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Better Value than Moneyline

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
Folks, if you're considering taking Heat -325 or so on the ML tonight, you can get better odds taking multiple Margin of Victory bets up to a certain cap.  Here's what I'll do for example to show the math:

I think the Heat will win, but not by 16 or more.  Instead of putting $50 on Heat -325, bet the following:
$10 on Margin of Victory 1-3 @ +700
$10 on Margin of Victory 4-6 @ +850
$10 on Margin of Victory 7-9 @ +800
$10 on Margin of Victory 10-12 @ +900
$10 on Margin of Victory 13-15 @ +1200

If the Heat win but not by 16 or more, I profit.  The thing is, the value on this bet is much better than the -325.  I will lose 4 of these bets and win 1 of them, as planned.  The worst payout on the winning bet is +700, or $70 winning.  Winning $70 and losing $40 (losing the other 4 $10 bets) with projected MINIMUM profit of $30 on an aggregate (all 5 bets).  The $30 profit on the $50 bet is the same as a moneyline of -166.  Again this synthetic moneyline of -166 is much better value than the single bet moneyline of -325.  Essentially, bettors taking -325 are expecting half the money back in profit for insurance against the Heat winning by 16 or more.  That's a bet I'm willing to make all day every day.  Who's with me?


 
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Posted: #2
good analysis
 
Prospect
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Posted: #3
Great points, except you forgot one glaring note...the Pacers win. 
 
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Posted: #4
Which book??
 
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Posted: #5
sb.ag
 
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Posted: #6
So the -166 synthetic ML I described here was worse case scenario.  Again I'm looking to win 1 of those 5 bets, lose the other 4.  The -166 ML was if the 1-3 margin of victory hit.  Say, for example, the Heat win by 13-15, which is +1200.  So then that wins 120 on the $10 bet, and I lose $40 still on the other 4.  Net profit of $80.  $80 profit on $50 bet is moneyline of +160. 

So, my moneyline on the night taking Heat to win by not more than 15 is somewhere between -166 and +160.  Again the only difference between this and the -325 ML is the risk that Heat win by 16+ which I don't think happens in a game 7 especially vs Pacers' D.
 
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Posted: #7
What happens when Miami wins by 16? 

 
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Posted: #8
purpledays - that's the risk but to me it's a risk worth taking.  It's me taking the risk that Heat don't win by 16 or more for DOUBLE the payout than the standard -320 moneyline.  No guarantees ever, just a good bet though IMO.
 
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Posted: #9
actually the payout is anywhere between double standard moneyline payout (if the 1-3 margin of victory hits at +700) and 5.3 times the payout of the standard moneyline (if 13-15 margin of victory hits at +1200). 

Basically if you're going to take Heat ML and DON'T do this, you're just throwing away value and potential profit.  If you think Heat have a good chance of winning by 16+, well then you shouldn't be betting ML anyway but take lay the 6.5. 
 
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Posted: #10
Pacers win!'
 
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Posted: #11

If you want to bet the Heat, but you don't want to give up points or pay large ML juice I would recommend trying to make a "live in-game bet". 

Most of the games in this series have been close, back and forth games with several shifts in momentum.  Unless the Heat lead the game from start to finish you will be able to get an in-game ML under -320. 

-320 is a lot of juice.  There is very little value in betting anything at -320... except maybe Floyd Mayweahter.

 
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Posted: #12
Moneymaker - if the pacers win, this bet loses the same amount as taking the moneyline -325 for $50.  The point is not to say the Heat win, guaranteed profits.  The point was to show that IF a bettor is going to take Heat moneyline but doesn't think it'll be a blowout (and why would you bet ML and not spread if you did think it'll be a blowout) there is another way of having the same exposure for a MUCH better price.  All we can do is improve our odds and go from there, that's all I was showing here.
 
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Posted: #13
Usually I open these threads, prepared to laugh because someone doesn't understand the true math involved but you hit it pretty well. If you are willing to accept the risk of a 16pt+ win relative to the prices you are getting, it's not a bad option. 

 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by HoosierBettor:

Moneymaker - if the pacers win, this bet loses the same amount as taking the moneyline -325 for $50.  The point is not to say the Heat win, guaranteed profits.  The point was to show that IF a bettor is going to take Heat moneyline but doesn't think it'll be a blowout (and why would you bet ML and not spread if you did think it'll be a blowout) there is another way of having the same exposure for a MUCH better price.  All we can do is improve our odds and go from there, that's all I was showing here.

Well said. 
 
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Posted: #15
Fun thing is that if you hit on this synthetic moneyline bet I proposed, you'd want to hit a higher heat win total, somewhere in 10-15 range for the higher payout, but you'd not want the Heat to win by 16+.  So it's a matter of rooting whether you get greedy or just take the Heat win by a couple and not have to sweat a blowout of 16+.  Lets go!
 
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Posted: #16

why not take pacers +7.5 $50

and bet a 10 on each of the other props ?

 
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Posted: #17
I liked your thought process here, unfortunately you got railed in the bum on this one, not a bash here, I actually want to say that it was good thought process and I may use this method down the road sometime
 
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Posted: #18
Well even though nobody will believe me on this, I didn't end up betting my proposed bet here last night.  I actually had all my money tied up in Heat series bet of -425 which worked out.  But anyway, that doesn't take away from the point that I wanted to show here about how you can get good value using Margin of Victory or other futures bets vs the standard moneyline.  If you dig a little and do some math, there's value to be had.
 
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Posted: #19
 value to be had? your whole theory was blown to smithereens 
 
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by Champ_Iz_Here:

 value to be had? your whole theory was blown to smithereens 


False, clearly you're an amateur bettor.  Just because a bet fails doesn't mean you didn't get the best value for your money.  What you're saying is comparable to an amateur poker player saying that I was wrong to go all in with AK vs AQ after AQ won.  Like I said before, all we can do as bettors is position ourselves with the best odds possible then let the rest play out.  There are bad beats in betting too.  You'll learn.
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