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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: 4-0 Sweep Game 3. The Game 4 low down
TheForbes777 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Wynn Las Vegas |
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#1
Posted: 6/12/2013 7:33:44 PM

6/11/13

SA - 2: 250

SA 1H -1: 250

SA 1H OVER 93.5: 250

SA 2 H OVER 93.5: 50

Accept 2 games against a struggling Denver and one against Houston EARLY in the season miami has not had to bounce back against a quality squad following a loss.

They have never had to respond to a 20 loss the entire season, and more often than not the games the Heat have won following a loss were very close games. The streak Miami went on skews/hides a lot of their weaknesses. One thing you cannot deny is that they are ranked 30th in rebounding, and that is an achilles heel they cannot recover from.

Leaning heavy Spurs in game 4, over 187.5
Spurs 106-Heat 92
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#2
Posted: 6/12/2013 7:44:38 PM
The numbers and trends are relatively the same for this next situation tomorrow.

I'll continue to number crunch and put out the goods after some MLB action tonight (I keep telling myself to take a break, but I keep going back in). But from the "feel aspect" I think that the Heat are officially shook, while Pop and the texas Big 3 are ready to step on their throats.

Lebron has gone from confident in his team to "Its gotta be me!" Well which is is big guy? Now is not the time to be dealing with this. Especially when the Spurs' bench gets another shot at you, and at home none the less.

A number trends met head to head yesterday and the Spurs prevailed. Miami was rolling 24-12 after a win and going away vs. the Spurs 16-1 at home after a loss. Considering a blow out loss spurs represented a 6-1 record at home, as opposed to miami's 18-11 road record).

Now consider that you have absolutely no body of evidence to support MIA in a +20 blowout (never happened this season when they had to go on the road...only 1-1 ATS at home)....can you convince yourself that Miami will magically find a way to bounce back on 6/13? I personally cannot but I am exploring every possible avenue to find the answers.

Ride with me or tell me why to turn around. Good luck to all, congrats to everyone who made some loot this season! Peace
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#3
Posted: 6/12/2013 7:50:54 PM


Would love a Spurs win tomorrow as I have a futures on SA.  I would say if the Spurs win tomorrow then it's all over for Miami.  Amazing how many Heat fans are still saying Heat in 6 even after yesterday's loss?  They're gonna win 2 in a row in SA and then close out at home ?
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#4
Posted: 6/12/2013 8:11:48 PM
Great points made GL
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#5
Posted: 6/12/2013 9:14:20 PM
What if Parker can't play or has limited playing time?
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#6
Posted: 6/12/2013 9:37:58 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by pasta:

What if Parker can't play or has limited playing time?


i figured same.. Pop will let parker play.. and if parker has the ball he will not play as fast pace as he usually does.
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#7
Posted: 6/12/2013 11:06:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LiLMonsta:



i figured same.. Pop will let parker play.. and if parker has the ball he will not play as fast pace as he usually does.

..If Tony Parker doesn't play as fast as he usually does.. The Spurs will in effect be playing without Tony Parker.

If you have ever had a injured hamstring ..you know it will slow you down ..a lot .. whether you want to go fast or not doesn't matter ..

 If, Parker shows any signs of being any less Parker-like.. Pop will bench him rather than letting him play to prevent future injuring his hamstring ...a injury that would surely put him out for the rest of the series.

If there is one thing you have seen with the Pop ( esp. this year) he cares more about his players health,than they themselves care about it ..

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#8
Posted: 6/13/2013 11:02:27 AM
Spurs are 11-5 without Tony Parker.

When the Spurs benched their big 3 in Miami they almost outright beat the Miami heat, and Lebron and Co. were very lucky to win that game.

Tony Parker has not contributed much in regards to offense in the first 3 games. He HAS contributed a ton in assists. If he plays I expect more of the same....if he sits out we may get similar production from the next man up.
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#9
Posted: 6/13/2013 11:08:01 AM
Considering the UNDER 187 the more I think about this scenario. It took some heavy production from the Spurs last game to hit the over. I have a hard time thinking that the Spurs are going to continue that offensive assault of that pace...

...that being said I dont see anything getting better for Miami. They have lost their swagger, and have never been blown out like they have in the last game, nor have they trailed a series while on the road.

This is definitely one to think on....thoughts from the peanut gallery?
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#10
Posted: 6/13/2013 11:11:39 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TheForbes777:

Spurs are 11-5 without Tony Parker.

When the Spurs benched their big 3 in Miami they almost outright beat the Miami heat, and Lebron and Co. were very lucky to win that game.

Tony Parker has not contributed much in regards to offense in the first 3 games. He HAS contributed a ton in assists. If he plays I expect more of the same....if he sits out we may get similar production from the next man up.


C'mon man you don't really believe that do you?  Parker has contributed a ton offensively.  He is what makes their offense work.  Does he put up 30 points every game?  Maybe not.  Even his assist totals are impressive yet understated.  The offense runs through him and his decision making.  How many times is there a pick and roll, he drives and kicks, and they swing it for an open look?  He doesn't get the assist for that but he's the reason the play happened.  Happens all the time.

Also agree with the posted above about how if Parker is 75%, he'll be quite ineffective.  With his style of play, quickness and ability to slither through people and into small spaces is vital.  If he's down just a half step that would really hinder his play.  Also, with a hammy injury, you're much more hesitant to embrace contact with the defender.  On all of the pick and rolls where he has the ball, they're incredibly less effective if he doesn't brush shoulders with either the player setting the screen or a defender.  That could also play a huge part in tonight's game.  If the Spurs PNR or PNP is a half step behind what it should be, that could spell trouble for SA.
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#11
Posted: 6/13/2013 11:29:09 AM
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#12
Posted: 6/13/2013 11:31:29 AM
...what I was trying to get at was he hasn't scored many points. He has contributed every time they play. I'm also saying that I "think"

Corey Joseph can come right in and do good enough to get the rest of the team involved. (That 11-5 came against good teams too. They held the 2nd best record in the Western Conference having any combination of their big 3 out for a chunk of the season).

The BIG issue in this game is not Parker, nor his hamstring. The greater of two evils in is Lebron's head. He cant hit sh!t right now and he's put too much pressure on himself. His teammates cannot hang right now, and Leonard and Duncan have him shook.

Birdman dont fly on the road either.
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#13
Posted: 6/13/2013 11:33:12 AM
Didn't Miami respond to a loss against a quality team game 2 if this series? That wasn't close. I want the Spurs to win the series, but I have to go with Miami in this spot. If they lose this game I'm counting them out. They will fold. 
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#14
Posted: 6/13/2013 11:33:56 AM
*of this series
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#15
Posted: 6/13/2013 12:59:22 PM
I will not be surprised if Parker does not even step on the floor! As stated, a hamstring injury is nothing to mess around with; one quick burst and you tear your way to a lengthy injury.  If they rest Parker, they still have a good shot at winning the game and if they lose it is 2-2 and Parker can get a critical rest.  In my opinion Parker is too valuable for later games in this series to play him now.  If it was 2-1 Miami then I understand, but this is a good opportunity to rest your star and we all know Pop is capable of doing it.
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#16
Posted: 6/13/2013 1:01:37 PM

Who wins game 4?

Abbott: The no-brainer pick is the Heat, and it makes sense. When they play ferociously, they are undefeated and they tend to get ferocious after losses. In the playoffs they have won big. But just for fun, I'll say the Spurs will win, which is really just an expression of belief in Gregg Popovich, home-court advantage, and shooting ability.

Adande: Heat. We've come to another crossroads of LeBron's career. It's hard to believe he'd go out quietly right now in the prime of his career and at the peak of his powers. On the one hand, we keep having these make-or-break moments for LeBron. On the other hand, he must be doing something right if we keep having this discussion in June, if you know what I mean.

Arnovitz: Heat. Throughout the playoffs, the recent past for Miami has told us nothing about the immediate future. The Heat haven't lost consecutive games since the Ford Administration. With that and Parker's injury in mind, Miami seems poised to bounce back.

Christensen: Heat. LeBron has said he will do whatever it takes to get it going, and although I highly respect Greg Popovich, I wouldn't bet against the best player in the world. Miami knows this is practically a do-or-die game for them. They haven't lost consecutive games since Jan. 10, and they have shown the ability to bounce back from losses all season.

Pelton: Heat. Until proven otherwise, I'm going with the playoff-long trend that the Heat save their best basketball for the game after a loss. I think they win and turn the narrative of this series 180 degrees yet again.

 

good sign for spurs backers.  Lebron's going to do whatever it takes - thats all i hear - as if he hasnt tried to do that already.

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#17
Posted: 6/13/2013 1:03:03 PM
70% on miami spread, 70% on miami ML
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#18
Posted: 6/13/2013 1:11:38 PM

Lebron's going to do whatever it takes ..

Oh No!  Does that mean we will see a floparama?

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#19
Posted: 6/13/2013 2:01:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dopeman:

Who wins game 4?

Arnovitz: Heat. Throughout the playoffs, the recent past for Miami has told us nothing about the immediate future. The Heat haven't lost consecutive games since the Ford Administration. With that and Parker's injury in mind, Miami seems poised to bounce back.

Dopeman

Miami has lost back to back games a handful of times this season, all against teams that can spread the floor and shoot.

1. 12/4 L - Washington Wizards (okay, call it a letdown) ---12/6 L - NY Knicks (they were supposed to be up for this game and playing on the big stage at MSG right?)

2. 12/28 L - Detroit, 12/29 L - MIL....12/31 W-OT vs Orlando? C'mon

3. 1/8 L - IND, 1/10 L - Portland...they beat sactown and then lose next game to Utah (this was in the middle of a Brutal roady...against no teams on the Spurs level

They lose again to IND before going on an inflated win streak against sub par-mid tier teams. Take nothing away from that accomplishment as it is still a feat to be admired...but dont overvalue it. That team ended the streak against Chicago, and honestlyl I thinked they peaked during that point and have lost their mental confidence.

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#20
Posted: 6/13/2013 2:35:34 PM
my take is under is the play, and I'd lean Heat.  Many MANY great points above, great contributions to the discussion.  Fact is Parker will be limited in his ability to accelerate and cut which will limit his ability to drive and go for the rack or kick out the ball. He likely won't play much as was noted above.  I actually think Kawhi Leonard is the wild card, hell of a player for a young guy.  Can he do more? I think he'll need to for Spurs to win here.  GL guys
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#21
Posted: 6/13/2013 4:49:15 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dopeman:

Who wins game 4?

Abbott: The no-brainer pick is the Heat, and it makes sense. When they play ferociously, they are undefeated and they tend to get ferocious after losses. In the playoffs they have won big. But just for fun, I'll say the Spurs will win, which is really just an expression of belief in Gregg Popovich, home-court advantage, and shooting ability.

Adande: Heat. We've come to another crossroads of LeBron's career. It's hard to believe he'd go out quietly right now in the prime of his career and at the peak of his powers. On the one hand, we keep having these make-or-break moments for LeBron. On the other hand, he must be doing something right if we keep having this discussion in June, if you know what I mean.

Arnovitz: Heat. Throughout the playoffs, the recent past for Miami has told us nothing about the immediate future. The Heat haven't lost consecutive games since the Ford Administration. With that and Parker's injury in mind, Miami seems poised to bounce back.

Christensen: Heat. LeBron has said he will do whatever it takes to get it going, and although I highly respect Greg Popovich, I wouldn't bet against the best player in the world. Miami knows this is practically a do-or-die game for them. They haven't lost consecutive games since Jan. 10, and they have shown the ability to bounce back from losses all season.

Pelton: Heat. Until proven otherwise, I'm going with the playoff-long trend that the Heat save their best basketball for the game after a loss. I think they win and turn the narrative of this series 180 degrees yet again.

 







Five squareball journalists all picking the Heat.  Nice.
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#22
Posted: 6/13/2013 5:14:18 PM
I would wish you luck, "ACCEPT" I think I will be on heatles. Gabby told dwade if he has a big game tonight, she will finally let him smack again. I think that's reason enough to go hard.
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#23
Posted: 6/13/2013 5:50:25 PM

6/13/13

Spurs +1: 100

Spurs 1st Half PK: 100

Spurs UNDER 187: 250

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#24
Posted: 6/13/2013 6:05:15 PM
  Good luck man.  Like your style!
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#25
Posted: 6/13/2013 8:01:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TheForbes777:

6/13/13

Spurs +1: 100

Spurs 1st Half PK: 100

Spurs UNDER 187: 250

Liked over better---think they both know they gotta be sharp and score tonight! Both want this game... 

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