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Author: [NHL Betting] Topic: Kings Cup Hedge?
Cross21 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Cross21
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#1
Posted: 5/15/2012 8:12:06 PM
On 3-21 I bet the kings to win the cup at 33 to 1. On 5dimes I bet 35 to win 1155. Trying to get your guys ideas on if and when I should hedge.
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#2
Posted: 5/15/2012 8:15:33 PM
It's only 35 unless that's a hug deal I wouldn't . Just my opinion 
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#3
Posted: 5/15/2012 8:34:47 PM

I'm in a similar situation (30 -1 Odds / ~$2k if Kings win).  I figured the Kings would win this series but to be safe I put $100 bucks each on the Yotes to win the series in 6 or 7 games at 5-1 / 7-1 odds respectively.  I figured the Kings would win at least 2 games so the series would at least go to game 6.  If the Kings win this series, I will prob hedge in a similar fashion for the finals. 

GL.  .
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Crashdavis565
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#4
Posted: 5/15/2012 8:38:49 PM
I think they take care of the Yotes, Hedge in the Finals
IMHO
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bigbill365 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Bellagio |
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#5
Posted: 5/15/2012 8:41:42 PM
dude let it ride the kings have a great chance at winning it plus its 35 bucks thats chump change
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atlheatholder
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#6
Posted: 5/15/2012 8:46:37 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Crashdavis565:

I think they take care of the Yotes, Hedge in the Finals
IMHO

I agree with Crash.

But even then, LA is playing phenomenal hockey and I'm still not sure I'd even hedge. 

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#7
Posted: 5/15/2012 9:07:26 PM
if you were going to hedge, i wouldnt even think about it unless the kings were in a game where they could knocked out! you have 3 losses to spare!
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#8
Posted: 5/15/2012 10:37:35 PM
I'll make this very simple

DO NOT HEDGE A $35 BET

If we were talking in the hundreds of dollars then I would do it. Something that small at those odds you just ride it out.
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#9
Posted: 5/15/2012 10:42:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by fsutomahawk:

I'll make this very simple

DO NOT HEDGE A $35 BET

If we were talking in the hundreds of dollars then I would do it. Something that small at those odds you just ride it out.


The risk is 100% irrelevant when it comes to these. All that matters is the CURRENT VALUE of the bet. And the current value of his bet before tonight was between $400-$500 if he wanted to sell it.
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#10
Posted: 5/15/2012 10:47:09 PM
yo peep dis bigbills been thinking if the kings make it to the cup which they probally will take $550 and put it on the other team in the cup to win  so now youll make $550 profit any you look at it u win so you would turn that $35 into $500
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#11
Posted: 5/15/2012 10:54:22 PM

you guys who say dont hedge are dumb unless you 150 percent believe la kings will win the cup then dont hedge

but if you not sure, i would hedge when they play rangers or devils in finals, they would be favorite over devils, and rangers vs kings i think the series price would be -120 at most for rangers? so basicaly if you bet 500 on rangers to win series lets say if they play kings in finals. you still making over atleast $400 profit either way. you rather gamble to win 1155, or guarantee money? i rather guarantee money, unless you for sure they beat rangers or devils. they will be phoenix, phoenix might get swept

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#12
Posted: 5/15/2012 10:58:07 PM
After tonight, they will probably in the -130 range to lose the cup as it was -160 before the game.

$650-500 on that and you lock in a roughly $500 profit.

Not telling you whether to hedge or not, but THAT is what your bet is worth. Like a stock, the choice is yours whether to sell it now or hope it goes higher.
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#13
Posted: 5/15/2012 10:59:51 PM
you no wat would suck is if this guy doesnt have an extra $500 laying around to hedge lol
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#14
Posted: 5/15/2012 11:07:37 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by pj702:

you guys who say dont hedge are dumb unless you 150 percent believe la kings will win the cup then dont hedge

but if you not sure, i would hedge when they play rangers or devils in finals, they would be favorite over devils, and rangers vs kings i think the series price would be -120 at most for rangers? so basicaly if you bet 500 on rangers to win series lets say if they play kings in finals. you still making over atleast $400 profit either way. you rather gamble to win 1155, or guarantee money? i rather guarantee money, unless you for sure they beat rangers or devils. they will be phoenix, phoenix might get swept

dumb? why would you hedge with a friggin series play?and the kings win in 5 and who would be dumb, wait till they are down and can be eliminated! why give money back until you need to!

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#15
Posted: 5/15/2012 11:13:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by potvin:

dumb? why would you hedge with a friggin series play?and the kings win in 5 and who would be dumb, wait till they are down and can be eliminated! why give money back until you need to!



Potvin I'm not arguing with your idea of not hedging but this part simply isn't true. You are waiting till you are in bad shape compared to doing it when you are in good shape.
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#16
Posted: 5/15/2012 11:14:10 PM
Point being, at this point it wouldn't cost him much at all to ensure they make it to the final. Facing elimination, it would be a ton.
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#17
Posted: 5/15/2012 11:14:28 PM
cross21 if that extra 500 does not mean a lot to you then no don't do it, but if you really can use that extra 500 then yes sit back and have a drink and not to worry because your going to the bank gl
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#18
Posted: 5/15/2012 11:22:41 PM
perhaps rangerz, but you are looking at a team that is on the verge of being 10 and 1, $35? to cut your winnings down to 500? i have more on the puckline tonight!
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#19
Posted: 5/15/2012 11:25:12 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by dilaudid8:

cross21 if that extra 500 does not mean a lot to you then no don't do it, but if you really can use that extra 500 then yes sit back and have a drink and not to worry because your going to the bank gl

my brother just gave better advice! how you doing hydro?

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#20
Posted: 5/15/2012 11:26:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by potvin:

perhaps rangerz, but you are looking at a team that is on the verge of being 10 and 1, $35? to cut your winnings down to 500? i have more on the puckline tonight!


True but we aren't in the position to say what amount is "big or small." It's all relative to the gambler. $100 to me is a lot different compared to $100 to someone else.  $35 into $500 is still a hell of a profit if he decided to take it.
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#21
Posted: 5/15/2012 11:33:20 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by rangerz2478:



True but we aren't in the position to say what amount is "big or small." It's all relative to the gambler. $100 to me is a lot different compared to $100 to someone else.  $35 into $500 is still a hell of a profit if he decided to take it.

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#22
Posted: 5/15/2012 11:34:28 PM
Don't hedge at all, its all part of gambling, obviously you had a feeling they have a shot at winning it all.  So let it ride for max profit! 
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#23
Posted: 5/15/2012 11:38:48 PM
cross21, this is very true, rangerz 2478 has always impressed me with his money management and hedging abilities, i maybe had a bit to drink because i am having  great night and should think before i answer the way I WOULD DO IT! good luck whichever way you go!
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#24
Posted: 5/15/2012 11:40:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by rangerz2478:



True but we aren't in the position to say what amount is "big or small." It's all relative to the gambler. $100 to me is a lot different compared to $100 to someone else.  $35 into $500 is still a hell of a profit if he decided to take it.




I really didn't stop and think about that factor. If a few hundred to this guy is a lot then by all means hedge and take a profit. I guess to me $35 is nothing in terms of a wager, especially sitting on  huge odds like that.
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#25
Posted: 5/16/2012 10:21:12 AM
potvin hey my brother sorry about not getting back I went to bed after I posted in this thread your doing very good potvin, i'm really happy for you very very nice job my brother nice hit's the last few day's keep on going to the bank
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