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Author: [NHL Betting] Topic: Season Point Totals
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#1
Posted: 9/29/2011 7:45:58 PM
I placed these 10 wagers. I hope to go at least 7-3 and have some extra scratch in my account for the playoffs.
 
 
Boston           UNDER 102.5
Carolina          OVER 83.5
Colorado         OVER 75.5
Detroit           UNDER 104.5
Edmonton        OVER 77.5
Los Angeles   UNDER 102.5
Montreal          OVER 92.5
New Jersey      OVER 90.5
St. Louis           OVER 91.5
Vancouver     UNDER 106.5
 
 
No time for the usual writeup, but if you have want my reasoning behind any of the wagers, I'll try to post some thoughts this weekend.
 
Have a profitable season boys and girls.
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#2
Posted: 9/29/2011 7:57:06 PM
I think I like all of them besides Vancouver.  Do you think the league as a whole has more parity?  I still see them as the crown jewel.  They got 117 last year which makes 106.5 look like a trap, but I don't really see that big of a drop off.  Any insight would be appreciated
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#3
Posted: 9/29/2011 8:39:33 PM

Vancouver's top 9 forwards were remarkably healthy last year with all three studs playing all 82 games (they usually do). I don't see that kind of fortune happening two years in a row for their top 3 lines. Kesler is already on the mend. Even though I see them having a lot more adversity this year (will Raymond play again?), obviously they should still win their division fairly easily because most feel the other 4 teams won't make the playoffs.

Ironically as their roster stands now, I think they are more built for the regular season up front (short & speedy wingers) and will have to add major beef on the wing to have a chance in the spring.

The other strength the Nucks had last year was their great depth on the back end. They had enough players to pick up the slack when Edler, Bieksa, and Salo missed time. Ehrhoff is not perfect by any means, but they'll miss him, especially on the PP because Salo can never stay healthy. They still have good depth on defense, but they do not have anyone that replaces Ehrhoff's skill. The Nucks had the best PP in the league last year, I don't expect a repeat of that performance.

It is a huge drop from 117 to 106 or less, but I generally like to bet under on the previous years Cup finalists, especially if they are teams that usually don't go deep in the playoffs and are not used to the short summer. 117 points means everything went right last year. I expect them to fall back to the 100-105 range they had the previous two years to last. A very good, but not great year.

 

 

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#4
Posted: 9/30/2011 1:16:04 AM
Impressive write-up man. You have convinced me, I'm playing all of them.  Good luck to you and I
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#5
Posted: 9/30/2011 11:31:46 AM
I like the play on Carolina.  Aside from losing Erik Cole, it's not like they took a huge step back, and they did sign Kaberle as well.  I think they'll be right up in the 87-95 point range this year.
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#6
Posted: 9/30/2011 3:18:09 PM
I love the Boston and LA unders. 102 points means going 20 games above 500. I dont see that happening in either case. Likewise, I agree with Carolina. They should reach the 90 point mark.
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#7
Posted: 10/2/2011 11:08:42 AM
My favorite future bet of the year is Phoenix not to make the playoffs at +140
 
Their point total is only 87.5 (could go either way), but they're giving me +140 for them not to make the playoffs??????
 
Right now I have these teams and a couple more ahead of them:
San Jose
Chicago
Vancouver
Detroit
Los Angeles
St. Louis
Anaheim
Nashville
 
The Yotes made the playoffs last year with mirrors. They were only +5 in goal differential and were middle of the road in goals per game and goals against. Their special teams were also lousy, but somehow they hit 99 points and made the playoffs. Bryzgalov is gone and now Mike Smith is now their #1 goalie and he has never played 50 games in a season before. LaBarbera is the backup.
 
Phoenix has as few skilled forwards as any team in the league. Doan was their leading scorer with only 20 goals and 60 points. They did it by committee and got a real nice year from Yandle to go with Brzgalov's typical solid play.
 
I think Phoenix will be closer to a top 5 pick in next years draft than making the playoffs. I absolutely love getting that kind of plus money on this wager.
 
 
 
The other non season point total bet I placed that I really like is St. Louis to make the playoffs at +240
 
Most people forget that when the Blues were healthy last year to start the season they got out of the gate with a 9-1-2 record after beating the B's and the NYR on back to back nights on the road. They were riding high with the best record in the league at that moment.
 
That all came crashing down in the next game when they got blown out by Columbus and lost Oshie to a broken ankle. They also realized that the concussion that David Perron suffered a few games earlier was much worse than originally thought. McDonald was then lost for a long stretch as well. Also many of their defensemen started dropping like flies. Coincidently the play of Halak also went in the shitter and they never recovered. Any team that loses their top 3 skilled wingers simultaneously will struggle.
 
St. Louis now has Chris Stewart as their top winger. Oshie is healthy and in the best shape of his life, while there is now hope that Perron will be coming back sooner than later. I still like this bet even if Perron never comes back. The signing of Arnott and Langenbrunner gave the Blues much needed veteran leadership and also helped with the depth on the 3rd line.
 
Oshie          Berglund     Stewart
McDonald    Backes       D'Agostini
Steen          Arnott         Langenbrunner
 
That is three lines that can score. Berglund and Stewart had instant chemistry. If, and once Perron comes back, the lines will be that much stronger because it will allow Oshie to slide down and play on the 2nd line, while Dago can play on the 3rd line to give Langenbrunner rest.
 
Perron           Berglund       Stewart
McDonald      Backes        Oshie
Steen            Arnott           D'Agostini
 
Having the very underrated Steen as a 3rd line winger shows this team now has good forward depth. Backes is one of the best two way centers in the NHL.
 
Injuries always occur, but the Blues are much more equipped this year to handle some injuries. The only thing I'm really concerned about right now is if Halak plays poorly and/or gets hurt. Elliot is the backup, but if Halak goes down for a long time don't be surprised to see the Blues call up Jake Allen to see how he would handle the role as their #1 goalie.
 
The bottom line is that I see St. Louis making the playoffs this year and I'm getting +240 to see if I'm right!
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#8
Posted: 10/2/2011 7:01:54 PM
fuk ...ur AWESOME
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#9
Posted: 10/2/2011 8:29:37 PM
Nice write-ups and best of luck to you this season!!

I agree w/ your future point totals w/ the exception of the Avs and Devils.  I still think Colorado is just to young but w/ the goalie addition they will at least be in every game.

Devils, just a lot of off-ice stuff going to be going on w/ this team and I think grandpa-Brodeur needs to hang them up as he seems like he's not able to hang w/ this new style of game.

Again, BOL

Nut'
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#10
Posted: 10/2/2011 8:36:52 PM
I really want to take that yotes not to make the playoffs
whered u get the line man??
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#11
Posted: 10/3/2011 12:18:43 AM
Why did you take over for Colorado? Not just because of Varlamov? He has never played more than 25 games in a season and hasn't he gotten injured every year?

I think they will be at the bottom of the West.

Love the Blues bet.
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#12
Posted: 10/3/2011 2:33:59 AM
Guys where do you get props on teams to make/miss the playoffs?
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#13
Posted: 10/3/2011 3:46:01 AM
blues @ +240 to make the playoffs,sign me up now! good luck!
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#14
Posted: 10/3/2011 8:27:20 AM

Here is the link boys.  

http://sports.bodog.eu/sports-betting/nhl-team-props.jsp

The Avs bet was made because I am a sucker for strength down the middle. I really expect Duchene to raise his game another level this year to the point where he will be considered a shade below being an elite player. Stastny is a damn fine 2nd line center. O'Reilly is an ideal 3rd line guy with lots of determination and decent skill. McClement is a very good PK center to round that group out.

I'm not sure what they were doing with the trade with St. Louis for Johnson because it cost them their best winger. They definitely need another winger. It is probably too soon to expect Landeskog to fill that need right away, but he'll be playing with a skilled center and seemingly has the pro style body.

Varlamov is definitely unproven, but he and Giguere are an upgrade over Budaj and Elliott. I think he'll be much more relaxed playing in Denver where there are little expectations compared to the huge expectations in DC last year. 

You can't take away the fact that this team lost 19 out of 20 games at one stretch last year, but I really think that has helped skew the outlook of this team.

In no way do I think the Avs will be a good team, but I hope that the fact that they are playing in a weak division will help them limp to about 78-80 points. If I had to rank the 10 season totals bets that I made in the order that I like them, the Avs wager would probably come in last with the Detroit wager 9th.

I fear Colorado falls behind the eight ball early because they have a long road trip after their first game with Detroit.

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#15
Posted: 10/3/2011 11:14:21 AM
Great Line on the prop man just can't handle bodog and their scamming ways. Have you read they're withdrawal methods? Only bankwire and they charge you $50 bucks for everyone!!! Not to mention on top of that your bank will charge you $25. So everytime u go to withdrawal it costs $75 bucks....absolutely rediculous.
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#16
Posted: 10/3/2011 12:01:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TDD:


If I had to rank the 10 season totals bets that I made in the order that I like them, the Avs wager would probably come in last with the Detroit wager 9th.


What would be your top 3 plays TDD ?

Thanks for the insight.

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#17
Posted: 10/3/2011 7:05:48 PM

GunClapa: I have not been an active member at Bodog since probably around 2006, but kept a few bucks in there to keep it going. I checked out their site recently and saw the NHL futures and reloaded via credit card. It is my understanding that you get one free wire payout per month. If that is not the case, I fucked myself. I guess I won't find out until April because these NHL future wagers are the only ones I plan to make at that site unless they have a particular line in my favor (doubtful) on a given night.

 

SkySky:

My top 3 season point totals are:

1. Vancouver UNDER 106.5
2. St. Louis OVER 91.5
3. Carolina OVER 83.5
 
I know I'll catch heat from the Nucks fans, but no way this year goes as easy as last. Many bumps in the road as I mentioned in a previous post.
 
A buddy of mine was out in Vegas recently and told me he saw the Blues O/U at 93.5. I don't know if he saw it wrong or if Bodog is shading that total. Maybe a few of the Vegas residents could chime in with a report. Regardless, I like the bet as previously stated but really like the +240 more playoff wager more. If you feel the Blues will pocket more than 91.5 points, you should really consider taking that playoff wager as well, or instead of the point total. Sure there is a scenario where they go over 91.5 points, but fail to make the playoffs, but the +240 is too good to pass up.
 
Carolina has a very good goalie and two very good forwards to go with a decent group of d-men. I'm not sure why the point total is only 83.5. It seems to me that it should be closer to 88.5. I know they lost some forwards and are pretty thin up front, but I feel that Ward will have to get hurt and/or have a poor season not to get to at least 84 points. I don't think they'll make the playoffs, but you have to have a pretty bad team not to get to 84 points these days.
 
I definitely like the Blues to make the playoffs and Phoenix not to make the playoffs wagers better because of the + prices than the season point total wagers.
 
I'm thinking of plucking down some scratch on Cary Price to win the Vezina.at 9-1 as well.
 
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#18
Posted: 10/3/2011 7:18:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TDD:

SkySky:

My top 3 season point totals are:

1. Vancouver UNDER 106.5
2. St. Louis OVER 91.5
3. Carolina OVER 83.5
 

 


Bingo,

My top 3 are STL, EDM and Carolina OVER

I was on STL and MIN OVER last season.
Got burned on the Blues badly, but I think
things set up well for them this year.
My only major concern is Halak.

I took Halak to have a better GAA against Quick
last season, got heavily burned on that one as well.

Like your top 3 a lot.

Good luck.
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#19
Posted: 10/3/2011 7:38:53 PM

The ridiculous amount of injuries last year was just too much to overcome for St. Louis.

I really think the extra rest this spring and summer will do marvels for Halak. Last year he had a very short summer after carrying the Habs to the ECF. Throw in the fact that he changed conferences and was now without question "the guy" in a different city probably unnerved him. There have been whispers about him not being fit enough last year to withstand the load of being a #1 goalie in the NHL. He was beaten quite often high on the glove side with many of those were goals coming from the short side. Whether it was fatigue or just the fact that his glove hand is mediocre at best, won't be known until this year.

If the Blues stay relatively healthy this year, Halak will have to horrible for them not to get to at least 92 points. If he plays above average and there are few injuries, they'll surprise with 100 points in an incredibly tough division.

Halak, Berglund, & Pietrangelo are the three keys guys to watch.

The Blues have forward depth to land another d-man in a trade and their two best prospects (Tarasenko and Schwartz) are also forwards.

Good luck with your bets this year!

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#20
Posted: 10/3/2011 9:08:34 PM
Hey TDD have you read NHL Prospectus 2011-12?
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#21
Posted: 10/3/2011 9:20:40 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by The-OG-GunClapa:

Hey TDD have you read NHL Prospectus 2011-12?

I have not. I'm always looking for information though. Is it worth my time?

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#22
Posted: 10/4/2011 12:56:51 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TDD:

I have not. I'm always looking for information though. Is it worth my time?


Definitely. The book backs alot of your reasoning and outlook on this coming year as well thats why I was curious. Great read for any hockey fan/gambler/fantasy player
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#23
Posted: 10/4/2011 12:59:59 AM
by the way thanks again for pointing out that coyotes bet
Me and my brother were talking about how bad they potentially could be this season and when I read that you found this bet at +140
my eyes lit up

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#24
Posted: 10/4/2011 8:07:56 AM

I might check it out. Old school to have a physical book to read :)

I used to be big into fantasy hockey in the 90's. I think my last year was 99-00. Back then I waited for The Hockey News Yearbook to come out to set my depth charts. I also used The Sporting News Register for stats. How times have changed. Obviously I go to multiple websites now.

I was just telling my nephew about a month ago that he should get into a couple of fantasy leagues for 2-3 years before he starts gambling on the sport. I always recommend to a beginner that playing in a fantasy league will force you into learning about teams and their depth charts and to a lesser extent, their line combos which gives you an edge compared to the casual gambler that bets on teams without knowing anything about them!

Even though I haven't played in a fantasy league in a dozen years now, I still have a big appetite for depth charts and line combinations. Most coaches these days don't give enough time for their lines to form some chemistry. Line combos usually get scrapped as soon as they fall behind 2-0 in a game. No patience at all from coaches.

Phoenix is down to +130 

 

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#25
Posted: 10/4/2011 7:24:41 PM
Goodluck with the plays TDD
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