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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Prop play of the Day: Carmelo Anthony Over 28.5 pts -130
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#1
Posted: 5/3/2012 2:13:31 PM

Prop record: 7-2

Carmelo Anthony Over 28.5 pts  -130

There is only one way that the Knicks win tonight and that is if Carmelo goes off tonight.  I would like this play with Amare playing but I LOVE this play with him out.  Amare being out will cause Carmelo to play the 4 spot which will give more minutes to their guards on the bench which will open up the floor for Melo.  It will also allow Melo to play around the basket more which should turn get him a few more FT attempts (I'm guessing 12-15 FTs for Melo tonight).  Novak and Smith are deadly shooters and Miami defenders will not be able to venture too far away from them.  Amare just adds another unneeded body in the paint when it comes to Melo scoring.

I looked at the stretch of 13 games from March 26- April 18 when Amare sat out and the Knicks went on their run and here are a couple of key figures that I found that point to a Melo point explosion tonight:

-Melo averaged 30.6 pts a game during this stretch on 51% shooting while playing 36 minutes per game

-Melo averaged 20.66 pts a game on 40% shooting over the other 41 games he played.  (He sat out 11 and I excluded a game where he only played for 6 minutes.)

As you can see this is a noticeable difference.  Melo should see anywhere from 42-45 minutes in tonight's game, as long as the Knicks stay competitive, which is 6-9 minutes more than above average.

I think the game on April 15th where the Heat played the Knicks in the garden is a good game to look at since Amare was out and the Knicks were at home.

Melo played 43 minutes in this game and scored 42 points.  He shot 52% from the field and was 2-7 from 3 along with 12-15 from FT.  So he shot well but it's not like he played absolutly out of his mind or anything.

 

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#2
Posted: 5/3/2012 2:14:43 PM
hey man what do you think about LEbron over 6.5 free throws?
Or wade over 4.5?  Both are juicy at -140 but wow this number shocks me
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Posted: 5/3/2012 2:16:18 PM

I would also be on the Melo rebounds prop today, as long as it is 7.5 or less, but my book is really slacking on props today for some reason.  They only have 3 plays up for the Knicks game and zero prop plays available for Miami players. 

 

I will probably also make a play on either the game total or the Knicks team total of 90.5.  I think that Smith and Novak combine for atleast 6 3's tonight.

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#4
Posted: 5/3/2012 2:17:23 PM
You know he's gonna get at least 20 shots today from the field you have to figure, right? If he shoots 40% and gets to the line maybe 6-7 times you should be able to hit this thing for sure
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#5
Posted: 5/3/2012 2:19:49 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

You know he's gonna get at least 20 shots today from the field you have to figure, right? If he shoots 40% and gets to the line maybe 6-7 times you should be able to hit this thing for sure

Atleast 20 but probably more.  He had 26 attempts in game 2.

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Posted: 5/3/2012 2:20:57 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Roonie:

hey man what do you think about LEbron over 6.5 free throws?
Or wade over 4.5?  Both are juicy at -140 but wow this number shocks me

 

My book doesn't offer FT props so I haven't ever looked in to them but those numbers do seem to be low.  Do you know what the lines were for these props in Game 1 and 2?  Are they lower specifically for this game or is that the same numbers from game 1 and 2?

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#7
Posted: 5/3/2012 2:23:06 PM

My books are not offering me that Prop Play, I was waiting all day for the Prop bets to be released so I could grab the Over on the Melo points and they did not offer it..

The best I can get is that Melo will make over 6.5 Free Throws, which I still think is a good bet  because of how many times he can get to the Line...

BOL on your Play...

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Posted: 5/3/2012 2:25:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Roonie:

hey man what do you think about LEbron over 6.5 free throws?
Or wade over 4.5?  Both are juicy at -140 but wow this number shocks me

I just realized from Port's post that this is made FT's and not attempts.  Melo at 6.5 sounds like a winner.  I like that more than a James or Wade FT prop tonight.

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#9
Posted: 5/3/2012 2:25:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by FlamingoBarnes:

 

My book doesn't offer FT props so I haven't ever looked in to them but those numbers do seem to be low.  Do you know what the lines were for these props in Game 1 and 2?  Are they lower specifically for this game or is that the same numbers from game 1 and 2?


no idea man, didn't catch the prop bets in game 1 and 2.  I already locked it in I know it might be a square bet, but 1-1 and I lose $40.  And I don't see both of these guys going under the number.  GL to you

Wager
Sort By Time Placed
Risk Win 
 #53784 - MIA/SFO 1st Inn 0-0 pk (-145)$290.00$200.00
 #32509 - LeBron James/FTs made o6½ (-140)$140.00$100.00
 #32517 - Dwyane Wade/FTs made o4½ (-140)$140.00$100.00
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Posted: 5/3/2012 2:25:57 PM
Port
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#11
Posted: 5/3/2012 2:35:40 PM
Carmelo over any number they want to put up whenever Amare is out. The bigger the game the more points I expect. I'm still waiting on my book to put up a line for it but will be max betting the over.
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#12
Posted: 5/3/2012 2:36:45 PM
where can i find free throws?
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#13
Posted: 5/3/2012 2:43:47 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by FlamingoBarnes:

Port

We will bought Cash Tonight..

Melo will score 34 to 40 Points, and hit at least 12 or more Free Throws in doing so...

He is going to get back to being Agressive like he was before A'mare came back...

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#14
Posted: 5/3/2012 2:48:37 PM
Hmmm... safer to play the OVER 28.5 points at -140 or the OVER total points, rebounds, and assists of 40.5 at -130?


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#15
Posted: 5/3/2012 2:53:08 PM

WADE 4.5. THAT SOUNDS TEMPTING

 

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#16
Posted: 5/3/2012 2:58:53 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

Hmmm... safer to play the OVER 28.5 points at -140 or the OVER total points, rebounds, and assists of 40.5 at -130?


I love the Over on Points...

But the Total on Points, Assists & Rebounds at -130 Sounds good too..

Here are Melo's Stat lines so far in the 1st 2 games, take into mind he was sharing the floor with A'mare so he will be way more involved in the over all numbers in this game..

Apr 30 @ MIA1 L 94 - 104 45 12 - 26 0 - 3 6 - 9 1 8 9 1 1 0 3 5 30
Apr 28 @ MIA1 L 67 - 100 34 3 - 15 0 - 2 5 - 5 6 4 10 3 1 0 4 3 11

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#17
Posted: 5/3/2012 3:00:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by UPNTHAPORT:

I love the Over on Points...

But the Total on Points, Assists & Rebounds at -130 Sounds good too..

Here are Melo's Stat lines so far in the 1st 2 games, take into mind he was sharing the floor with A'mare so he will be way more involved in the over all numbers in this game..

Apr 30 @ MIA1 L 94 - 104 45 12 - 26 0 - 3 6 - 9 1 8 9 1 1 0 3 5 30
Apr 28 @ MIA1 L 67 - 100 34 3 - 15 0 - 2 5 - 5 6 4 10 3 1 0 4 3 11

Last Three Games
Date Opponent Result MIN FGM-A 3PM-A FTM-A OFF DEF REB AST STL BLK TO PF PTS
Playoffs
Apr 30 @ MIA1 L 94 - 104 45 12 - 26 0 - 3 6 - 9 1 8 9 1 1 0 3 5 30
Apr 28 @ MIA1 L 67 - 100 34 3 - 15 0 - 2 5 - 5 6 4 10 3 1 0 4 3 11
Season

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#18
Posted: 5/3/2012 3:03:51 PM
UPNTHAPORT -> what's your book?
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Posted: 5/3/2012 3:12:17 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

Hmmm... safer to play the OVER 28.5 points at -140 or the OVER total points, rebounds, and assists of 40.5 at -130?


 

That's a tough call.  If I had to guess I would say that Melo's combined rebounds and assists should be around 15 tonight which would knock the scoring down to 26 pts.  Idk if knocking the points needed down by 3 is worth taking on two additional variables though. 

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Posted: 5/3/2012 3:13:57 PM

Port, those assist numbers should increase since role players generally shoot better at home.

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#21
Posted: 5/3/2012 3:14:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by FlamingoBarnes:

I think the game on April 15th where the Heat played the Knicks in the garden is a good game to look at since Amare was out and the Knicks were at home.

Melo played 43 minutes in this game and scored 42 points.  He shot 52% from the field and was 2-7 from 3 along with 12-15 from FT.  So he shot well but it's not like he played absolutly out of his mind or anything.

 



First, thank you for the write ups.  GL to you tonight. 
I've watched the April 15th game and do agree that Melo's # does go up when Amare is out.  But there is one thing that I'm worried about, and that is Miami's defense. 
Miami had great defense during regular season but from Game 1 and 2 it was very clear Miami had turn up a notch on their defense. 
So what effect would the higher defense Miami team on Melo's scoring? 
I am wondering if this was all part of Miami's tatics for this season.  Give 80% on defense during regular season and 110% during the playoffs. 
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Posted: 5/3/2012 3:22:56 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by wil168:



First, thank you for the write ups.  GL to you tonight. 
I've watched the April 15th game and do agree that Melo's # does go up when Amare is out.  But there is one thing that I'm worried about, and that is Miami's defense. 
Miami had great defense during regular season but from Game 1 and 2 it was very clear Miami had turn up a notch on their defense. 
So what effect would the higher defense Miami team on Melo's scoring? 
I am wondering if this was all part of Miami's tatics for this season.  Give 80% on defense during regular season and 110% during the playoffs. 

 

Melo scored 30 in game 2 when Amare was on the floor and clogging up the lane. He should be able to get 30 without Amare and at home if he can get it on the road and with Amare.  A key factor will be if Novak and Smith can hit a couple of early 3's and really get the attention of Miami's defenders which will give Melo's mid range game free reign.

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#23
Posted: 5/3/2012 3:29:37 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by FlamingoBarnes:

Port, those assist numbers should increase since role players generally shoot better at home.

I agree 100%...

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#24
Posted: 5/3/2012 3:41:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by FlamingoBarnes:

 Melo scored 30 in game 2 when Amare was on the floor and clogging up the lane. He should be able to get 30 without Amare and at home if he can get it on the road and with Amare.  A key factor will be if Novak and Smith can hit a couple of early 3's and really get the attention of Miami's defenders which will give Melo's mid range game free reign.



Yes, you go my vote.  I totally forgot about that angle. 
My book offered all props except for Melo's props. 
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#25
Posted: 5/3/2012 3:41:53 PM
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