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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Grizzlies are the way to go tonight! (With write-up)
scalabrine send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 5/7/2013 9:40:02 AM
Thunder needed two clutch Durant baskets in the final minute to win last game.he drained both. Grizz had went 0-2 in those possessions and then trailing by one, threw the ball out of bounds and put the Thunder on the line to go up by 3.

Even at that, the Grizz still had a chance to win with Pondexter getting fouled behind the three point line and then converting 1 of 3 with an intentional miss on the last shot.

Final 4 possessions for the Grizz yielded 1 point and 2 turnovers handing the game to the Thunder on a silver platter....and they still covered the +3.5.

The bookies have no choice but to release a very similar line tonight at +2.5 and I'll take whatever points they are offering along with ML action.

Grizz gave up a 12 point lead in the 3rd with the Thunder playing from behind the entire 2nd half, had a balanced scoring attack with 5 players in double figures (Thunder only 3) and got the same consistent production out of their bigs In Gasol and Randolph who are still pounding it down low effectively as they did against the Clips.

The other reason why I love the Grizz here is that they already lost a nailbiter in game 2 against the Clippers with a last second layup by Paul last series. They will be reminded of that game tonight.

You can't expect to win 4 of the next 5 (or in the case of last series 4 of 4) in the playoffs against the top teams in the west, especially not against the Thunder.

Durant will get his points but if Marin doesn't give you 25 again, who picks up the slack? Westbrook would and he's not there. Jackson can't be expected to provide anywhere near that in any given game, especially the playoffs. And they needed every one of his 25 to take last game by 2.

Grizz gut out the must win...


GRIZZ MONEYLINE IS THE PICK

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milky24
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#2
Posted: 5/7/2013 9:50:14 AM
Totally agreed. Best bet this playoffs offered by far imo. MEM super size me tonight 
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#3
Posted: 5/7/2013 10:42:29 AM
Loving both the dogs tonight
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#4
Posted: 5/7/2013 10:44:25 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by milky24:

Totally agreed. Best bet this playoffs offered by far imo. MEM super size me tonight 

It's a very solid spot and I am very comfortable backing them.
The game 1 loss was only to the Grizz's backers benefit. Ya can't lay 5 5.5 to the Thunder in Memphis and feel comfortable when the series goes there. Ya get 2.5 tonight if you're a line guy and ML odds in a must win. Great spot.
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#5
Posted: 5/7/2013 10:51:44 AM
i dont see the thunder going down 0-2.gimme okc-145 at home on the ML.
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#6
Posted: 5/7/2013 10:59:24 AM
thunder is up 1-0
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milky24
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#7
Posted: 5/7/2013 11:01:00 AM
Yeah, the fact that I took MEM+3 last time and they still lost, only worked for me. Now i can take them again with more chances of them winning, and then i'm nailing this series. A series of mistakes in the last minute+outstanding game by Martin won't happen again, Grizz play defense, and do not rely only on their shoot making, this is why I LOVE them in this spot. I think they bang it tonight with a SU win of 5-6 points margin.

This is a must take bet. BEST BY NOW.


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#8
Posted: 5/7/2013 11:03:34 AM
Only thing that scares me is actually Vegas conspiracies kind. Dogs have been rolling the last days with SU wins and easy covers. Never the Bulls spread was in danger (only one time Heat lead by 7 or 8) and Bulls came right back.

So, can the dogs nail another night? I sure hope so...
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#9
Posted: 5/7/2013 11:11:28 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TreyInventor:

Loving both the dogs tonight
 with you on the Grizz 
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#10
Posted: 5/7/2013 11:12:21 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by rarafromphilly:

i dont see the thunder going down 0-2.gimme okc-145 at home on the ML.

Yeah, thunder are up a game in the series, not down.
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#11
Posted: 5/7/2013 11:16:07 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by milky24:

Only thing that scares me is actually Vegas conspiracies kind. Dogs have been rolling the last days with SU wins and easy covers. Never the Bulls spread was in danger (only one time Heat lead by 7 or 8) and Bulls came right back.

So, can the dogs nail another night? I sure hope so...

It's regression to the mean.

Many of the favorites were winning to open the playoffs (spurs crushing lakers, heat gutting bucks etc.), now it's the dogs turn.

But forget about that anyway. Grizz are in a must win here and as you noted it's a great spot.

We don't avoid bets by hiding under our covers with our heads peeking out because we are afraid of conspiracies against our bets.

We bet it and don't look back. 
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#12
Posted: 5/7/2013 11:21:50 AM
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#13
Posted: 5/7/2013 11:40:41 AM
not saying your wrong but be real careful because the last 5 game's the underdog's did cover or won the game outright 5-0. I just can't see both dogs winning today that would be 7-0 and the odds of that happening are not good but gl 
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#14
Posted: 5/7/2013 11:55:44 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dilaudid8:

not saying your wrong but be real careful because the last 5 game's the underdog's did cover or won the game outright 5-0. I just can't see both dogs winning today that would be 7-0 and the odds of that happening are not good but gl 


Thunder did not win last game so dogs are 4-1 SU. Like He said its a regression to the mean. I have teased the dogs almost every game I have played in playoffs. I had both Memphis and Indy game 1 and I will tease both today again.

Memphis +8.5 and Indy +12...cmon, Thunder prob lose this game and New York IF they win will not win by 13...
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#15
Posted: 5/7/2013 12:08:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dilaudid8:

not saying your wrong but be real careful because the last 5 game's the underdog's did cover or won the game outright 5-0. I just can't see both dogs winning today that would be 7-0 and the odds of that happening are not good but gl 

Forget the Knicks game.

Just concentrate on the Grizz game. 

Do you like the spot the Grizz are in getting 2.5 in a must win? (It is a must win or you are looking at 4 wins in 5 which is a mountain to climb against a team like this. You can do it against the Clips, but the Thunder?)

If you don't, take the Thunder. I just don't see the Grizz coming out flat in this game and I think they know they have the Thunder's number here.

Durant scored a boatload of points. That is not a gameplan. Grizz ran an effective half court set and grabbed a 12 point lead. Quell Durant even a bit and you win.

Are you comfortable backing the Thunder laying points after reading that?
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#16
Posted: 5/7/2013 12:11:05 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JBrilman:



Thunder did not win last game so dogs are 4-1 SU. Like He said its a regression to the mean. I have teased the dogs almost every game I have played in playoffs. I had both Memphis and Indy game 1 and I will tease both today again.

Memphis +8.5 and Indy +12...cmon, Thunder prob lose this game and New York IF they win will not win by 13...

I think teasing in the playoffs is the way to go.

But the Grizz ML is too much for me to leave on the table.
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#17
Posted: 5/7/2013 12:20:21 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 1bajalife:

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milky24
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#18
Posted: 5/7/2013 12:24:17 PM
Scalabrine, all the things you wrote i agree 100%.

Grizz are in a huge spot for a win, not just the cover.

They are by far the better team here, and if it wasn't for Durant... They just have to double up him and rotate as they know. OKC are NOT that good. 

I can sure see the Grizz taking the home court lead tonight, but i do wish that i had 5 straight favs wins and not 5 straight dog covers. (although i made a ton last few days taking the dogs LOL)
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#19
Posted: 5/7/2013 12:26:49 PM
U seem to forget that OKC were something like 5-15 from the 3PT-FG and that's why, imo, Memphis were in front + having 5 players in double figures, so, they were playing a 80-90% of their A game and still got beaten by this RW-less OKC team.I expect Ibaka to step up (only 5p in 1st game lol) and Fisher with atleast 3pointers.
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#20
Posted: 5/7/2013 12:33:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by doridoridori:

U seem to forget that OKC were something like 5-15 from the 3PT-FG and that's why, imo, Memphis were in front + having 5 players in double figures, so, they were playing a 80-90% of their A game and still got beaten by this RW-less OKC team.I expect Ibaka to step up (only 5p in 1st game lol) and Fisher with atleast 3pointers.



No. You forget that Martin had the game of his life in Oklahoma, Durant was a beast and Fisher made more shots than he usually does. OKC couldn't find the rim because MEM played tremendous defense and execute perfectly on the offensive end.
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#21
Posted: 5/7/2013 1:20:31 PM
I like Memphis and the insurance +2.5.  So much so that it's my biggest wager thus far in the NBA playoffs.  BOL to us!

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#22
Posted: 5/7/2013 1:27:31 PM
And still OKC won. Game of his life?! He had 25 in Houston also.
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#23
Posted: 5/7/2013 1:27:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by milky24:

Scalabrine, all the things you wrote i agree 100%.

Grizz are in a huge spot for a win, not just the cover.

They are by far the better team here, and if it wasn't for Durant... They just have to double up him and rotate as they know. OKC are NOT that good. 

I can sure see the Grizz taking the home court lead tonight, but i do wish that i had 5 straight favs wins and not 5 straight dog covers. (although i made a ton last few days taking the dogs LOL)

Hey, ya can't have it all. It's a great spot, dog covers or no dog covers.
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#24
Posted: 5/7/2013 1:29:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by milky24:

Only thing that scares me is actually Vegas conspiracies kind. Dogs have been rolling the last days with SU wins and easy covers. Never the Bulls spread was in danger (only one time Heat lead by 7 or 8) and Bulls came right back.

So, can the dogs nail another night? I sure hope so...


always good to take the points in the playoffs. even if its 12 like the bulls
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#25
Posted: 5/7/2013 1:32:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by doridoridori:

U seem to forget that OKC were something like 5-15 from the 3PT-FG and that's why, imo, Memphis were in front + having 5 players in double figures, so, they were playing a 80-90% of their A game and still got beaten by this RW-less OKC team.I expect Ibaka to step up (only 5p in 1st game lol) and Fisher with atleast 3pointers.

Ibaka was 1-10 for a reason. He couldn't establish the low post due to the presence of Grizz's bigs to get easy buckets and clean up the garbage on the offensive boards. He flourished in Houston because they go small and he has position and Asik is nowhere near Gasol on either end of the floor. While he won't have 5 PTs tonight, even if he doubles that it will not be enough.

And if you want to depend of Fisher for anything with regard to a cover in a playoff game, I wish you luck. 
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