The "Public" about to get rocked in Games 3,4, and 5.

Quote Originally Posted by PapaShango:

Finals Record: 2-0

My thoughts...

After game 2, I said to a friend I was watching the game with that I would most likely be pounding the Spurs after their blowout loss in Miami.  However, the more I think about it, the more this game looks like a trap for Spurs backers.  Not quite sure why there is so much love in this specific game for the Spurs.  I have the Spurs winning in 7 games, but tonight I don't like their chances.  Miami is 6-1 ATS as a dog this season.  The lone loss came at home against NY when Lebron and Wade did not play.  As a Heat backer tonight, I love the fact that the Spurs are favored by 2.  The books will have a ton of ML juice coming their way as Spurs backers will get nervous about laying 2 points, thus laying -135 will be a huge mistake.  It's just too easy to think the Spurs bounce back from game 2 and win tonight, IMO.  I think the Heat will win tonight and may possibly win pretty easily.  Then game 4, the "Public" will be all over Miami's cockks once again.  Game 4 spread will probably by pickem or maybe even Heat -1 and you'll see majority of the "public" on Miami.  Spurs will win that game tying the series at 2.  Game 5 will have the all of the people that think Miami cannot lose two in a row gear up and pound Miami.  Spurs will win game 5 and take a 3-2 lead back to Miami.  Miami wins desperation game 6, then loses game 7, a game in which the "Public" will pound Miami yet again. 

I may be looking too deep into this, but those are my thoughts.  Tonight I'm on Miami +2.  Games 4 and 5, I will most likely be on San Antonio.  GL to everyone tonight. 

Heat +2 -110

Quote Originally Posted by Django6:

 Danny Crawford reffing Game 3. Heat are 19-3 (won last 7) in playoff games since 04' when he's got the whistle.

Quote Originally Posted by ICAPSports:

Spurs in 7 yet losing tonight....so you have Spurs winning next 3 out of 4 against Miami then after tonight...highly highly unlikely...winner tonight w HUGE advantage to win this series

Quote Originally Posted by Gavinnick:

Papa you may have changed my mind on the Spurs....

Quote Originally Posted by PapaShango:

Finals Record: 2-0

My thoughts...

After game 2, I said to a friend I was watching the game with that I would most likely be pounding the Spurs after their blowout loss in Miami.  However, the more I think about it, the more this game looks like a trap for Spurs backers.  Not quite sure why there is so much love in this specific game for the Spurs.  I have the Spurs winning in 7 games, but tonight I don't like their chances.  Miami is 6-1 ATS as a dog this season.  The lone loss came at home against NY when Lebron and Wade did not play.  As a Heat backer tonight, I love the fact that the Spurs are favored by 2.  The books will have a ton of ML juice coming their way as Spurs backers will get nervous about laying 2 points, thus laying -135 will be a huge mistake.  It's just too easy to think the Spurs bounce back from game 2 and win tonight, IMO.  I think the Heat will win tonight and may possibly win pretty easily.  Then game 4, the "Public" will be all over Miami's cockks once again.  Game 4 spread will probably by pickem or maybe even Heat -1 and you'll see majority of the "public" on Miami.  Spurs will win that game tying the series at 2.  Game 5 will have the all of the people that think Miami cannot lose two in a row gear up and pound Miami.  Spurs will win game 5 and take a 3-2 lead back to Miami.  Miami wins desperation game 6, then loses game 7, a game in which the "Public" will pound Miami yet again. 

I may be looking too deep into this, but those are my thoughts.  Tonight I'm on Miami +2.  Games 4 and 5, I will most likely be on San Antonio.  GL to everyone tonight. 

Heat +2 -110

Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

Hey Papa -- hope all is well with you

I actually think that vast majority of bettors will be on Miami tonight -- after all, how often do you get to catch LeBron as a dog? We know bettors have very short term memories, and the last thing they remember is watch MIA run SAS off of the court in the second half of Game 2. Add in to the fact that ESPN is pimping the hell out of a stat that says that the Spurs have only won one quarter out of the eight played so far in the finals, and it seems to me like everything is lining up for a large number of people to back MIA with the points and the moneyline. No play on this game for me, but if I had to pick one, I'd probably lay the bucket with SAS. I still think that Pop is a better coach than Spo, and wouldn't be shocked to see some serious mid-series adjustments here now from Pop.

Just my thoughts, for whatever they are worth

Quote Originally Posted by ICAPSports:

Spurs in 7 yet losing tonight....so you have Spurs winning next 3 out of 4 against Miami then after tonight...highly highly unlikely...winner tonight w HUGE advantage to win this series

Quote Originally Posted by piknroll:

This is the exact reasoning for my bet.  Pretty much verbatim. BOL to us.

Quote Originally Posted by bob696969:

Papashango - you are the "public", just like everyone on this forum. just the fact that you are handicapping based on the " public" means you are the public lol. handicapp the game, not the betting... use the betting patterns to get the best line for the side you like.

Quote Originally Posted by bob696969:

History has shown since '85, winning games on the road when facing elimination is very difficult in the finals. off the top of my head, i can only think of two such examples - suns in '93, down 3-1 winning game 5 in chicago, and pistons in '05, winning game 6 on the road in san antonio. i said it before the series started and i will say it again - spurs will not win a game 7, if you like the spurs to win series, take them on the alternate line -1.5 games @ +235.

Quote Originally Posted by PapaShango:



Covers "Consensus" has Spurs at 64% for whatever that's worth and Vegasinsider has Spurs at 55%.  The money will probably be pretty even tonight.  Hard to pass up Heat as dogs, but also hard to pass up Spurs as small home favs.  I think the line at Spurs -2 with ML juice being around -135 is pretty telling on which way the books are leaning.  Just my thought analyzing the line. 

Quote Originally Posted by bob696969:

Papashango - you are the "public", just like everyone on this forum. just the fact that you are handicapping based on the " public" means you are the public lol. handicapp the game, not the betting... use the betting patterns to get the best line for the side you like.

Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:



I think you know what I think about the reliability of those numbers and the conclusions that should (or in my case, should not) be drawn from that data.

Quote Originally Posted by PapaShango:



On paper that makes sense, but look at Heat vs Mavs two years ago.  Heat won game 1 and then lost 4 of next 5, losing the last 3 in a row.  If Heat win tonight and Spurs win 4 and 5, you don't think Spurs can win one of two in Miami?  They already did it in game 1.