Messages

Forum Index : NHL Betting : Messages Page 1 of 2  1 2  
Author: [NHL Betting] Topic: Chances of a Pens v. Hawks Stanley Cup Final
HeadOverHeart
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
HeadOverHeart
Participation Meter
Hall of Fame
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 20206
Location: Michigan
#1
Posted: 4/29/2013 4:48:56 PM
What do you guys think the odds that this happens is?

No one doubts that these are the two best teams in each conference right now, but the Playoffs are a beast, and things can turn around quickly.

I also think that this being a shortened season, it really brings out the truth on how solid these two are. Each year we seem to get a flaky 1 Seed who gets upset or goes to Game 7. I think this season, the two 1 Seeds are dominant.

So, what is your chance percentage they both make it?  Not looking for value plays or mini long shots. Just asking for your honest opinion on this occurring.  50%?  30%?  80%?

Thanks and good luck!
quote
Polar_Bear
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Polar_Bear
Participation Meter
Hall of Fame
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 24292
Location: Ontario
#2
Posted: 4/29/2013 5:00:22 PM
The thing is, so much is up to just two guys. Fleury who has to reprove himself at this time of year and Crawford who has never been into the deep water. Other than those two large question marks both lineups are insanely skilled and deep. And i'm not at all saying those two won't play well, just saying there is a bit of question mark there with both those teams and unfortunately they play the most important position on the ice.
quote
HeadOverHeart
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
HeadOverHeart
Participation Meter
Hall of Fame
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 20206
Location: Michigan
#3
Posted: 4/29/2013 5:02:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Polar_Bear:

The thing is, so much is up to just two guys. Fleury who has to reprove himself at this time of year and Crawford who has never been into the deep water. Other than those two large question marks both lineups are insanely skilled and deep. And i'm not at all saying those two won't play well, just saying there is a bit of question mark there with both those teams and unfortunately they play the most important position on the ice.

So what's your percentage guess, Polar Bear? Be honest.
quote
Flutiemaniac341 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
Flutiemaniac341
Participation Meter
Hall of Fame
Joined: Oct 2002
Posts: 21077
Location: British
              Columbia
#4
Posted: 4/29/2013 5:04:56 PM
Corey will be fine. He's won at every level. He had a bad series vs the Coyotes. He carried a bad hawks team vs the Nucks in 2011. Seabrook and Keith were not themselves in that hangover cup year. And I still hate Chris Campoli! Ugh, what could have been! They win that game and Corey Crawford is never questioned ever again and he's a Vezina candidate this year!
quote
Polar_Bear
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Polar_Bear
Participation Meter
Hall of Fame
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 24292
Location: Ontario
#5
Posted: 4/29/2013 5:05:20 PM
50%
quote
Flutiemaniac341 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
Flutiemaniac341
Participation Meter
Hall of Fame
Joined: Oct 2002
Posts: 21077
Location: British
              Columbia
#6
Posted: 4/29/2013 5:07:44 PM
The Hawks will live and die with Jonathan Toews. That's my MVP this year! The Hawks are nothing close to that elite level without him. More important to his team than Crosby or Ovechkin and its not even close!
No, peanut gallery, I'm not saying he's better just more important in the scheme of things!

quote
Polar_Bear
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Polar_Bear
Participation Meter
Hall of Fame
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 24292
Location: Ontario
#7
Posted: 4/29/2013 5:10:18 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Flutiemaniac341:

Corey will be fine. He's won at every level. He had a bad series vs the Coyotes. He carried a bad hawks team vs the Nucks in 2011. Seabrook and Keith were not themselves in that hangover cup year. And I still hate Chris Campoli! Ugh, what could have been! They win that game and Corey Crawford is never questioned ever again and he's a Vezina candidate this year!
Yes I like him and don't doubt him one bit, and I drafted him high on my fantasy hockey team this year, but until he has won deep at this level then there is still a question mark that needs erasing. Doesn't mean I wouldn't bet on him doing it. The other thing there is if he gets hurt they are screwed because it looks like Emery is done. He was unsuccessful in his attempt to return from his recent injury which I am betting is related to his past surgeries, hip etc. So he must stay healthy and must stay hot as just like the Blues last season they now have no other option. 
quote
Flutiemaniac341 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
Flutiemaniac341
Participation Meter
Hall of Fame
Joined: Oct 2002
Posts: 21077
Location: British
              Columbia
#8
Posted: 4/29/2013 5:10:32 PM
If Toews isn't the captain at the Olympics for Canada, I would be shocked! Ultimate leader and he was their best player in the 2010 Vancouver Olympics! I don't think anyone can argue that fact.
quote
Flutiemaniac341 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
Flutiemaniac341
Participation Meter
Hall of Fame
Joined: Oct 2002
Posts: 21077
Location: British
              Columbia
#9
Posted: 4/29/2013 5:13:40 PM
That's exactly why I'm not sold on Pittsburgh, polar. I think by far they have the most talent in the nhl. They have lost their last 3 series in the playoffs and they have enormous pressure to win this year! Reminds of the Colorado Avalanche teams of late 90's and early 2000's. best team that should have been a dynasty but always battling injuries!
quote
Polar_Bear
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Polar_Bear
Participation Meter
Hall of Fame
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 24292
Location: Ontario
#10
Posted: 4/29/2013 5:16:23 PM

I will be the peanut gallery. If I had Johnathan Toews on my hockey team there is not a player in the world I would trade him for and I mean that. Crosby is obviously right there but in the entire picture including leadership etc. give me Toews and that's just my opinion. Ofcourse Crosby's head injury plays a role in that. 

At the last Olympics the Team Canada brass were all in agreement that he was the best and most consistent player during that tournament. That line with him and Mike Richards on it owned that tournament. 

quote
WeMoveLines send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Sports Interaction |
WeMoveLines
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 3059
Location: British
              Columbia
#11
Posted: 4/29/2013 5:16:42 PM

I think 15% maybe less.. Ya they are the best teams but its a whole new season now and you've got 16 teams who really want it. You can't undermine every other team it's whoever gets hot at the right time.. Why can't LA be there? Or SJ or Van? They can all beat Chicago heads up. And in the east I think Boston or Montreal can put up a fight against Pitts and why not NYR for that matter.. They have been underachieving all year.. Maybe they can get hot. And when I see everyone think that its CHI vs PIT in the cup final it just makes me believe more that it's not going to happen. It's way too easy to predict that. I do agree that both teams are the best in the league this year but this is hockey right. Things don't always go as planned.

quote
HeadOverHeart
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
HeadOverHeart
Participation Meter
Hall of Fame
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 20206
Location: Michigan
#12
Posted: 4/29/2013 5:25:13 PM
Keep the thoughts coming guys.  Good stuff.  
quote
Flutiemaniac341 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
Flutiemaniac341
Participation Meter
Hall of Fame
Joined: Oct 2002
Posts: 21077
Location: British
              Columbia
#13
Posted: 4/29/2013 5:29:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Polar_Bear:

I will be the peanut gallery. If I had Johnathan Toews on my hockey team there is not a player in the world I would trade him for and I mean that. Crosby is obviously right there but in the entire picture including leadership etc. give me Toews and that's just my opinion. Ofcourse Crosby's head injury plays a role in that. 

At the last Olympics the Team Canada brass were all in agreement that he was the best and most consistent player during that tournament. That line with him and Mike Richards on it owned that tournament. 


Completely agree. You have to take a step back to see the whole picture. Ovechkin just doesnt care sometimes and Crosby's style of play doesn't suit his growing injury concerns! Both are glimpses of greatness. Toews defines it every year!
quote
Polar_Bear
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Polar_Bear
Participation Meter
Hall of Fame
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 24292
Location: Ontario
#14
Posted: 4/29/2013 5:30:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:

Keep the thoughts coming guys.  Good stuff.  
I should add this disclaimer. I never play futures wagers but before the season began I threw a hundred bucks at the Blues to win the west for fun so that is where my original thoughts lie
quote
WeMoveLines send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Sports Interaction |
WeMoveLines
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 3059
Location: British
              Columbia
#15
Posted: 4/29/2013 5:32:13 PM
It's hard NOT to make a case for each team down the list on 5dimes..(besides the bottom 3 ish - Sens, Wild, Ilses .. Will be a tough road for them).. Honestly this is a really tough playoff to predict.. A lot of question marks on each team good and bad.
quote
Flutiemaniac341 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
Flutiemaniac341
Participation Meter
Hall of Fame
Joined: Oct 2002
Posts: 21077
Location: British
              Columbia
#16
Posted: 4/29/2013 5:42:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:

Keep the thoughts coming guys.  Good stuff.  

Well, polar, is good at being objective this time of year. Being a Flyers fan, you don't get a chance to be bias come playoff time. LoL
quote
Niners13 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
Niners13
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 1696
Location: Ontario
#17
Posted: 4/29/2013 7:24:15 PM
Maybe 5%.

Most of the odds out there were giving +1200 but that has been beaten down now.


quote
potvin send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
potvin
Participation Meter
Hall of Fame
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 23367
Location: United States
#18
Posted: 4/29/2013 7:46:06 PM
I would bet against it!
quote
HeadOverHeart
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
HeadOverHeart
Participation Meter
Hall of Fame
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 20206
Location: Michigan
#19
Posted: 4/29/2013 8:13:07 PM
Pens are probably the best team in hockey right now, injuries or not.

Hawks have lost only seven times all season in regulation.

Who is going to beat either one of these two FOUR TIMES in a week/week-and-a-half.

Sure, it is so easy to say, "Nah, both #1 Seeds won't make it.  When do they?"  So technically, this isn't a square bet at all.  A square bet would be taking one of these two and then throwing a dart at a contender in the other conference.

However, unlike years past, these two #1 Seeds are TRUE #1 Seeds.  They aren't a point or two points ahead of #2 and #3.  They aren't only 10 points ahead of #8.  They didn't lose the season series to half of the other playoff teams in their conference.

That is the usual case every season, 82-game season, with the #1 Seeds in the Playoffs.

Instead, we get two #1 Seeds that are above-and-beyond anything else in their conference.  And a few playoff teams would most-likely would not be here today if the season was 82-games (Isles? Wild? Wings? Leafs?).

To summarize, we haven't seen a pair of #1 Seeds to start the Playoffs like this in memory.  We also haven't seen a bunch of "really do not belong there" teams in the Playoffs make up the numbers in recent memory either.

So, maybe, after all, this #1 vs. #1 in the Stanley Cup Final isn't actually a "square bet," but the sharp one.....



quote
SnakeEyes88 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
SnakeEyes88
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 534
Location: Oregon
#20
Posted: 4/29/2013 9:43:16 PM
I'm in agreement with the 15% number that got thrown out.  I might even say slightly lower based on the math involved.  5Dimes has that final matchup at 5.88 to 1.  That price is going to be low based on the chalk factor, so figure Vegas thinks it actually takes place closer to 15%, as well.  There is just too much parity in the NHL to expect top seeds to walk through three rounds.  You have to factor injuries, hot goalies, puck luck and the zebras.  NHL playoffs is as much about luck/good breaks as it about team skill.  Tell me if Crawford got hurt or Malkin got re-concussed, you'd expect either of them to be huge favs to get to the finals anymore.  These teams are one injury away from a level playing field with a hot team/goalie.  Flip a coin 3 times and tell me how often you get 3 heads.  Thats what you are talking about with two teams needing to win three rounds.  I expect each of them to get through the first round 80% of the time....but you can't assume their condition going into round two or who their opponent will be.  That's the problem will predicting multiple rounds, you have no idea what you are capping 3 weeks from now.  Even if they were playing another 8 seed in the next two round and you expected them to roll 80% of the time again.  They still only make the final 60% of the time each.  Multiply together and you get 37%.  That is if each of them play 8 seeds (or worse) three rounds in a row.  Your 50% number is mathematically impossible until you get to each of them having a 90% chance of winning in each round.  That is a statistical impossibility in the NHL.  Figure them at 80% each for the first round, 70% second round and 65% in the third round.   These numbers maybe high but for the sake of crunching, figure they each have a 36% chance of making the finals.  Multiply together and you are looking at 13%.  You'd need to get about 8 to 1 to make that profitable.  

  Personally, I expect the Hawks to roll but would not be surprised at all to see the Pens fall.  They have a great team of individuals who have not had time to gel as a unit.  Their defense can be exploited and their goalie showed us last season  just how bad he can be.  A team like the Bruins, Caps or Rangers have the (goalie and the) ability to lock down an offense and enough firepower to punish a shaky goalie.  The odds on the Pens to win the East right now are ridiculous.  
quote
HeadOverHeart
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
HeadOverHeart
Participation Meter
Hall of Fame
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 20206
Location: Michigan
#21
Posted: 4/29/2013 10:58:18 PM
Good analysis SnakeEyes!  
quote
Flutiemaniac341 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
Flutiemaniac341
Participation Meter
Hall of Fame
Joined: Oct 2002
Posts: 21077
Location: British
              Columbia
#22
Posted: 4/30/2013 1:02:23 AM
Brooks Orpik is probably out with an injury these first two games in Pittsburgh. It's already starting! Not a big name but much like Alexi Emelin in Montreal, you need these type of hard nose players in ur lineup! You can't have 6 Kris Letangs out there on defense!
quote
Polar_Bear
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Polar_Bear
Participation Meter
Hall of Fame
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 24292
Location: Ontario
#23
Posted: 4/30/2013 1:08:09 AM

Dave Bolland being out for the Hawks is bigger than anyone realizes. They can probably skate by Minny without him but down the road they need him playing and healthy.

So many things can go wrong with either of these teams. It literally is a new season so there really is no % you can put on it. It's just pure guessing.

quote
Polar_Bear
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Polar_Bear
Participation Meter
Hall of Fame
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 24292
Location: Ontario
#24
Posted: 4/30/2013 1:08:50 AM
If Crawford gets hurt for the Hawks they are done, they have no backup now.
quote
HeadOverHeart
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
HeadOverHeart
Participation Meter
Hall of Fame
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 20206
Location: Michigan
#25
Posted: 4/30/2013 1:59:04 AM
Considering I'm backing the Hawks and Pens, I fully expect at least 3 big names from both teams to go out for the season in the first round.  I am a living, walking curse.

Lock it up.

quote
Forum Index : NHL Betting : Messages Page 1 of 2  1 2  
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.