Well, Last night I did just that...faded the consensus and went 3-1 with a +950 bucks night on 4, $500 bets. Follow along as I continue throughout the season. All you have to do is check your ego and pride at the door if you want to make money in any sport gambling. Most people lose money gambling at a 60% + clip...save yourself alot of time and pain and just fade the consensus. The hardest part is coming out of denial that you are one of the great majority that loses money in sports gambling. Look in the mirror and man up, face it...you do lose money. Now, fade the consensus with me...and make it back.
PM for the skinny on the down low
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Well, Last night I did just that...faded the consensus and went 3-1 with a +950 bucks night on 4, $500 bets. Follow along as I continue throughout the season. All you have to do is check your ego and pride at the door if you want to make money in any sport gambling. Most people lose money gambling at a 60% + clip...save yourself alot of time and pain and just fade the consensus. The hardest part is coming out of denial that you are one of the great majority that loses money in sports gambling. Look in the mirror and man up, face it...you do lose money. Now, fade the consensus with me...and make it back.
it is not that easy. Public opinion has no or very little influence on my picking. Sometimes public fall into the trap (like yesterday ORL and GS), sometimes hit the target. Simple fading the public is not the way to be recommended. I see the solution in more precise searching for value - which was in last year in NBA not so tough and demanding task as it had always been lets say in MLB. The favs were rolling and it was easy to catch the train and add some own picks. This year seems to be much harder - some garbage teams are overachieving (do not persuade me that Portland will win 80% of home games...), while other become completely unpredicatble and weird - e.g. Dallas. It is not about the conclusion that Dallas will not dominate as before and will have problems with c e r t a i n types of opponent strategy, it is about the fact that Dallas will be able to beat Spurs and then lose in New Jersey or so...
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it is not that easy. Public opinion has no or very little influence on my picking. Sometimes public fall into the trap (like yesterday ORL and GS), sometimes hit the target. Simple fading the public is not the way to be recommended. I see the solution in more precise searching for value - which was in last year in NBA not so tough and demanding task as it had always been lets say in MLB. The favs were rolling and it was easy to catch the train and add some own picks. This year seems to be much harder - some garbage teams are overachieving (do not persuade me that Portland will win 80% of home games...), while other become completely unpredicatble and weird - e.g. Dallas. It is not about the conclusion that Dallas will not dominate as before and will have problems with c e r t a i n types of opponent strategy, it is about the fact that Dallas will be able to beat Spurs and then lose in New Jersey or so...
I wish it were that easy, but its not. When I pick my games they are based on systems, strategies, trends and injurys. I don't look at any other picks. To date, I am hitting combined over 60% documented in the NBA, College BB and the NHL. I have been doing this for the past 10 years.
Don't you think if it were as easy as you say, everyone would be doing it? Vegas wouldn't exist.
You obvoiously are not an experienced capper, if you were, you would realize that this is not the way to approach it.
Good Luck!
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I wish it were that easy, but its not. When I pick my games they are based on systems, strategies, trends and injurys. I don't look at any other picks. To date, I am hitting combined over 60% documented in the NBA, College BB and the NHL. I have been doing this for the past 10 years.
Don't you think if it were as easy as you say, everyone would be doing it? Vegas wouldn't exist.
You obvoiously are not an experienced capper, if you were, you would realize that this is not the way to approach it.
seriously though, I don't think there's any "hard and fast rule" you can just follow and expect to make money in the NBA
fading the public in certain spots can yield results, and taking things on face value can also be a recipe for success
being patient and waiting for off lines, good spots ect is the key imo, even if it means making fewer plays, infact especially if it means making fewer plays
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seriously though, I don't think there's any "hard and fast rule" you can just follow and expect to make money in the NBA
fading the public in certain spots can yield results, and taking things on face value can also be a recipe for success
being patient and waiting for off lines, good spots ect is the key imo, even if it means making fewer plays, infact especially if it means making fewer plays
True, at times fading the consensus can make you money. I went 5-0 yesterday and MOST of my picks were faded. BUT, tuesday I ended up taking the consensus and went 3-1. If you continue to fade you will lose. You must go on stats and prior performances.. and hell thats no guarantee. Good luck to you, becareful.
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True, at times fading the consensus can make you money. I went 5-0 yesterday and MOST of my picks were faded. BUT, tuesday I ended up taking the consensus and went 3-1. If you continue to fade you will lose. You must go on stats and prior performances.. and hell thats no guarantee. Good luck to you, becareful.
Sorry, was out playing poker last night so didnt have a chance to respond until today. I believe many of you are missing the main premise of my statment, so I will repeat it. Most sports gamblers lose money long term. On this little board, there may be ...oh, say..100 regular posters who post their selected picks. Once you have selected the 2 or maybe 3 who actually do win over 50% of the time, its a very simple thing to fade those who dont because they are in the huge majority. Once you realize that the chances that you are in the other 97% who lose most of the time is overwhelming, and let go of the pride and ego, its a simple thing to simply take others picks and just fade them. No hard work involved either because you are "betting with the house" , and the house knows the truth that most gamblers are in denial about how much they lose, how often they lose and that they will probably lose again but will continue to lose ...even in the face of the facts.
Just look in the mirror and say it out loud...its ok. Its the first step to recovery.
"I am a sports gambler who loses money. When I win, I forget the losses. When I lose, I lose track of how much I have lost. My record is conveniently broken down into the last 10 or 20 or 30 games when I do go 10 - 5 or 15-7 so that I can "start over fresh" and never see the big picture. I am a sports gambling addcit and always will be."
See? Its not that hard and its quite refreshing to face the truth. Now, you can start to identify those who want to continue to be in denial instead of working so hard to handicap the games. And that process will be very very easy since the overwhelming majority of players do lose much more often than they win.
Don't you want to play with the people who built all those big, fancy casinos? Or ....do you want to continue fooling yourself?
Your choice my friends.
PM for the skinny on the down low
0
Sorry, was out playing poker last night so didnt have a chance to respond until today. I believe many of you are missing the main premise of my statment, so I will repeat it. Most sports gamblers lose money long term. On this little board, there may be ...oh, say..100 regular posters who post their selected picks. Once you have selected the 2 or maybe 3 who actually do win over 50% of the time, its a very simple thing to fade those who dont because they are in the huge majority. Once you realize that the chances that you are in the other 97% who lose most of the time is overwhelming, and let go of the pride and ego, its a simple thing to simply take others picks and just fade them. No hard work involved either because you are "betting with the house" , and the house knows the truth that most gamblers are in denial about how much they lose, how often they lose and that they will probably lose again but will continue to lose ...even in the face of the facts.
Just look in the mirror and say it out loud...its ok. Its the first step to recovery.
"I am a sports gambler who loses money. When I win, I forget the losses. When I lose, I lose track of how much I have lost. My record is conveniently broken down into the last 10 or 20 or 30 games when I do go 10 - 5 or 15-7 so that I can "start over fresh" and never see the big picture. I am a sports gambling addcit and always will be."
See? Its not that hard and its quite refreshing to face the truth. Now, you can start to identify those who want to continue to be in denial instead of working so hard to handicap the games. And that process will be very very easy since the overwhelming majority of players do lose much more often than they win.
Don't you want to play with the people who built all those big, fancy casinos? Or ....do you want to continue fooling yourself?
Sorry, was out playing poker last night so didnt have a chance to respond until today. I believe many of you are missing the main premise of my statment, so I will repeat it. Most sports gamblers lose money long term. On this little board, there may be ...oh, say..100 regular posters who post their selected picks. Once you have selected the 2 or maybe 3 who actually do win over 50% of the time, its a very simple thing to fade those who dont because they are in the huge majority. Once you realize that the chances that you are in the other 97% who lose most of the time is overwhelming, and let go of the pride and ego, its a simple thing to simply take others picks and just fade them. No hard work involved either because you are "betting with the house" , and the house knows the truth that most gamblers are in denial about how much they lose, how often they lose and that they will probably lose again but will continue to lose ...even in the face of the facts.
Just look in the mirror and say it out loud...its ok. Its the first step to recovery.
"I am a sports gambler who loses money. When I win, I forget the losses. When I lose, I lose track of how much I have lost. My record is conveniently broken down into the last 10 or 20 or 30 games when I do go 10 - 5 or 15-7 so that I can "start over fresh" and never see the big picture. I am a sports gambling addcit and always will be."
See? Its not that hard and its quite refreshing to face the truth. Now, you can start to identify those who want to continue to be in denial instead of working so hard to handicap the games. And that process will be very very easy since the overwhelming majority of players do lose much more often than they win.
Don't you want to play with the people who built all those big, fancy casinos? Or ....do you want to continue fooling yourself?
Your choice my friends.
Now it all makes sense
lol
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Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:
Sorry, was out playing poker last night so didnt have a chance to respond until today. I believe many of you are missing the main premise of my statment, so I will repeat it. Most sports gamblers lose money long term. On this little board, there may be ...oh, say..100 regular posters who post their selected picks. Once you have selected the 2 or maybe 3 who actually do win over 50% of the time, its a very simple thing to fade those who dont because they are in the huge majority. Once you realize that the chances that you are in the other 97% who lose most of the time is overwhelming, and let go of the pride and ego, its a simple thing to simply take others picks and just fade them. No hard work involved either because you are "betting with the house" , and the house knows the truth that most gamblers are in denial about how much they lose, how often they lose and that they will probably lose again but will continue to lose ...even in the face of the facts.
Just look in the mirror and say it out loud...its ok. Its the first step to recovery.
"I am a sports gambler who loses money. When I win, I forget the losses. When I lose, I lose track of how much I have lost. My record is conveniently broken down into the last 10 or 20 or 30 games when I do go 10 - 5 or 15-7 so that I can "start over fresh" and never see the big picture. I am a sports gambling addcit and always will be."
See? Its not that hard and its quite refreshing to face the truth. Now, you can start to identify those who want to continue to be in denial instead of working so hard to handicap the games. And that process will be very very easy since the overwhelming majority of players do lose much more often than they win.
Don't you want to play with the people who built all those big, fancy casinos? Or ....do you want to continue fooling yourself?
A word of advice...fade the consensus. Most people lose money gambling, its a dirty little secret and this board is no exception. I have been gambling 25 years and it took me a long time to realize that I was just one of the majority who lose money gambling. So now, instead of fading myself, which would be a severe blow to my ego, I fade the consensus and win 60% + now instead of losing 60% plus like I used to. This is the most important thing you will ever hear about gambling. Write it down and look in the mirror and realize that you are one of the great majority who lose money gambling. The sooner you make the switch and face reality, the sooner you will make money. Leave your pride and ego behind if you want to make money gambling. If you just want to be right and stroke your ego, you will continue to lose 60% of the time. Its up to you. Word to the wise...
Smack-jSince you are a self-proclaimed loser (>60% losses), and it took you 25 years to figure that out, now you have a word for the wise?
Why don't you just start posting your picks, (you have great track record as you have 25 years of hitting 60%+ losers, with 88 covers posts in 3 + years), it would seem to benefit all of us to be able to compare our picks to yours to make sure we are on the
right side.
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A word of advice...fade the consensus. Most people lose money gambling, its a dirty little secret and this board is no exception. I have been gambling 25 years and it took me a long time to realize that I was just one of the majority who lose money gambling. So now, instead of fading myself, which would be a severe blow to my ego, I fade the consensus and win 60% + now instead of losing 60% plus like I used to. This is the most important thing you will ever hear about gambling. Write it down and look in the mirror and realize that you are one of the great majority who lose money gambling. The sooner you make the switch and face reality, the sooner you will make money. Leave your pride and ego behind if you want to make money gambling. If you just want to be right and stroke your ego, you will continue to lose 60% of the time. Its up to you. Word to the wise...
Smack-jSince you are a self-proclaimed loser (>60% losses), and it took you 25 years to figure that out, now you have a word for the wise?
Why don't you just start posting your picks, (you have great track record as you have 25 years of hitting 60%+ losers, with 88 covers posts in 3 + years), it would seem to benefit all of us to be able to compare our picks to yours to make sure we are on the
Sorry, was out playing poker last night so didnt have a chance to respond until today. I believe many of you are missing the main premise of my statment, so I will repeat it. Most sports gamblers lose money long term. On this little board, there may be ...oh, say..100 regular posters who post their selected picks. Once you have selected the 2 or maybe 3 who actually do win over 50% of the time, its a very simple thing to fade those who dont because they are in the huge majority. Once you realize that the chances that you are in the other 97% who lose most of the time is overwhelming, and let go of the pride and ego, its a simple thing to simply take others picks and just fade them. No hard work involved either because you are "betting with the house" , and the house knows the truth that most gamblers are in denial about how much they lose, how often they lose and that they will probably lose again but will continue to lose ...even in the face of the facts.
Just look in the mirror and say it out loud...its ok. Its the first step to recovery.
"I am a sports gambler who loses money. When I win, I forget the losses. When I lose, I lose track of how much I have lost. My record is conveniently broken down into the last 10 or 20 or 30 games when I do go 10 - 5 or 15-7 so that I can "start over fresh" and never see the big picture. I am a sports gambling addcit and always will be."
See? Its not that hard and its quite refreshing to face the truth. Now, you can start to identify those who want to continue to be in denial instead of working so hard to handicap the games. And that process will be very very easy since the overwhelming majority of players do lose much more often than they win.
Don't you want to play with the people who built all those big, fancy casinos? Or ....do you want to continue fooling yourself?
Your choice my friends.
I find it hard to go against the majority sometimes but, its true what you say...i see the . GJ
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Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:
Sorry, was out playing poker last night so didnt have a chance to respond until today. I believe many of you are missing the main premise of my statment, so I will repeat it. Most sports gamblers lose money long term. On this little board, there may be ...oh, say..100 regular posters who post their selected picks. Once you have selected the 2 or maybe 3 who actually do win over 50% of the time, its a very simple thing to fade those who dont because they are in the huge majority. Once you realize that the chances that you are in the other 97% who lose most of the time is overwhelming, and let go of the pride and ego, its a simple thing to simply take others picks and just fade them. No hard work involved either because you are "betting with the house" , and the house knows the truth that most gamblers are in denial about how much they lose, how often they lose and that they will probably lose again but will continue to lose ...even in the face of the facts.
Just look in the mirror and say it out loud...its ok. Its the first step to recovery.
"I am a sports gambler who loses money. When I win, I forget the losses. When I lose, I lose track of how much I have lost. My record is conveniently broken down into the last 10 or 20 or 30 games when I do go 10 - 5 or 15-7 so that I can "start over fresh" and never see the big picture. I am a sports gambling addcit and always will be."
See? Its not that hard and its quite refreshing to face the truth. Now, you can start to identify those who want to continue to be in denial instead of working so hard to handicap the games. And that process will be very very easy since the overwhelming majority of players do lose much more often than they win.
Don't you want to play with the people who built all those big, fancy casinos? Or ....do you want to continue fooling yourself?
Your choice my friends.
I find it hard to go against the majority sometimes but, its true what you say...i see the . GJ
so did u take the patriots for the superbowl. all the damn consensus had more than 75 percent on giants. so that means u lost right. more than often fading the public works but u should do extra research too. AH FUCK IT JUST FOLLOW PUCKU27.
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so did u take the patriots for the superbowl. all the damn consensus had more than 75 percent on giants. so that means u lost right. more than often fading the public works but u should do extra research too. AH FUCK IT JUST FOLLOW PUCKU27.
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I have been gambling 25 years and it took me a long time to realize that I was just one of the majority who lose money gambling. 
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