Posted:
#1
YTD: 50-32-9 +16.21u
ML: 16-7 +8.73u
PL: 4-5-6 -0.23u
Totals: 13-9-3 +1.44u
TT: 16-11 +4.48u
Parlays: 1-0 +1.81u
---------------------------
2u Plays: 3-1 +3.60u
Toronto (+101) 1u
Toronto -1 (+185) 1u
There are no excuses for Toronto in this situation as this is definitely a must win game, and one that they are more than capable of winning. This was going to be a rare 2 unit play, but I decided to divide the wager between the ML and -1. I like getting +185 on the -1 PL with Toronto's high octane road offense against Edmonton's sloppy defensive play.
Toronto comes into this game having lost their last 4 straight games. Ironically, their last win came against this very same Oilers team 9 days ago. Toronto has played well offensively this year, but their defensive play has cost them far too many games. Toronto comes in with a very good offensive game where they rank #7 overall averaging 2.96 goals per game. On the road, we see a positive improvement in offensive production where they rank #2 overall averaging 3.14 goals per game. Their Power Play has been another positive aspect of this Toronto offense where they rank #10 overall in PP% at 19.1% and #6 having scored 37 PP goals so far this season. On the road, we actually see an increase in production on the Power Play where they rank #7 overall in PK% at 20.6% and #5 having scored 20 PP goals this season. Although Toronto's offense has been great this season, unfortunately we can't say the same about their defensive play. Toronto rank s#6 overall allowing opponents to score an average of 2.95 goals against per game. On the road, we see a decrease in production where they rank #8 allowing opponents to score an average of 3.18 goals against per game. The Penalty Kill has been absolutely brutal where they rank #29 overall in PK% at 76.7% and #3 having allowed opponents to score 42 PP goals against this season. On the road we see another decrease where they rank #29 in PK% at 73.5% and #2 having allowed opponents to score 26 PP goals against this season.
Reimer
Overall: 10-7-4, 2.87 GAA, .906 SV%
Away: 2-5-1, 3.57 GAA, .894 SV%
February: 3-2, 2.37 GAA, .930 SV%
To tell you the honest truth, I don't really have much to say about Reimer in this situation. Plain and simple, he needs to start winning on the road if the Leafs are going to make the playoffs. If the Leafs do make the playoffs and he continues to play poorly on the road, I don't know who will be the starter entering the post season (if they get there, and that's a big if at this point). Reimer knows the pressure is on, and this is his time to shine. I think this is a great spot for Reimer to grab a W on the road as I expect the Oilers to come out slow tonight after coming home after a 3 game road trip going on 3 full days rest, where they have proven to be sloppy.
Edmonton has been a pretty average team all year long. Other than their Power Play, all of their team statistics hover around league averages. Edmonton currently ranks #16 overall having scored an average of 2.62 goals per game. At home, we actually see a positive increase in production where they rank #11 overall scoring an average of 2.92 goals per game. Edmonton’s Power Play has been the most positive aspect of their by far so far where they rank #2 in PP% at 21.6% and #3 having scored 44 PP goals so far this season. At home, we see a huge spike in production where they sit #1 in PP% at 25.2% and #1 having scored 26 PP goals so far this season. Edmonton's defensive stats are fairly average as well, although they have gotten much sloppier lately. Edmonton currently sits #8 allowing opponents to score an average of 2.93 goals against per game. At home, we see a significant increase in production where they sit #16 allowing opponents to score an average of 2.54 goals against per game. Their Penalty Kill isn't anything special as well where they sit #12 overall in PK% at 83.0% and #15 having allowed opponents to score 35 PP goals against so far this season. At home, they remain fairly consistent where they rank #19 in PK% at 82.4% and #7 having allowed opponents to score 18 PP goals against this season.
Khabibulin
Overall: 12-16-4, 2.52 GAA, .917 SV%
Home: 8-6-3, 2.18 GAA, .923 SV%
February: 1-1, 3.55 GAA, .903 SV%
After starting out the season on fire, Khabibulin has come back down to earth and is actually playing pretty horrible as of late. Overall, he has lost 9 of his last 10 games overall. At home, he actually isn't much better having lost 7 of his last 9 home games. His stats are inflatted due to his extremely hot start, and are certainly not reflective of how he has played in his last 15 games or so. He is 39 years old, and he may be running out of steam down the stretch, and it definitely doesn't help that their defense hasn't been playing exactly stellar hockey. Obviously with the loses comes a lot of goals, as opponents have scored 3 or more goals in 12 of his last 16 starts.
A few other things to take into account when betting this games, as I always like to find a couple funky trends (doesn't play a big roll in my decision). Toronto has scored 1 goal or less in 9 games, 6 times they came back to score 3 or more the next game. On Toronto's 2nd consecutive game on the road, they have scored 3 or more 6 of 7 attempts. Edmonton on the other hand is 2-7 at home in their first game back from the road. To go along with all this, Edmonton is on 3 days rest where their record is 1-5.
This is the first play in a while that I really feel confident in, especially getting Toronto at + money. As always, Good luck everyone.
ML: 16-7 +8.73u
PL: 4-5-6 -0.23u
Totals: 13-9-3 +1.44u
TT: 16-11 +4.48u
Parlays: 1-0 +1.81u
---------------------------
2u Plays: 3-1 +3.60u
Toronto (+101) 1u
Toronto -1 (+185) 1u
There are no excuses for Toronto in this situation as this is definitely a must win game, and one that they are more than capable of winning. This was going to be a rare 2 unit play, but I decided to divide the wager between the ML and -1. I like getting +185 on the -1 PL with Toronto's high octane road offense against Edmonton's sloppy defensive play.
Toronto comes into this game having lost their last 4 straight games. Ironically, their last win came against this very same Oilers team 9 days ago. Toronto has played well offensively this year, but their defensive play has cost them far too many games. Toronto comes in with a very good offensive game where they rank #7 overall averaging 2.96 goals per game. On the road, we see a positive improvement in offensive production where they rank #2 overall averaging 3.14 goals per game. Their Power Play has been another positive aspect of this Toronto offense where they rank #10 overall in PP% at 19.1% and #6 having scored 37 PP goals so far this season. On the road, we actually see an increase in production on the Power Play where they rank #7 overall in PK% at 20.6% and #5 having scored 20 PP goals this season. Although Toronto's offense has been great this season, unfortunately we can't say the same about their defensive play. Toronto rank s#6 overall allowing opponents to score an average of 2.95 goals against per game. On the road, we see a decrease in production where they rank #8 allowing opponents to score an average of 3.18 goals against per game. The Penalty Kill has been absolutely brutal where they rank #29 overall in PK% at 76.7% and #3 having allowed opponents to score 42 PP goals against this season. On the road we see another decrease where they rank #29 in PK% at 73.5% and #2 having allowed opponents to score 26 PP goals against this season.
Reimer
Overall: 10-7-4, 2.87 GAA, .906 SV%
Away: 2-5-1, 3.57 GAA, .894 SV%
February: 3-2, 2.37 GAA, .930 SV%
To tell you the honest truth, I don't really have much to say about Reimer in this situation. Plain and simple, he needs to start winning on the road if the Leafs are going to make the playoffs. If the Leafs do make the playoffs and he continues to play poorly on the road, I don't know who will be the starter entering the post season (if they get there, and that's a big if at this point). Reimer knows the pressure is on, and this is his time to shine. I think this is a great spot for Reimer to grab a W on the road as I expect the Oilers to come out slow tonight after coming home after a 3 game road trip going on 3 full days rest, where they have proven to be sloppy.
Edmonton has been a pretty average team all year long. Other than their Power Play, all of their team statistics hover around league averages. Edmonton currently ranks #16 overall having scored an average of 2.62 goals per game. At home, we actually see a positive increase in production where they rank #11 overall scoring an average of 2.92 goals per game. Edmonton’s Power Play has been the most positive aspect of their by far so far where they rank #2 in PP% at 21.6% and #3 having scored 44 PP goals so far this season. At home, we see a huge spike in production where they sit #1 in PP% at 25.2% and #1 having scored 26 PP goals so far this season. Edmonton's defensive stats are fairly average as well, although they have gotten much sloppier lately. Edmonton currently sits #8 allowing opponents to score an average of 2.93 goals against per game. At home, we see a significant increase in production where they sit #16 allowing opponents to score an average of 2.54 goals against per game. Their Penalty Kill isn't anything special as well where they sit #12 overall in PK% at 83.0% and #15 having allowed opponents to score 35 PP goals against so far this season. At home, they remain fairly consistent where they rank #19 in PK% at 82.4% and #7 having allowed opponents to score 18 PP goals against this season.
Khabibulin
Overall: 12-16-4, 2.52 GAA, .917 SV%
Home: 8-6-3, 2.18 GAA, .923 SV%
February: 1-1, 3.55 GAA, .903 SV%
After starting out the season on fire, Khabibulin has come back down to earth and is actually playing pretty horrible as of late. Overall, he has lost 9 of his last 10 games overall. At home, he actually isn't much better having lost 7 of his last 9 home games. His stats are inflatted due to his extremely hot start, and are certainly not reflective of how he has played in his last 15 games or so. He is 39 years old, and he may be running out of steam down the stretch, and it definitely doesn't help that their defense hasn't been playing exactly stellar hockey. Obviously with the loses comes a lot of goals, as opponents have scored 3 or more goals in 12 of his last 16 starts.
A few other things to take into account when betting this games, as I always like to find a couple funky trends (doesn't play a big roll in my decision). Toronto has scored 1 goal or less in 9 games, 6 times they came back to score 3 or more the next game. On Toronto's 2nd consecutive game on the road, they have scored 3 or more 6 of 7 attempts. Edmonton on the other hand is 2-7 at home in their first game back from the road. To go along with all this, Edmonton is on 3 days rest where their record is 1-5.
This is the first play in a while that I really feel confident in, especially getting Toronto at + money. As always, Good luck everyone.
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