What do you guys think the odds that this happens is?
No one doubts that these are the two best teams in each conference right now, but the Playoffs are a beast, and things can turn around quickly.
I also think that this being a shortened season, it really brings out the truth on how solid these two are. Each year we seem to get a flaky 1 Seed who gets upset or goes to Game 7. I think this season, the two 1 Seeds are dominant.
So, what is your chance percentage they both make it? Not looking for value plays or mini long shots. Just asking for your honest opinion on this occurring. 50%? 30%? 80%?
Thanks and good luck!
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
What do you guys think the odds that this happens is?
No one doubts that these are the two best teams in each conference right now, but the Playoffs are a beast, and things can turn around quickly.
I also think that this being a shortened season, it really brings out the truth on how solid these two are. Each year we seem to get a flaky 1 Seed who gets upset or goes to Game 7. I think this season, the two 1 Seeds are dominant.
So, what is your chance percentage they both make it? Not looking for value plays or mini long shots. Just asking for your honest opinion on this occurring. 50%? 30%? 80%?
The thing is, so much is up to just two guys. Fleury who has to reprove himself at this time of year and Crawford who has never been into the deep water. Other than those two large question marks both lineups are insanely skilled and deep. And i'm not at all saying those two won't play well, just saying there is a bit of question mark there with both those teams and unfortunately they play the most important position on the ice.
So what's your percentage guess, Polar Bear? Be honest.
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Quote Originally Posted by Polar_Bear:
The thing is, so much is up to just two guys. Fleury who has to reprove himself at this time of year and Crawford who has never been into the deep water. Other than those two large question marks both lineups are insanely skilled and deep. And i'm not at all saying those two won't play well, just saying there is a bit of question mark there with both those teams and unfortunately they play the most important position on the ice.
So what's your percentage guess, Polar Bear? Be honest.
I think 15% maybe less.. Ya they are the best teams but its a whole new season now and you've got 16 teams who really want it. You can't undermine every other team it's whoever gets hot at the right time.. Why can't LA be there? Or SJ or Van? They can all beat Chicago heads up. And in the east I think Boston or Montreal can put up a fight against Pitts and why not NYR for that matter.. They have been underachieving all year.. Maybe they can get hot. And when I see everyone think that its CHI vs PIT in the cup final it just makes me believe more that it's not going to happen. It's way too easy to predict that. I do agree that both teams are the best in the league this year but this is hockey right. Things don't always go as planned.
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I think 15% maybe less.. Ya they are the best teams but its a whole new season now and you've got 16 teams who really want it. You can't undermine every other team it's whoever gets hot at the right time.. Why can't LA be there? Or SJ or Van? They can all beat Chicago heads up. And in the east I think Boston or Montreal can put up a fight against Pitts and why not NYR for that matter.. They have been underachieving all year.. Maybe they can get hot. And when I see everyone think that its CHI vs PIT in the cup final it just makes me believe more that it's not going to happen. It's way too easy to predict that. I do agree that both teams are the best in the league this year but this is hockey right. Things don't always go as planned.
It's hard NOT to make a case for each team down the list on 5dimes..(besides the bottom 3 ish - Sens, Wild, Ilses .. Will be a tough road for them).. Honestly this is a really tough playoff to predict.. A lot of question marks on each team good and bad.
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It's hard NOT to make a case for each team down the list on 5dimes..(besides the bottom 3 ish - Sens, Wild, Ilses .. Will be a tough road for them).. Honestly this is a really tough playoff to predict.. A lot of question marks on each team good and bad.
Pens are probably the best team in hockey right now, injuries or not.
Hawks have lost only seven times all season in regulation.
Who is going to beat either one of these two FOUR TIMES in a week/week-and-a-half.
Sure, it is so easy to say, "Nah, both #1 Seeds won't make it. When do they?" So technically, this isn't a square bet at all. A square bet would be taking one of these two and then throwing a dart at a contender in the other conference.
However, unlike years past, these two #1 Seeds are TRUE #1 Seeds. They aren't a point or two points ahead of #2 and #3. They aren't only 10 points ahead of #8. They didn't lose the season series to half of the other playoff teams in their conference.
That is the usual case every season, 82-game season, with the #1 Seeds in the Playoffs.
Instead, we get two #1 Seeds that are above-and-beyond anything else in their conference. And a few playoff teams would most-likely would not be here today if the season was 82-games (Isles? Wild? Wings? Leafs?).
To summarize, we haven't seen a pair of #1 Seeds to start the Playoffs like this in memory. We also haven't seen a bunch of "really do not belong there" teams in the Playoffs make up the numbers in recent memory either.
So, maybe, after all, this #1 vs. #1 in the Stanley Cup Final isn't actually a "square bet," but the sharp one.....
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Pens are probably the best team in hockey right now, injuries or not.
Hawks have lost only seven times all season in regulation.
Who is going to beat either one of these two FOUR TIMES in a week/week-and-a-half.
Sure, it is so easy to say, "Nah, both #1 Seeds won't make it. When do they?" So technically, this isn't a square bet at all. A square bet would be taking one of these two and then throwing a dart at a contender in the other conference.
However, unlike years past, these two #1 Seeds are TRUE #1 Seeds. They aren't a point or two points ahead of #2 and #3. They aren't only 10 points ahead of #8. They didn't lose the season series to half of the other playoff teams in their conference.
That is the usual case every season, 82-game season, with the #1 Seeds in the Playoffs.
Instead, we get two #1 Seeds that are above-and-beyond anything else in their conference. And a few playoff teams would most-likely would not be here today if the season was 82-games (Isles? Wild? Wings? Leafs?).
To summarize, we haven't seen a pair of #1 Seeds to start the Playoffs like this in memory. We also haven't seen a bunch of "really do not belong there" teams in the Playoffs make up the numbers in recent memory either.
So, maybe, after all, this #1 vs. #1 in the Stanley Cup Final isn't actually a "square bet," but the sharp one.....
I'm in agreement with the 15% number that got thrown out. I might even say slightly lower based on the math involved. 5Dimes has that final matchup at 5.88 to 1. That price is going to be low based on the chalk factor, so figure Vegas thinks it actually takes place closer to 15%, as well. There is just too much parity in the NHL to expect top seeds to walk through three rounds. You have to factor injuries, hot goalies, puck luck and the zebras. NHL playoffs is as much about luck/good breaks as it about team skill. Tell me if Crawford got hurt or Malkin got re-concussed, you'd expect either of them to be huge favs to get to the finals anymore. These teams are one injury away from a level playing field with a hot team/goalie. Flip a coin 3 times and tell me how often you get 3 heads. Thats what you are talking about with two teams needing to win three rounds. I expect each of them to get through the first round 80% of the time....but you can't assume their condition going into round two or who their opponent will be. That's the problem will predicting multiple rounds, you have no idea what you are capping 3 weeks from now. Even if they were playing another 8 seed in the next two round and you expected them to roll 80% of the time again. They still only make the final 60% of the time each. Multiply together and you get 37%. That is if each of them play 8 seeds (or worse) three rounds in a row. Your 50% number is mathematically impossible until you get to each of them having a 90% chance of winning in each round. That is a statistical impossibility in the NHL. Figure them at 80% each for the first round, 70% second round and 65% in the third round. These numbers maybe high but for the sake of crunching, figure they each have a 36% chance of making the finals. Multiply together and you are looking at 13%. You'd need to get about 8 to 1 to make that profitable.
Personally, I expect the Hawks to roll but would not be surprised at all to see the Pens fall. They have a great team of individuals who have not had time to gel as a unit. Their defense can be exploited and their goalie showed us last season just how bad he can be. A team like the Bruins, Caps or Rangers have the (goalie and the) ability to lock down an offense and enough firepower to punish a shaky goalie. The odds on the Pens to win the East right now are ridiculous.
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I'm in agreement with the 15% number that got thrown out. I might even say slightly lower based on the math involved. 5Dimes has that final matchup at 5.88 to 1. That price is going to be low based on the chalk factor, so figure Vegas thinks it actually takes place closer to 15%, as well. There is just too much parity in the NHL to expect top seeds to walk through three rounds. You have to factor injuries, hot goalies, puck luck and the zebras. NHL playoffs is as much about luck/good breaks as it about team skill. Tell me if Crawford got hurt or Malkin got re-concussed, you'd expect either of them to be huge favs to get to the finals anymore. These teams are one injury away from a level playing field with a hot team/goalie. Flip a coin 3 times and tell me how often you get 3 heads. Thats what you are talking about with two teams needing to win three rounds. I expect each of them to get through the first round 80% of the time....but you can't assume their condition going into round two or who their opponent will be. That's the problem will predicting multiple rounds, you have no idea what you are capping 3 weeks from now. Even if they were playing another 8 seed in the next two round and you expected them to roll 80% of the time again. They still only make the final 60% of the time each. Multiply together and you get 37%. That is if each of them play 8 seeds (or worse) three rounds in a row. Your 50% number is mathematically impossible until you get to each of them having a 90% chance of winning in each round. That is a statistical impossibility in the NHL. Figure them at 80% each for the first round, 70% second round and 65% in the third round. These numbers maybe high but for the sake of crunching, figure they each have a 36% chance of making the finals. Multiply together and you are looking at 13%. You'd need to get about 8 to 1 to make that profitable.
Personally, I expect the Hawks to roll but would not be surprised at all to see the Pens fall. They have a great team of individuals who have not had time to gel as a unit. Their defense can be exploited and their goalie showed us last season just how bad he can be. A team like the Bruins, Caps or Rangers have the (goalie and the) ability to lock down an offense and enough firepower to punish a shaky goalie. The odds on the Pens to win the East right now are ridiculous.
Considering I'm backing the Hawks and Pens, I fully expect at least 3 big names from both teams to go out for the season in the first round. I am a living, walking curse.
Lock it up.
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Considering I'm backing the Hawks and Pens, I fully expect at least 3 big names from both teams to go out for the season in the first round. I am a living, walking curse.
Brooks Orpik is probably out with an injury these first two games in Pittsburgh. It's already starting! Not a big name but much like Alexi Emelin in Montreal, you need these type of hard nose players in ur lineup! You can't have 6 Kris Letangs out there on defense!
https://m.quickmeme.com/meme/3onnlq/
Orpik is not pleased.
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Quote Originally Posted by Flutiemaniac341:
Brooks Orpik is probably out with an injury these first two games in Pittsburgh. It's already starting! Not a big name but much like Alexi Emelin in Montreal, you need these type of hard nose players in ur lineup! You can't have 6 Kris Letangs out there on defense!
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