they lose.  Exactly backwards.

Now how about if those two $25 wagers lose.  Well your bankroll is down to $950.  So your next wager would be $23.75.  Now this is where the real power of this comes in.  When you are losing, you dig your heels in and make it tough for the book to tap you out. You start to lose you cut your wagers down.  Again, exactly opposite what most people do.

One of the complaints of this is most people say when I get on a winning streak I'm making less money because I'm down a few hundred.  I should be winning $25 or $30 a game instead of $20 or so. 

Well, if you start winning your wagers will start to creep up.  I will bump my percentage up if I'm on a winning streak.  Hell, after the Olympic break a couple of years ago, I I was up to 6% on my wagers in March and the first week of April

If you hit that streak push it a bit.  But make sure your on a streak, not just winning a few games.  If you play like this you will never go broke.  If it's the action your looking for please stop now.  You will be telling a sad story to people.  That's the reason 99% of people can't do this.  It's the action they need.  They don't wager logically.

I know a handful of people in my network that do this.  They are very astute.  They don't play everyday.  The don't force a play.  But they do wager by a percentage of their actual bankroll.

Come on and join this handful. You won't be sorry.

Good skill to everyone this year.  I will be watching.
 
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TRoe15
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#2
Posted: 8/11/2007 9:19:27 AM

You would wager $25 on both teams.  Say you won both.

Then your bankroll is now $1050.  Now your 2.5% wager would be $26.25 instead of $25. You win your wagers go up.  That's where the snowball starts.  Yeah, you're not going to break the bank at first.  But if you keep winning your wagers will go up.  That's when you should wager more.  But that 99% of people will wager more when they lose.  Exactly backwards.

Now how about if those two $25 wagers lose.  Well your bankroll is down to $950.  So your next wager would be $23.75.  Now this is where the real power of this comes in.  When you are losing, you dig your heels in and make it tough for the book to tap you out. You start to lose you cut your wagers down.  Again, exactly opposite what most people do.


That is the hardest part of gambling.  It's all about discipline.

Great writeup, Lippsman.  It was a good read and very insightful.

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#3
Posted: 8/11/2007 11:36:23 AM
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#4
Posted: 8/11/2007 3:50:25 PM
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#5
Posted: 8/11/2007 6:58:04 PM
Is it hockey season yet? 
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#6
Posted: 8/11/2007 9:44:03 PM
nice writeup bro 
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#7
Posted: 8/12/2007 2:31:21 PM
Bet the whole 1000 on a six team teaser.
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#8
Posted: 8/12/2007 6:10:16 PM
I WANT MY NHL !!!!!!!!  
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BostonKen
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#9
Posted: 8/12/2007 10:36:09 PM
Well "said."
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#10
Posted: 8/13/2007 3:12:05 AM
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#11
Posted: 8/15/2007 6:35:15 AM
LOL DruDowns........
 
Excellent money management system Lippsman... It is conservative and a good one.... For we real sicko's, just up the percentage a little after a winner....
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#12
Posted: 8/18/2007 7:31:29 PM
you know what though ..the stay away from the juice is probably right  but when you look up in december and the blues are 6-30 and you couldve made a killing laying the juice vs them every night it gets annoying
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#13
Posted: 8/18/2007 7:33:02 PM
im sorry did i say 6-30 
i meant
6-13-7-10
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Lippsman
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#14
Posted: 8/19/2007 3:37:44 AM
NJDevils,if you remember correctly the Kings and Blues single handed killed my early season dog strategy, last year.
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#15
Posted: 8/24/2007 3:21:14 PM
This sounds excellent!
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#16
Posted: 8/28/2007 9:26:37 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Lippsman:

Fourth......Don't chase.........just don't do it.  Now I have some friends on other boards.  Well, mainly one board that does this.  Sometime down the road you are going to get hit.  It may be awhile.  But one day you will tap out.

 

I can personally attest to this while both times I have down I have not "tapped out" it was as equally as bad of an expierence

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#17
Posted: 8/28/2007 10:44:48 PM
 
 
         This should be posted in all forums, good stuff.
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#18
Posted: 8/28/2007 10:50:58 PM
It looks so easy, now I wonder if I show this to my bank manager maybe he can lend me $10K to start a new bankroll...
 
You are right lippsman, 99% of us will not be able to follow this. 
 
 
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#19
Posted: 8/29/2007 12:09:58 PM
Lippsman - great info.  thank you.  I try to stay to this plan with baseball.  I'm really looking forward to my first hockey season at covers.  Hockey's always been my true love, can't wait to get going.  Lets go Caps!!!!!!
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Lippsman
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#20
Posted: 9/28/2007 8:20:27 PM

Good skill this season.

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#21
Posted: 9/28/2007 10:34:42 PM
Last year you posted this same idea in a little different format.  I found it after I had just lost most of my bankroll because I was chasing.  I decided that I would use your system and let me just say, thank you.  I tailed you and Frozen Tundra through most of the NHL, especially playoffs and did well. 
 
So thanks for posting this and hopefully it will reach others this year.
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#22
Posted: 9/28/2007 11:07:06 PM
and there it is.
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#23
Posted: 9/29/2007 10:12:38 AM
bumb
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#24
Posted: 10/1/2007 7:57:20 PM
Thanks lipps for your advice and capping skills and we appreciate all your time it took to type this!!! It should be mandatory reading for a covers newbie just as having to read their "manifesto" of rules before joining. I remember reading this last year and again for mlb last april,and you are right on the money.I am making a profit in all sports,but a lack of discipline(mainly chasing and getting greedy on late games after i have won earlier in the day) has kept me from making a living at it.Everything you say is true and backed up by the sharps,bookies,and the gambling gods,but staying true to your "mission statement" is hard to do.I can hit the gym 6 days a week as easy as brushing my teeth in the morning,but playing too many games,paying myself back  too much every week,or having to reload is hard NOT to do.GL to you and this thread is gold .
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Lippsman
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#25
Posted: 10/2/2007 12:41:55 AM
Thanks collectnow,
 
Glad you liked it,  I'm sure you can stick to it.  I have no doubt.
 
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