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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: NBA 2013 SEASON thread
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#1
Posted: 10/29/2012 9:36:57 PM
YTD: 0-0
Side: 0-0
Total: 0-0
Money Line: 0-0



Hi guys! I've been a long follower of the forum, and now I will do my best of sharing my thoughts about games too. I know a lot of good cappers around, I'd followed them from NBA to MLB to NFL to tennis to soccer, and they've been of great help to me. Now, I hope to return the favor and help others (myself mainly) too.


NBA will always be a tough sport to cap, because of several factors that we have no control of (ref calls, injuries, coach decisions of playtime, etc). But, at the end of the day, all we can hope for is to be on the right side of the game, and maybe that will be enough to get us the loot!

Onto the opening night!


CLEVELAND CAVALIERS -5 @1.92 for 2 UNITS
>>>>>Both teams are just about even in terms of firepower and talent. The main (and biggest) difference is about who the starting point guards will be. One team has a sophomore who has shown he can lead a team even with an average team, while the other team has it's pointguard sitting the bench due to injuries. Giving out the +5 is quite big for a Cavs team who has yet to prove anything, but the Wizards has proven nothing either! They traded (or lost) pretty much their entire starting line-up last year (Mgee, Young, Blatche, etc) and in return getting veterans (Ariza, Okafor, Nene, etc), but I don't think that will be enough to consider them better than they were. The Cavaliers, on the other hand, lost Antawn Jamison, but they will get Anderson Varejao back (injured almost entire season last year). They lost a bit of firepower, but at least they will get Mr. Hustle player again, and with their young core gaining more experience, I am confident that they will pull this one off. Most of all, I trust Kyrie Irving and his talent more than Jordan Crawford's.


BOSTON CELTICS MONEYLINE @3.25 for 1 UNIT
>>>>>They hate each other, that's not new to us all. And now that Ray Allen went to the dark side to be part of the most hated team in the league, it even made the rivalry between the teams more intensifying. Boston Celtics may have lost their lead SG, but Ray Allen had been subpar for at least 2 seasons now, and they get in return a rising one in Courtney Lee, and 6th man awardee Jason Terry. Rajon Rondo had become the best player of this team (after being overshadowed by the "Big 3" 2-3 years ago), and this year he will again try to lead the Celtics to success. Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett are getting old, but they still play hard just like everyone else. Miami Heat will get their well deserved ring, and their own Big3 has something to prove again, that their championship was not a fluke. I am banking on a possible let-down spot here from them, and will side with the team with revenge in their heads.


DALLAS/LA LAKERS UNDER 186 @1.91 for 1 UNIT
>>>>>No Dirk Nowitzki. No more Jason Terry, nor Jason Kidd. No Chris Kaman (at least tonight). Possibly no Kobe. No capable starting SG for LA (if Kobe is indeed out). Actually, my under play relies more on the Mavs' end rather than the Lakers, so even if Kobe plays, I will still bet the under. Dallas will most likely be forced to play halfcourt set most of the time, and who are they gonna go to? Collison? Marion? Brand? Mayo?!? The only way the Mavs can score (or at least reach 90) is to force TOs and convert into FB points. I have this game capped at around 180, probably a 95-81 Lakers victory.


BOL TO ALL OUR BETS!!! BEAT THE BOOKIES!!!!!
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#2
Posted: 10/29/2012 10:55:42 PM
Bol this season!
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#3
Posted: 10/29/2012 11:43:08 PM
GL!  Keep your thread going all season.  The write-ups on Covers are excellent educational tools.
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Posted: 10/30/2012 1:21:36 AM
alek
R_E
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Posted: 10/31/2012 2:38:59 AM
Not the best of starts today. I thought the Cavs win was a sign of good things to come, but damn Lakers forgot how to play defense.

Anyway, it's only the first day of the NBA. Lots of months to go, and we'll take it one play/game/day at a time.
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Posted: 10/31/2012 2:46:26 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ichiyuri:

Not the best of starts today. I thought the Cavs win was a sign of good things to come, but damn Lakers forgot how to play defense.

Anyway, it's only the first day of the NBA. Lots of months to go, and we'll take it one play/game/day at a time.
True, we're on the same standing now. It's like you're off to a good start then....BOOM
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Posted: 10/31/2012 8:36:04 AM
YTD 1-2 [-0.16 units]
Side: 1-0
Total: 0-1
Money Line: 0-1


*****Results yesterday:
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS -5 @1.92 for 2 UNITS (+1.84 UNITS)

BOSTON CELTICS MONEYLINE @3.25 for 1 UNIT  (-1 UNIT)
DALLAS/LA LAKERS UNDER 186 @1.91 for 1 UNIT (-1 UNIT)


Would've been 0-3, if not for late heroics by Kyrie Irving and the Cavs. That was a 2 unit play, so going 1-2 for the day isn't so bad. It's not what I expected as my first day though, so here's to hoping for a better NBA game day.



ROCKETS/PISTONS 190.5 OVER @1.92 for 2 UNITS

>>>>>This is more of a biased bet more than anything. I have been a Houston Rockets fan for more than 15 years, and I think this is only the 2nd time that I was excited with an acquisition (first one was with Tmac, but we all know how that ended). We (Rockets) will be playing with a couple play makers, both of which capable of slicing and dicing and passing. Detroit has their own version of playmakers, but they have 2 lowpost players that can also score. Neither team is known in playing good defense, so I am expecting an up-tempo high scoring game in this match.

TORONTO RAPTORS ML @2.07 for 2 UNITS

>>>>>Indiana Pacers just lost their starting PG, and Danny Granger is out indefinitely. They bring in another PG who played for the BOBCATS and expect him to be their court general? I don't think so. On the other hand, the Raptors will have Andrea Bargniani back (injured most of entire season), and brings in a spunky point guard in Kyle Lowry. DMDR is getting better and better and is learning to play complete SG than just being a regular showman (dunks). Jose Calderon is still there so this is a very potent Raptors team. I'll take them as home dogs at this time.

UTAH JAZZ -8.5 @1.91 for 1 UNIT

>>>>>I have no side bets between the Mavs/Lakers game earlier, so I am not as pissed as most of others. But, I am quite disappointed with the Lakers' defense more than anything. How can a team with no Dirk/Terry/Kidd drop 99 points on you? Anyhow, every season, there are quite few teams who are covering machines on back-to-back games. Dallas Mavs will be the first team this season to experience the b2b games, and I will fade them after they covered/won the first game.

LA CLIPPERS -3.5 @1.91 for 1 UNIT
>>>>>LA Clippers had a lot of acquisitions this past few months, and with that comes the chemistry issue. Even so, their duo of CP3 and Griff will still be the backbone of the team, and they have played the entire season already, so there's familiarity between the two. Add DJ and Butler and this team is still the same team that reached 2nd round last season. As for the Grizz, they are one of my favorite teams to bet because they are covering machines and because of depth. They lost OJ Mayo in the off season, and that just killed their bench prowess. They may have the 2nd best starting line-up in the west (the best being the Lakers), but their bench is not as potent as it was before. I'll take the Clippers in this 1st round rematch.

SAN ANTONIO SPURS -6.5 @1.91 for 1 UNIT
>>>>>The Spurs will be playing back-to-back as well, first is tonight then the Thunder tomorrow night. Some are thinking that they will take this game lightly and focus more on their rematch with KD and Co., but I don't think that's the case. SA had been a very good team during the early parts of every season, and relaxing on their first game is very unlikely for such a well-coached team. This will be a match between the old and the young, and tomorrow I expect the young ones to be taken to school badly by the best team (arguably) in the West.

SACRAMENTO KINGS ML @3.15 for 1 UNIT

>>>>>How are the Bulls going to score points without D. Rose? Some may say that they don't really need to score much points; because they can just keep the game low and slow, exerting more effort on defense than offense. That is total opposite of the Kings tactic, for they will want to push the ball a lot, take a bunch of 3pt shots, and put on a show. Usually, I take defense more than offense, but in the end, offense will have to do its share, and Bulls will still need to put points on the board. I don't think that's going to happen tonight.


BOL on all our bets!!!! Here's to hoping for a better day!!!
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Posted: 10/31/2012 8:23:08 PM
All bets are fighting well, hopefully most (if not all) gets the job done tonight.
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Posted: 10/31/2012 9:38:42 PM
Oh Raptors
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Posted: 10/31/2012 10:42:17 PM
Another miserable day.. Both ML's lost (or losing), Spurs not covering, and Jazz being outplayed. It's up to the Clippers now
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#11
Posted: 10/31/2012 10:51:42 PM
Jazz
Clipps

Let's go!
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#12
Posted: 10/31/2012 11:35:53 PM
Just made an in-running bet.

PORTLAND BLAZERS ML @1.85 for 1 UNIT

Let's go!!!

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Posted: 11/1/2012 12:45:03 AM
Another in-running bet.

LA CLIPPERS ML @1.70 for 1 UNIT


Need some serious 4th quarter from them, and a bit of collapse from the opposition.


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Posted: 11/1/2012 1:52:49 AM
That's a good ending considering Toronto shat the bed in the 4th. Onto tomorrow's only game, and it is going to be TNT THURSDAY, which in my dictionary, means opposite day!
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Posted: 11/1/2012 7:49:50 AM
YTD 6-5 [+1.05 units]
Side: 3-1
Total: 1-1
Money Line: 2-3




*****Results yesterday: 4-3 +1.21 UNITS*****

ROCKETS/PISTONS 190.5 OVER @1.92 for 2 UNITS (+1.84)
TORONTO RAPTORS ML @2.07 for 2 UNITS
(-2)
UTAH JAZZ -8.5 @1.91 for 1 UNIT (+0.91)

LA CLIPPERS -3.5 @1.91 for 1 UNIT (+0.91)

SAN ANTONIO SPURS -6.5 @1.91 for 1 UNIT (-1)
SACRAMENTO KINGS ML @3.15 for 1 UNIT (-1)

(in-running)PORTLAND BLAZERS ML @1.85 for 1 UNIT (+0.85)
(in-running)LA CLIPPERS ML @1.70 for 1 UNIT (+0.70)



That Raptors loss was really painful to swallow. Ahead by 10 with 4 minutes to go, the Raptors failed to deliver, in front of their home crowd! Even so, I still believe that Toronto is a good team (they are in the Eastern Conference), and this won't be the last time I will side with them. But, I may have to stop betting MLs on dogs this early. If I sided with Tor+2 and Sac+6.5, I would've had a 1-0-1 instead of 0-2-0.


*****TNT THURSDAY ALERT!!!!!*****
(This may sound ridiculous or unreasonable, but since 2 seasons ago, I had been using this tactic every TNT Thursday (postseason not included). I will fade the mass plays based on covers consensus. If many goes for team A, I go for team B. If many goes for over, I go under. I don't have the exact numbers, but I think I am on the plus side using this strategy, so why change it?)


SAN ANTONIO SPURS -2.5 @2.00 for 1 UNIT
THUNDER/SPURS 201 UNDER @1.91 for 1 UNIT

>>>>>I am not even gonna give any reasoning behind my 2 plays. All I'm gonna say is TNT THURSDAY and that's it. I will sit back and watch this rematch between the 2 best teams of the West LAST season.


BOL on all our bets!!!!
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Posted: 11/1/2012 8:43:46 AM
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Posted: 11/1/2012 8:38:31 PM
Consensus didn't change much for the past 10 hours or so.. Majority of covers still has OKC+ and over. I still feel confident about my plays here.
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#18
Posted: 11/1/2012 8:39:09 PM
Keep breaking the book!
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#19
Posted: 11/1/2012 10:58:08 PM
Looking good on both bets for sas and under backers so far.. This may turn out as covers massacre..
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#20
Posted: 11/1/2012 11:17:44 PM
That may be a turning point of the game. Spurs should've extended the lead to at least 12, but didn't then KD hit a 3.

Stop the momentum while early. Let's go Spurs!
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#21
Posted: 11/1/2012 11:26:20 PM
This is gonna be a close and sweaty 4th quarter
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#22
Posted: 11/2/2012 12:03:23 AM
Moosed again for the 2nd straight night pfff.
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#23
Posted: 11/2/2012 2:02:55 AM
YTD 7-6 [+0.96 units]
Side: 3-2
Total: 2-1
Money Line: 2-3
Parlay: 0-0


*****Results yesterday: 1-1  (-0.09 UNITS)*****



SAN ANTONIO SPURS -2.5 @2.00 for 1 UNIT (-1.00)
THUNDER/SPURS 201 UNDER @1.91 for 1 UNIT (+0.91)



That moose sucked big time yet again. Although I am quite happy that there wasn't a total massacre to the entire covers community who backed okc+ and over, I am still disappointed how the Spurs failed to cover the spread. They led most of the 2nd half, even had a 10pt lead at one point. In the end they need the heroics of TP to tie the game, and to win the game.

Onto tomorrow's games:

ROCKETS/HAWKS 201.5 OVER @1.93 for 2 UNITS

>>>>>Another homer bet from a Rockets fan. If that Pistons game was any indication that we will be running a lot this season, then this will be a very exciting one for all us Rockets fanatics. Hawks lost JJ last offseason, and got themselves a couple SGs that likes to shoot a lot. Louis Williams and Kyle Korver will help stretch the floor for this team, and with Teague running the point, lots of dribble-drive penetrations will occur, setting up open 3pt attempts for the campers. Rockets will continue doing that run-n-gun style, and even with JSmoove guarding the interior, the Hawks will have no one to defend either Lin or Harden, making it easy for these 2 to set teammates up.

BUCKS/CELTICS 197.5 UNDER @1.86 for 2 UNITS

>>>>>This is quite high even for a Celtics team who had major revamp in the offseason. They are still a very good defensive team, and C. Lee is an upgrade on SG compared to R. Allen. The Bucks will try their best to score transition points, and shoot lots of outside shots to drag KG or B. Bass out, which may work, but I don't think R. Rondo will get beat off the dribble by B. Jennings the entire time. Most of all, Heat's upgrade in offense is tremendous, that's why that game went wayyyyy beyond over. Bucks lost inside presence (A. Bogut) and also a capable shooter (C. Delfino) so I think they will have difficulties scoring.

JAZZ/HORNETS 188.5 UNDER @1.96 for 2 UNITS
>>>>>Utah is a different team when at home and on the road. At home, they are quite unbeatable, that even the best teams had difficulties beating them. But, on the road, they look normal, if not, a weak team. New Orleans had a good first game against the Spurs, almost beating them SU. They even dropped 95 on the Spurs, and that's quite an achievement considering the Thunder scored 84 against the Spurs earlier today! I expect the Hornets to struggle a bit, and G. Vasquez 13 assists will probably be cut to half because of the potent frontline by the Jazz.

PORTLAND BLAZERS +9 @1.91 for 1 UNIT
>>>>>This is all because the Thunder are playing back-to-back. They covered the +2.5 spread earlier today, and even if there's a revenge factor in their mindset, I still believe that it's very difficult to win both ATS in a back-to-back situation. I'll take the Blazers with the points.

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES ML + GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS ML @3.03 for 1 UNIT
>>>>>This will be my first parlay bet of the NBA season, and I am sticking with ML instead of the handicaps. Sac Kings did really well last time against the Bulls, but failed to capitalize without D. Rose. This will the Wolves' first game, and I think they are excited to show how good they will be with their new additions. Even without Love and Rubio, I believe they can still play against the bottom feeder teams. Question is, who will they go to? B. Roy? D. Williams?
>>>>>Memphis Grizzlies played great against the Clippers in their opener, but their weak bench was totally exposed by the opposing team. LA's top scorer that game was Jamal Crawford?!? That guy is a good scorer but had been awful in terms of shooting percentage, and the Grizz let him score almost 30 on them? Now they play a Warriors team who has thrived with shooting 3 pointers and jumpshots for what seemed like forever, and even if the Grizz backcourt is the best in terms of forcing TOs, I am banking on the fact that GSW will be focused tomorrow, especially their ace PG who had just signed a 40M deal. He gotta prove that he's worth all that dollars, and what better time to do it than tomorrow's game?


BOL on our bets!! I may have to include some in-running bets from time to time, but since only ML bets are available on my I/R bets, I won't be using that as much.


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#24
Posted: 11/2/2012 11:59:06 AM
I will be adding a couple totals bets for tonight's games.


PISTONS/SUNS 194 UNDER @1.89 for 1 UNIT
>>>>>I don't really see the Suns scoring a lot. Even with S. Nash at the helm last season, they weren't really as productive as they were 3-5 years ago. Their big men aren't really big time scorers, Dudley is definitely not a solid scorer, and Beasley is not a beast. Offense will revolve and rely solely on Dragic, and he will have to do almost everything for this team. The Pistons on the other hand, aren't as capable offensively either. While it is true that they reached 90+ last game against the Rockets, but the Rockets suck defensively. Suns is a pretty decent defensive team, so I expect a low scoring affair between these two.

NUGGETS/MAGIC 197.5 UNDER for 1 UNIT
>>>>>Denver, alongside Utah, is one of the teams that are really, really good at home, but is very ordinary when on the road. They hadn't been scoring as well as they did last year, maybe Iggy doesn't fit the offense at all? Gallo is questionable, and so who is the shooter left for this team? Andre Miller? We don't even have to discuss Magic's offensive ways, because they have a limited supply for points.

These 2 will be added to the earlier 5 (or 6, if you will count the parlay as 2 bets).

BOL everyone!!!
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#25
Posted: 11/2/2012 12:26:08 PM
GL with all
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