NBA Playoffs: 15-11 +7.75 units
MIAMI V INDIANA OVER 181 -115 TO WIN 2 UNITS
I tweeted this one out earlier today... I bought off the 181.5 to get a flat number at 181 tonight.
As I stated at the start of the playoffs for easier record keeping I am combining my tweeted plays with my covers plays so as to keep a consistent log of my record for these NBA playffs.
I had over 181 in game 2 and while that game needed a miracle 3 point shot at the 4th quarter buzzer to get the win, the game was already on the push by the time George made that shot.
So what is it boys and girls? What is the true matchup that we should be handicapping tonight? The first two low scoring quarters of game two or the high scoring 3rd and 4th quarters of game two? Which one is the real expectation for how these teams match up against each other. Notwithstanding those horribly low scoring 1st and 2nd quarter scores in game 2, the game still managed to go over the total in regulation time. Even if we discount the 3rd and 4th quarters but give credit to perhaps more scoring in the 1st and 2nd, the game still averages out nicely to the total which in my respectful opinion is 4 points low for tonight's game.
How do these teams REALLY match up against each other? Consider they have gone 6-1 "over" in the last 6 head to head meetings with relatively similar over under lines. THAT is what I feel the true head to head matchups are more consistent with.
The Heat are averaging 99 ppg in the post season. Indiana is averaging 93 ppg. Indiana is allowing 90 ppg while the Heat are allowing 86 ppg. Using the simplest of math, this puts the game at 184. However, consider the following factors.
How these play against each other which brings me back to that prior stat about the over dominating the recent history between these two teams.
Excluding that game 1 OT game, the prior games resulted in combined points scored of 196, 191, 164, 198, 198 and 194. You can see that the tendency has been for these two teams to play into the 190's when they have met up of late. The 164 games is the anomaly, not the norm.
I also can't overlook tonight's officiating crew's numbers when looking at this game given the relativel low total. Consider tonight's crew with relevent footnotes:
John Goble: Average total score in games officiated this year, 196. 3-2 over with totals of 184.5 or less.
Bill Kennedy, Average total score in games officiated this year, 197 and 8-2 "over" when officiating games with totals of 184.5 or less.
Tom Washington Average total score in games officiated this year, 192.9 with the over at 5-5 in games with a total of 184.5 or less.
Scott Foster with an average total score in games officiated this year of 198.8 with the over going 12-1 in games he officiated with totals of 184.5 or less.
As you can see we have a crew tonight who is more prone to higher scoring games. Foster is 6-2-1 'over' in his last 10 games officiated with the Pacers involved and 6-2-1 'over' in games involving the Heat.
Kennedy is 7-3 "over" in his last 10 games officiated with the Pacers involved and 5-3-2 in games with the Heat involved.
Washington is 6-3-1 'over' in his last 10 games officiated with the Pacers involved and 5-4-1 when the Heat are involved.
As you can see, the officiating crew might come into play tonight considering their averages Of course, this isn't the only factor but IT IS a significant consideration.
Game 1 probably started off slow out of the game thanks to the period of rest both teams had in between games. As you can see though, Once they got back into the flow and got their game legs going, they started hitting their shots which resulted in a considerably higher scoring second half.
With that lay-off no longer a factor now, I expect things to revert back to the mean and project that this game will see a final score in the low 190's. According to my handicap and my models, 186 is the "mean" number by which we should base our handicapping for this total.
Looking at situational stats, I note that the Heat are 15-5 'over' (75% of the time) when the total is between 180-189.5 this season with the average combined score in those 20 games at 190.9.
The Heat are 18-9 “over” as home favorites of 6.5 -12 points this season with those games averaging 203 combined points
The Heat are 12-4 OVER (75%) in home games where they won SU but failed to cover with those games averaging 205.9 total points and 11-3 “over” if that win off the no-cover was at home. (204 combined points)