Playoff basketball brings the the table sudden-death basketball, which is a scenario perfect for the manifestation of Under results - tight players executing deliberate plays isn't the ground upon which liberal scoring is made.
*An elimination game is when at least 1 team faces an end to their post season should they lose the game concerned straight-up.
--------------------------------------------------------------------- All results based on opening lines.
Since keeping records starting with the 03-04 post season, the stats I've accumulated for all Elimination games total results are as follows:
Overall
All Elimination Games: U/O 90-57-4
Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O 37-33-2 Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 53-24-2
1st Round of playoffs
All Elimination Games: U/O 47-31-2
Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O 26-18-1 Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 21-13-1
2nd Round & onwards of playoffs
All Elimination Games: U/O 43-26-2
Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O 11-15-1 Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 32-11-1
Clearly the prime spots to take Unders are in a game 6 or 7, especially one taking place during the 2nd round or beyond (a .250 losing %), when both teams have a series win under their belts and are both winners of at least 2 games in the current series.
The one team to prove the exception (whose results I haven't incl. in the above figures) is - no suprise - Phoenix....
Phoenix Suns
Elimination games they win SU: U/O 2-8 Elimination games they lose SU: U/O 4-2
For Phoenix it doesnt matter the nature of the game (4, 5, 6 or 7) they're playing in, or the Round they're playing it in, in relation to the final total result: it's down to their SU performance.
---------------------------------------------------------------------- The results below will only be integrated with the results noted above at the end of the current post season.
Playoff basketball brings the the table sudden-death basketball, which is a scenario perfect for the manifestation of Under results - tight players executing deliberate plays isn't the ground upon which liberal scoring is made.
*An elimination game is when at least 1 team faces an end to their post season should they lose the game concerned straight-up.
--------------------------------------------------------------------- All results based on opening lines.
Since keeping records starting with the 03-04 post season, the stats I've accumulated for all Elimination games total results are as follows:
Overall
All Elimination Games: U/O 90-57-4
Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O 37-33-2 Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 53-24-2
1st Round of playoffs
All Elimination Games: U/O 47-31-2
Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O 26-18-1 Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 21-13-1
2nd Round & onwards of playoffs
All Elimination Games: U/O 43-26-2
Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O 11-15-1 Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 32-11-1
Clearly the prime spots to take Unders are in a game 6 or 7, especially one taking place during the 2nd round or beyond (a .250 losing %), when both teams have a series win under their belts and are both winners of at least 2 games in the current series.
The one team to prove the exception (whose results I haven't incl. in the above figures) is - no suprise - Phoenix....
Phoenix Suns
Elimination games they win SU: U/O 2-8 Elimination games they lose SU: U/O 4-2
For Phoenix it doesnt matter the nature of the game (4, 5, 6 or 7) they're playing in, or the Round they're playing it in, in relation to the final total result: it's down to their SU performance.
---------------------------------------------------------------------- The results below will only be integrated with the results noted above at the end of the current post season.
OKC @DAL - Game 4: Over MIA @NYK - Game 4: Under SAS @UTH - Game 4: Under ORL @IND - Game 5: Over BOS @ATL - Game 5: Under PHI @CHC - Game 5: Under DEN @LAK - Game 5: Over NYK @MIA - Game 5: Over LAC @MEM - Game 5: Under ATL @BOS - Game 6: Under LAK @DEN - Game 6: Over CHC @PHI - Game 6: Under MEM @LAC - Game 6: Under DEN @LAK - Game 7: LAC @MEM - Game 7:
OKC @DAL - Game 4: Over MIA @NYK - Game 4: Under SAS @UTH - Game 4: Under ORL @IND - Game 5: Over BOS @ATL - Game 5: Under PHI @CHC - Game 5: Under DEN @LAK - Game 5: Over NYK @MIA - Game 5: Over LAC @MEM - Game 5: Under ATL @BOS - Game 6: Under LAK @DEN - Game 6: Over CHC @PHI - Game 6: Under MEM @LAC - Game 6: Under DEN @LAK - Game 7: LAC @MEM - Game 7:
Games 6s & 7s is where it's at, and we're not even at the 2nd round stage yet..
That said, it wouldn't suprise me to see the Mem/Clips Game 7 to go Over (I'm not prepared to make a large/long post giving my reasons, but they're there). I'm not saying don't bet it if you like it, I'm just saying I don't think it's worth getting carried away with all these other game 6 & 7 unders, and so go overboard with your staking.
Games 6s & 7s is where it's at, and we're not even at the 2nd round stage yet..
That said, it wouldn't suprise me to see the Mem/Clips Game 7 to go Over (I'm not prepared to make a large/long post giving my reasons, but they're there). I'm not saying don't bet it if you like it, I'm just saying I don't think it's worth getting carried away with all these other game 6 & 7 unders, and so go overboard with your staking.
I don't (usually) advocate making a play solely based on 1 factor/trend/angle. It's not for me to do your legwork re the other factors feeding into the Mia/Ind game 6 total, but one aspect I don't like is that series started out blanket Unders (1st 3 games) and has since turned into blanket Overs (last 2 games). That says to me they took their time sorting out how to attack the opposing team, and once they did, haven't failed to stop doing it successfully. I don't think they'll be breaking 100 pts on each other, but then with the total set at barely above 180, they don't have to to manage an Over result. Also as far as recent history goes, Indy has managed to score more at home than away, vs Miami (in this series they've not scored less than 90 at home, and not topped 90 away). Looking for a low/er scoring game between these 2, would seem to suit Miami as the more likely venue.
I don't (usually) advocate making a play solely based on 1 factor/trend/angle. It's not for me to do your legwork re the other factors feeding into the Mia/Ind game 6 total, but one aspect I don't like is that series started out blanket Unders (1st 3 games) and has since turned into blanket Overs (last 2 games). That says to me they took their time sorting out how to attack the opposing team, and once they did, haven't failed to stop doing it successfully. I don't think they'll be breaking 100 pts on each other, but then with the total set at barely above 180, they don't have to to manage an Over result. Also as far as recent history goes, Indy has managed to score more at home than away, vs Miami (in this series they've not scored less than 90 at home, and not topped 90 away). Looking for a low/er scoring game between these 2, would seem to suit Miami as the more likely venue.
good info, excellent thread. I appreciate it. Indiana as you have pointed out is a different team offensively at home. I'll look for your posts in the future Betcrimes as this one demonstrates you know your shit.
good info, excellent thread. I appreciate it. Indiana as you have pointed out is a different team offensively at home. I'll look for your posts in the future Betcrimes as this one demonstrates you know your shit.
lol, LTNS for sure, bro. Still hanging round the other joint, but not betting near as much these days (basically only when I'm targeting something specific to buy, that i don't want to dip into the ole 'nest egg' for)
lol, LTNS for sure, bro. Still hanging round the other joint, but not betting near as much these days (basically only when I'm targeting something specific to buy, that i don't want to dip into the ole 'nest egg' for)
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