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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: RussellK's One Play a Day - Week 3
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RussellK
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#1
Posted: 11/19/2012 7:07:09 PM
Week 1: 4-1 +$2900   

Week 2: 0-3 -$3400   


Ok, I am putting last week behind me....I had an amazing weekend....drove down to Ann Arbor to see Iowa play Michigan at the Big House with the wife and kids....both my sons play football and my older one is teammates with the younger brother of Tevaun Smith, a freshman WR on Iowa, so we drove down with his mother and brother for the game....wow what a stadium....attendance was 113,000, and it was the 244th consecutive game with over 100,000 people....assuming 6 home games a year that's going back some 40 years....that is just nuts....

Now I am back refreshed and ready to win some money    


Here are my thoughts on tonight's card (like a lot of favs tonight):

Milwaukee - not much to complain about so far if you're a Bucks fan....winners of 3 straight and 3-0 on the road....Bucks are the better team and should be able to cover the 5 point spread...like this play a lot...

Atlanta - Hawks stumbling a bit out of the gate, especially at home where they are only 1-2 so far....but a date with the Magic cures what ails ya....Orlando just 1-4 on the road, hard to see how they don't get blown out here....

Memphis - Best team in the NBA? Hard to argue against that notion when their last 3 games have been wins over both of last year's finalists, Miami and OKC, followed by handing the Knicks their 1st loss of the season...Nuggets struggling right now, losing 3 straight, and particularly on the road, where they are just 2-5....only hesitation is that the spread seems too low...feels like the spread should be somewhere around 10-12....smells like a backdoor cover to me....

GS - Only dog I have any faith in....Warriors played well last night in a loss in OKC Sunday, which snapped a 2-game winning streak....Mavs 4-1 at home but Warriors have always given Dallas headaches....Warriors can win this game so I like getting 5-6 points.....

Utah - Jazz a perfect 3-0 at home and coming off a gritty win in Philly where they overcame an early 30-18 hole....Rockets have lost their last 2, and over their last 4 have given up over 111 ppg....Utah should have no trouble outscoring Houston....like this play a lot....

San Antonio - Hard to fade a team on a 5-game winning streak like the Clippers, but the thing I really like about this game is the revenge factor for the Spurs....Clippers started their current winning streak by crushing San Antonio by 22 in LA, 12 days ago, and the Spurs are  too proud to let that go without a response....really like this play and it almost made the cut

But in the end I decided to go with MNF and take the Chicago Bears - both starting QBs are out with concussions, but Jason Campbell is a lot better and way more experienced then Colin Kaepernick, and the Bears have more weapons on both offense and defense....getting points is great when I feel like Chicago should win this game outright....I like the under 34 as well, except that the Bears D can score a couple of TDs and get over the total....

Chicago +4 (bought the hook -120)

$1200 to win $1000   


BOL to all   
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#2
Posted: 11/19/2012 7:35:42 PM
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#3
Posted: 11/19/2012 7:36:40 PM
Thanks for the write up! glad to see your back! 

I went with the under 34 on the MNF game.  Harbaugh's always have something up their sleeve, I think the tie last week for SF made them work their behind off this week.  This will be a close game, for sure! BOL  
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#4
Posted: 11/19/2012 7:50:42 PM
BOL guys

all the best
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#5
Posted: 11/19/2012 8:05:13 PM
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#6
Posted: 11/19/2012 10:42:15 PM
I am with you bro, but it look like 0-1 for this week so far :( 

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#7
Posted: 11/20/2012 7:16:42 PM
... let's go bro
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#8
Posted: 11/20/2012 7:55:54 PM
Ok well that sucked last night...looked so good after the 1Q and then that 2Q was a disaster....

Don't have time for write-ups, but I really like Brooklyn and the Knicks today, and for the official play today I am going with:

Knicks 1st half -3.5.
$1100 to win $1000


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#9
Posted: 11/20/2012 8:09:44 PM
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#10
Posted: 11/20/2012 8:57:40 PM
missed itttttttt..........damn.....
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#11
Posted: 11/20/2012 8:58:44 PM
congrats bro...come back strong....
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#12
Posted: 11/20/2012 9:18:26 PM
Congrats bud much needed win, glad you hit it. Remember every winning streak starts with 1, time to rock'n roll buddy! 
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#13
Posted: 11/20/2012 9:58:52 PM
Nice win RussellK! Time to start another win streak. BOL
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#14
Posted: 11/20/2012 10:54:45 PM
Thanks guys....after that debacle by the Bears last night I was starting to doubt myself, but all it takes is 1 win to turn things around....

I'll be back tomorrow with write-ups and hopefully we can string together a couple of wins in a row....

Week 1: 4-1 +$2900   

Week 2: 0-3 -$3400   

Week 3: 1-1 -$200   
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#15
Posted: 11/21/2012 12:35:30 AM
BOL for tomorrow Russel....it;s a tough day for me as well !!! 
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#16
Posted: 11/21/2012 7:39:41 PM
Great win last night, and my lean on brooklyn was on as well......didn't have any time today for writeups, but the games I like the most are portland, golden state, and the official play:
Minny +3 (bought the hook, -120)
$1200 to win $1000
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#17
Posted: 11/21/2012 7:42:47 PM
BOL
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#18
Posted: 11/21/2012 7:51:45 PM
k love, pekovic, barrea all back in tonight. I liked minny until i found that out. i feel like rust and team chemistry might be off tonight
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#19
Posted: 11/21/2012 7:56:45 PM
Like the pick goodluck
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#20
Posted: 11/21/2012 7:58:26 PM
...
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#21
Posted: 11/21/2012 7:59:20 PM
fans
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#22
Posted: 11/21/2012 8:49:27 PM
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#23
Posted: 11/22/2012 3:38:36 PM
Wow.....that really sucked last night.....every sports bettor has, from time to time, had the feeling that the entire sports world is just a huge conspiracy whose sole purpose is to ensure that you lose.....and last night was one of those nights.....Minny up 14 at the half, with Love back and playing well, and they just completely fall apart in the 2nd half....just brutal   


No NBA tonight, but I do really like the Patriots tonight.....it seems too easy, when you think about where these 2 teams have been over the past month, and these usually don't work out.....but I really think New England's offense this year is the best it has been in a decade.....simply based on the fact that for the 1st time they have a legit run game, Ridley has been a beast all year and Woodhead has been a consistent weapon, especially on passing downs.....defenses simply cannot play to stop the pass as they have in years past, and although Brady's and Welker's numbers have been down, they continue to score at will.....Jets D is 3rd against the pass but 3rd last against the run......look for Belichek to try and establish the run early.....Pats have a below average defense, 3rd worst against the pass though a respectable 10th against the run.....it just looks to me that the discrepancy in talent, especially on the offensive end, should be enough to cover the spread, especially now that it has dropped to 6.5 so I can buy the hook and get 6...

New England -6 (-120)
$1200 to win $1000


Week 1: 4-1 +$2900   

Week 2: 0-3 -$3400   

Week 3: 1-2 -$1400    
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#24
Posted: 11/22/2012 3:58:56 PM
How do you feel at -7? Im debating.
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#25
Posted: 11/22/2012 5:11:55 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by RussellK:

Wow.....that really sucked last night.....every sports bettor has, from time to time, had the feeling that the entire sports world is just a huge conspiracy whose sole purpose is to ensure that you lose.....and last night was one of those nights.....Minny up 14 at the half, with Love back and playing well, and they just completely fall apart in the 2nd half....just brutal   


No NBA tonight, but I do really like the Patriots tonight.....it seems too easy, when you think about where these 2 teams have been over the past month, and these usually don't work out.....but I really think New England's offense this year is the best it has been in a decade.....simply based on the fact that for the 1st time they have a legit run game, Ridley has been a beast all year and Woodhead has been a consistent weapon, especially on passing downs.....defenses simply cannot play to stop the pass as they have in years past, and although Brady's and Welker's numbers have been down, they continue to score at will.....Jets D is 3rd against the pass but 3rd last against the run......look for Belichek to try and establish the run early.....Pats have a below average defense, 3rd worst against the pass though a respectable 10th against the run.....it just looks to me that the discrepancy in talent, especially on the offensive end, should be enough to cover the spread, especially now that it has dropped to 6.5 so I can buy the hook and get 6...

New England -6 (-120)
$1200 to win $1000


Week 1: 4-1 +$2900   

Week 2: 0-3 -$3400   

Week 3: 1-2 -$1400    

hi russell, well said. i was on ur side the same oat with u riding on the minny and they had collapsed in the 2nd half which digusted me....its so freaking garbage...i wud have hoped they lost in the regulation but having seen them lost badly in the 2nd half sucked badly....

lets hope for a better day today n the entire day for the whole covers forum was black due to heavy losses by almost all of the bettors...tahts what I see....

how confident are u with this NEP -6.5, my line is currently at -6.5 @1.77

any thoughts?
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