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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Nuggets +500 Series Price.
Mikado send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 5/9/2012 6:27:06 PM
Does anybody else see serious value in this price given that they are -1.5 faves in Game 6 at home.  They have played the better defense for the majority of the series, the problem is they have let the Lakers back into the game by not boxing out.  But last time when faced against elimination, despite Kobe's insane comeback performance and circus shot 3s.  George Karl really showed a lot of poise and demonstrated that he can outcoach Mike Brown.  A lot of people think Lakers will be practically a lock despite what has happened due to their history with the NBA, playoffs, Stern, referees, etc.  One thing I know is that in Game 7, the refs will let these guys play their hardest and wont call chippy BS that will send Kobe to the line 10+ times.  It will be a game a lot like Game 4 where it came down to the wire.  If Javale McGee and Kenneth Faried continue to step up in the paint, I really do think they have a decent (better than +500, more like +300) shot at winning this.  

Anybody else see things this way and like the value?
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#2
Posted: 5/9/2012 6:38:45 PM

   Your post probably wouldn't even be here if one of those last two shots had fallen. Denver barely escaped after blowing a nice lead.

 Lakers losing 3 in a row? Just can't see it at those odds but good luck.

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#3
Posted: 5/9/2012 6:45:29 PM
No. Artest will be back in game 7 also.
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#4
Posted: 5/9/2012 6:54:58 PM
Go for it why not
Posted using a mobile device.
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#5
Posted: 5/9/2012 7:05:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by The-iLLuminati:

Go for it why not


he lose money, that's why not
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#6
Posted: 5/9/2012 7:07:58 PM
DEN needs 2 in a row. One of which is at home.
It is possible.

It is odd to see Kobe not getting the calls he used to. Just odd!


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th9nip
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#7
Posted: 5/9/2012 7:10:35 PM
bet and hedge game 7 if they win
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#8
Posted: 5/9/2012 7:13:15 PM
where have you been mikado?
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#9
Posted: 5/9/2012 7:28:58 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by DaddysHome:

No. Artest will be back in game 7 also.

 Good point. Forgot about his return.

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#10
Posted: 5/9/2012 7:30:58 PM
I'm a huge Laker fan.  The Lakers have the ability to lay an egg at absolutely any time.  Not saying to do it, but just that if it happened I wouldn't be amazed.

Also, bet and hedge as another poster said.
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#11
Posted: 5/9/2012 7:34:46 PM
artest coming back is a plus for denver, i know he plays d, but isnt a plus to the team
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ac_bum
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#12
Posted: 5/9/2012 7:57:37 PM
 got damm i thought you hit the lottery and vanished into thin air
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#13
Posted: 5/9/2012 8:12:36 PM
lol at ur avi 
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Mikado send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#14
Posted: 5/9/2012 11:35:57 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mischkin04:

   Your post probably wouldn't even be here if one of those last two shots had fallen. Denver barely escaped after blowing a nice lead.

 Lakers losing 3 in a row? Just can't see it at those odds but good luck.


If Nugs closed out Game 4 when it was ties at 86 then this series could easily be 3-2 Nuggets leading.

Since the first 6 quarters of the series, the Nuggets have outscored the Lakers 338-304.  There is solid evidence in their numbers and their play that they can do this.  Not likely for sure, but I do not think they should be getting +500.  

The key for the Nuggets beating the Lakers isn't containing Kobe, he is going to get his regardless.  It is boxing guys like Gasol and Bynum out to keep them from getting 2nd chance shots.  Faried and McGee have proven they can take on this task, it is just a matter of finishing the defense.  There have been so many times the Nuggets have played great defense against the Lakers to where the ball was blocked or about to be turned over that somehow LA found ways to get the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th chance opportunities.

When faced against elimination the Nuggets responded last game.  However some people see them giving up that 15 pt lead with 6 mins to go as a statement as to how immature they can be.  I just want people to flash back last year to Game 5 in the Nuggets series vs the Thunder when the exact same thing happened, only the Nuggets collapsed and lost that series based on Durant's insane play.  Last night the same thing happened, but what a difference a year makes into keeping their composure.  Attribute that all to coach Karl and keeping the players focused when LA (particularly Kobe) could not miss and were making all the shots they needed to come back.  

This series has been based on runs because they two teams play such opposing styles of basketball.  It is not unusual to see a 20-4 run happen only to see a 16-2 run happen minutes later the other way.  

One thing I do think is going to happen is the fatigue and energy levels of the Lakers are going to become more pronounced the more this series draws on.  Many people can argue Artest will be the gamechanger in Game 7.  But can anybody show me a game from the past few months where Artest has been somewhat relevant towards obtaining that win?
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#15
Posted: 5/9/2012 11:38:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by th9nip:

bet and hedge game 7 if they win

Why not just bet on them to win game 6?? Lol
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#16
Posted: 5/10/2012 12:10:48 AM
Bet and hedge on a Game 7?  That sounds like a terrible idea.  I don't hedge anything anymore.  It is usually pointless and a waste of your time to even think about.  

Theoretically if I took Nugs +500 and they won Game 6, they will likely be at least +200 in Game 7.  Why would I lay -300 or so on the Lakers to hedge?  I can understand how you think there is a small window of profitability here, but even if I was playing in the $10,000 range, I wouldn't stand to gain very much off this.  Just let it ride.  
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#17
Posted: 5/10/2012 12:16:18 AM
One time I hedged on a late game a 8 team parlay in NBA, if I hadn't of hedged the 8 teamer it would've been good and I would have stand of gained a lot more. However I felt at that time I should guarantee myself money.  After the sorrows and losses of all my gambling experiences.  I find it best not even to play 8 teamers anymore for one, but if you really want to be successful - you need to get the idea out of your head that hedging can be a good idea.  99% of the time, it isn't.  The only other 1% of the time is in BS 8 teamers or whatever that you probably had no business playing to begin with.  
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#18
Posted: 5/10/2012 12:33:32 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gomburzago:

where have you been mikado?

Been working on my Ph.D.  It's been a ton a work and I have not had much free time to come here and post my plays.  
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Mikado send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#19
Posted: 5/10/2012 12:39:35 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ac_bum:

 got damm i thought you hit the lottery and vanished into thin air

I moved to Colorado... about the equivalent of hitting a nice scratcher.  lol.  

No, I love it here.  Just been super busy with work and school.  Hopefully in another year or two I might have a job with the Nuggets as a sport psychologist (haha, I wish, but I have been very persistent with them).  But in all seriousness I am finally at the point where I can actually work with people and build up my resume.  So I am looking forward to what the future holds.  

Good to hear from you.  

Best of luck to you in the playoffs!
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#20
Posted: 5/10/2012 2:38:40 AM
Study hard, cap hard, play hard 
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#21
Posted: 5/10/2012 2:49:37 AM
No value, I don't see Nuggets winning another game, much less 2 in a row and a game 7 in LA, (Home teams win game 7s 80% of the time). Bynum should show up in one of these games instead of letting McGee practice for the dunk contest the entire game, and yes Metta is back for game 7, though he sucks on offense he is better than the dude they been starting, and more size for LA is bad for Nuggets.
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#22
Posted: 5/10/2012 2:53:57 AM
The Nuggets will win game 6 and 7. So it is written. So shall it be. BANK!
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Mikado send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#23
Posted: 5/10/2012 3:26:27 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Degen55:

No value, I don't see Nuggets winning another game, much less 2 in a row and a game 7 in LA, (Home teams win game 7s 80% of the time). Bynum should show up in one of these games instead of letting McGee practice for the dunk contest the entire game, and yes Metta is back for game 7, though he sucks on offense he is better than the dude they been starting, and more size for LA is bad for Nuggets.

Where should it be +1000 you think?

If you throw out statistics and just look at the way these two have played the past two games.  Can you really tell me that LA was the better team during most those 96 minutes?  Nuggets have gone on larger and bigger runs this series.  And if what shows with Bynum and Gasol is true that they are getting gassed, they could lose the battle of the paint (which the series really comes down to - not Kobe).  Fatigue will be a serious concern in Game 6 with the altitude. 


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#24
Posted: 5/10/2012 3:33:29 AM

ATL +6.5 has much better value in my opinion. LA/DEN game is like a pick game with a whole lot of advantages and disadvantages for both teams as well as mismatches off the bench.

 

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mischkin04 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#25
Posted: 5/10/2012 9:27:26 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Mikado:


If Nugs closed out Game 4 when it was ties at 86 then this series could easily be 3-2 Nuggets leading.

Since the first 6 quarters of the series, the Nuggets have outscored the Lakers 338-304.  There is solid evidence in their numbers and their play that they can do this.  Not likely for sure, but I do not think they should be getting +500.  

The key for the Nuggets beating the Lakers isn't containing Kobe, he is going to get his regardless.  It is boxing guys like Gasol and Bynum out to keep them from getting 2nd chance shots.  Faried and McGee have proven they can take on this task, it is just a matter of finishing the defense.  There have been so many times the Nuggets have played great defense against the Lakers to where the ball was blocked or about to be turned over that somehow LA found ways to get the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th chance opportunities.

When faced against elimination the Nuggets responded last game.  However some people see them giving up that 15 pt lead with 6 mins to go as a statement as to how immature they can be.  I just want people to flash back last year to Game 5 in the Nuggets series vs the Thunder when the exact same thing happened, only the Nuggets collapsed and lost that series based on Durant's insane play.  Last night the same thing happened, but what a difference a year makes into keeping their composure.  Attribute that all to coach Karl and keeping the players focused when LA (particularly Kobe) could not miss and were making all the shots they needed to come back.  

This series has been based on runs because they two teams play such opposing styles of basketball.  It is not unusual to see a 20-4 run happen only to see a 16-2 run happen minutes later the other way.  

One thing I do think is going to happen is the fatigue and energy levels of the Lakers are going to become more pronounced the more this series draws on.  Many people can argue Artest will be the gamechanger in Game 7.  But can anybody show me a game from the past few months where Artest has been somewhat relevant towards obtaining that win?

 That's just it, they didn't close out game 4 at home. Realistically, thier backs were to the wall and needed that win to avoid a 3-1 deficit from which very few have overcome.

 You make some solid points about thier scoring and big men doing the job on D. Yes, they did enough to fend off a scoring surge by the Lakers, but mentally must be thinking about this near collapse after having the game in hand. If it had gone to OT, I doubt the Nugs would've had the confidence to stay alive.

 Artest may not be the absolute key to a victory, but he is a well rested addition to what could be a somewhat drained team at home in game 7 should it be neccesary. I can see relevance in having a fresh set of legs and a player returning who is out to redeem himself after an extended absence.

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