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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: FUTURE - Los Angeles Clippers vs. Memphis Grizzlies
si1ly send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 4/29/2012 4:19:09 PM
'10-11 NBA:  90-67  (57.3%)  +19.90u
'10-11 NBA-P:  30-16  (65.2%)  +18.25u
'10-11 NCAAB:  8-1  (88.9%)  +7.90u
'10-11 NHL-P:  11-4  (73.3%)  +7.00u
'10-11 MLB:  97-66  (59.8%)  +31.61u
'10-11 MLB-P:  9-3  (75.0%)  +9.22u
'11-12 NCAAF:  16-21  (43.2%)  -7.40u
'11-12 NCAAF-P:  9-6  (60.0%)  +1.65u
'11-12 NFL:  42-35-1  (54.5%)  +5.05u
'11-12 NFL-P:  5-5  (50.0%)  -0.40u
'11-12 NCAAB:  9-3  (75.0%)  +5.70u
'11-12 NCAAB-P:  5-3  (62.5%)  +1.60u
'11-12 NBA:  77-80 (49.0%)  -13.28u

'11-12 NBA-P:  0-2 (00.0%)  -2.20u


FUTURE - Los Angeles Clippers to win series (+175)

This is strictly a value bet on the better team with the best player on the court.  The Clippers are statistically better than the Grizzlies as I have them projected at +1.31 ppg in this series.  This number is derived using my power rankings system which ranks the Clippers #9 and Memphis #13 out of the 16 teams in the playoffs.  The Clippers also have the best player on the court in Chris Paul.  He may be coming back from an injury, but his injury is nothing serious like what Derek Rose has been dealing with and if he says he's good to go, than that's good enough for me.  His net +/- PER rating of +13.4 this season puts him in an elite category of superstars - nobody on Memphis comes even close to this number.  So why is Memphis almost a 2-1 favorite to win this series?  Well obviously they have home court advantage.  The public also remembers that this Memphis team knocked off the Spurs in the first round as an 8 seed last year.  With Zach Randolph also back in the line-up, the public was quick to get on the Grizzly bandwagon.  I'm not buying into it.  The Clippers are a bad draw for Memphis.  Memphis is a slightly above average defensive team, but they rely on turnovers and getting into a transition game to beat their opponents.  Well the Clippers can frustrate both of these strengths.  They're ranked #2 in ball security and they prefer to run a slow methodical half court offense (ranked #23 in pace).  Setting this series line at +175/-195 suggests the Memphis has a 66.1% chance to win this series.  Here's where the value comes into play.  Given the Clippers advantages in pure statistics and offensive style I think this series is much closer to a 50/50 toss up than the Vegas line suggests.  I said in my write-up that I'd cautiously side with the home team, but after further analysis I believe the Clippers can grab a road win after all.  I'm a value investor, and this Clipper line is the epitome of that principle; gotta take it.
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#2
Posted: 4/29/2012 4:19:30 PM
#5 Los Angeles Clippers vs. #4 Memphis Grizzlies.pdf
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#3
Posted: 4/29/2012 6:09:23 PM
I took the Clippers to win 4-2. I figure if they are going to winitwill be at home. The Payout is +500 
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#4
Posted: 4/29/2012 6:11:41 PM
Value's on the Clippers now after the sharps pounded the opening number, but the Grizzlies are deserving favorites...just not 2-1.
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#5
Posted: 4/29/2012 6:14:13 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by eyemtlaw:

I took the Clippers to win 4-2. I figure if they are going to winitwill be at home. The Payout is +500 

Agreed.  Game 7's go to the home team more than 70% of the time in the NBA.  I think LAC can sweep their home games and that just leaves 1/3 to win on the road.  At +500, you've got a tasty bet.  My local doesn't offer exact series results otherwise I would have taken a look at this one myself.  Good luck!
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#6
Posted: 4/29/2012 6:39:29 PM
lets go clips! got them too
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#7
Posted: 4/29/2012 9:22:47 PM
No action on this game until halftime maybe.  I've got the total projected way higher than the line Vegas came out with.  So much higher in fact that it's throwing up a red flag.  Maybe they know something I don't?  In fact, I'm sure they do.  Either way, let's go Clippers!
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#8
Posted: 4/29/2012 9:38:47 PM
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#9
Posted: 4/29/2012 9:44:02 PM

yeah, i don't trust LAC, but when they come home, def take LAC esp their 1st home game. no play can be wise for this game, always GL

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#10
Posted: 4/29/2012 10:59:57 PM
wrong on all counts.
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#11
Posted: 4/29/2012 11:11:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by redbook1:

wrong on all counts.

Did I say the Clippers would sweep the series?  No.  I said they would win the series.  We're halfway through the first game.  I'm a long way from being wrong on all counts.
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#12
Posted: 4/29/2012 11:34:00 PM
this game is a mere inkling of what faces the clippers in this series.
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#13
Posted: 4/29/2012 11:39:32 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:


Did I say the Clippers would sweep the series?  No.  I said they would win the series.  We're halfway through the first game.  I'm a long way from being wrong on all counts.

This series is over.  You're kidding yourself if you think different.
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#14
Posted: 4/29/2012 11:41:23 PM

seriously man

i know my grizzlies

 

they will win this series, no way clippers beat us

 

we whipped a much better spurs squad in round one when we didnt have Home court advantage. 

BUY OUT NOW....... ive seen you on here past years....... i want you to win!!!!!

take grizz to win the series for double what you bet Clippers for.......... do it unless you dont like money

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#15
Posted: 4/29/2012 11:51:14 PM
this ain't real estate--no such thing as value in sports betting futures.
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#16
Posted: 4/29/2012 11:56:45 PM
Los Angeles Clippers to win series
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#17
Posted: 4/30/2012 12:08:12 AM
I don't know why so many of you are already considering this series in the books.  It's a 7 game series and this is game 1.  The Clippers are only down 6 with a few minutes to go despite Memphis shooting 11/16 from beyond the arc.  I never said the Clippers would sweep.  In fact I said in my write-up that this is the most evenly matched series in the first round of the playoffs and I expect it to go the distance.  A lot of you are going to sound pretty silly if the Clippers end up taking this series.
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#18
Posted: 4/30/2012 12:09:20 AM
Heck, a lot of you are going to sound pretty silly if the Clippers can take this game!  3 point game.  With 1:47 to play.
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#19
Posted: 4/30/2012 12:18:20 AM
Even if the clips take this one, i still think the Grizz take the series. Grizz just got comfortable abd once you get comfortable its tough to go back to 100% if you need to
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#20
Posted: 4/30/2012 12:19:17 AM
Where amazing happens.
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#21
Posted: 4/30/2012 12:20:58 AM
I will say that blake looked a lot better in the second half than i expected. If griffin can play like that consistently throughout the series then they do have a chance
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#22
Posted: 4/30/2012 12:21:03 AM



Threads like this are why I love covers.
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#23
Posted: 4/30/2012 12:21:21 AM
But i dont see him gettin it done
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#24
Posted: 4/30/2012 12:21:59 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by redbook1:

this game is a mere inkling of what faces the clippers in this series.

Is it now?
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#25
Posted: 4/30/2012 12:23:42 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by rangerz2478:




Threads like this are why I love covers.

Some people crack me up man.  Entertainment at it's finest.
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