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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: 7:05 EST - Boston Celtics @ Atlanta Hawks
si1ly send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 4/29/2012 1:13:39 PM
'10-11 NBA:  90-67  (57.3%)  +19.90u
'10-11 NBA-P:  30-16  (65.2%)  +18.25u
'10-11 NCAAB:  8-1  (88.9%)  +7.90u
'10-11 NHL-P:  11-4  (73.3%)  +7.00u
'10-11 MLB:  97-66  (59.8%)  +31.61u
'10-11 MLB-P:  9-3  (75.0%)  +9.22u
'11-12 NCAAF:  16-21  (43.2%)  -7.40u
'11-12 NCAAF-P:  9-6  (60.0%)  +1.65u
'11-12 NFL:  42-35-1  (54.5%)  +5.05u
'11-12 NFL-P:  5-5  (50.0%)  -0.40u
'11-12 NCAAB:  9-3  (75.0%)  +5.70u
'11-12 NCAAB-P:  5-3  (62.5%)  +1.60u
'11-12 NBA:  77-80 (49.0%)  -13.28u

'11-12 NBA-P:  0-2 (00.0%)  -2.20u


FUTURE:  Atlanta Hawks to win series (+180)

If you read my first round playoff series breakdowns you know that Atlanta has a couple of advantages going for them.  Not only do they hold home court advantage in the first round, they're also statistically better than Boston on a neutral court.  In fact, Atlanta has quietly been one of the better teams in the NBA this season.  I use a number of different proprietary power rankings and Atlanta consistently ranks in the top 10 and always ahead of Boston.  Atlanta has historically struggled in the post-season whereas Boston is known for their playoff experience and success with the Boston Three-party + Rondo.  Boston is also a more public team and those two factors combined is why Vegas set them as favorites in this series.  I was able to grab Atlanta at +180 when the series lines opened and what a deal this is!  I'm getting a team that I rank higher than their opponent with home court advantage at nearly 2-1 odds!  I'd be a fool not to take that.
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#2
Posted: 4/29/2012 1:13:52 PM
7:05 EST - Boston Celtics @ Atlanta Hawks Under 179 (-110)

Onto the game at hand.  This is my favorite bet in the opening round.  I may be on the under in every game this series depending on how the first game plays out and how the oddsmakers adjust the total.  Here's an excerpt taken right out of my playoff series breakdowns that explains why I think the under is such a good bet:  "Along with Philadelphia and Chicago, this will be the lowest scoring playoff series in the first round.  We have two teams that run at a slow pace (ATL #23 ; BOS #22), with inefficient offenses (ATL #18 ; BOS #26), and elite defenses (ATL #6 , BOS #1).  Using these numbers alone, you can derive that the average expected total in this series will be around 178.5 but my model projects the average total of this series to be even lower - why?  Well neither team is very efficient offensively at the rim or attempts a high percentage of shots in this zone.  Atlanta attempts 24 shots at the rim to little success with the 22nd worst eFG% and Boston attempts 23 shots with the 15th worst eFG%.  There's no reason to think either team to have any more success attacking the rim in this series since Atlanta ranks #10 in rim defense and Boston ranks #3.  This means you can expect a lot of possessions to end in jump shots.  Even though both teams are reasonably efficient at knocking down jumpers (ATL #7; BOS #10), their respected defenses are even better at defending them.  Atlanta ranks #6 in jump shooting defense and Boston ranks #2.  Sometimes missing jumpers can lead to second chance points but that's unlikely to happen with these two teams.  Atlanta ranks #25 in offensive rebounding and Boston ranks dead last at #30.  Both teams prefer to get a head start setting up their defenses rather than crashing the offensive glass.  One final metric has a huge influence on totals and that's free throw rate (high FTR's = higher scores).  However, Atlanta plays disciplined defense allowing the 6th lowest opponent free throw rate and Boston is a little below average at #19.  This shouldn't matter much since neither team is very good at drawing fouls anyways (ATL #21 ; BOS #25)."  My model projects the average score of this series at 172.5.  At 179 we have 6.5 points of value and that's plenty to justify a wager.
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#3
Posted: 4/29/2012 1:14:43 PM
#5 Atlanta Hawks vs #4 Boston Celtics.pdf
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#4
Posted: 4/29/2012 1:41:20 PM
BOL, will be joining you here
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#5
Posted: 4/29/2012 1:47:49 PM
No horford no win . KG triumphs
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#6
Posted: 4/29/2012 1:49:01 PM
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#7
Posted: 4/29/2012 1:57:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by canadiantruth:


Thanks CT.  I hope Bynum gets a lot of touches this postseason.  The Lakers need to get him the rock if they want to win.  Something to keep an eye on:  If Kobe takes more attempts than Gasol + Bynum, the Lakers will lose.  If Gasol + Bynum take more attempts than Kobe, the Lakers will win.
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#8
Posted: 4/29/2012 2:12:16 PM
@Si1ly,

I was surprised that you took the Hawks,Are you aware that Horford is not gonna play game 1 ? He might not also play through the rest of this series against the Celts.

The success of Hawks  will depend on  Johnson , Smith & Horford,Now that Horford  is not playing it will be a different Hawks team against the Celts.

Hey the Magic won Game 1 without  Howard on the road,who am i to judge the Hawks on their homecourt on Game 1.

It will be an interesting series if Horford will not play, & Ray Allen  will not play for the Celts,but the good part about the Celts is their young guy Bradley is giving them big contributions while the Hawks wont also have Pachulia for Game 1 which will definitely hurt their middle.

Anyway Goodluck to you Sir & i appreciate your  analysis .    
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#9
Posted: 4/29/2012 2:33:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Fortmax:

@Si1ly,

I was surprised that you took the Hawks,Are you aware that Horford is not gonna play game 1 ? He might not also play through the rest of this series against the Celts.

The success of Hawks  will depend on  Johnson , Smith & Horford,Now that Horford  is not playing it will be a different Hawks team against the Celts.

Hey the Magic won Game 1 without  Howard on the road,who am i to judge the Hawks on their homecourt on Game 1.

It will be an interesting series if Horford will not play, & Ray Allen  will not play for the Celts,but the good part about the Celts is their young guy Bradley is giving them big contributions while the Hawks wont also have Pachulia for Game 1 which will definitely hurt their middle.

Anyway Goodluck to you Sir & i appreciate your  analysis .    

Horford played only 347 minutes this season.  The Hawks played without him for 2303 minutes.  His absence has no affect on my data analysis since the vast majority of data was generated with him not in the line-up.
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#10
Posted: 4/29/2012 2:37:23 PM
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#11
Posted: 4/29/2012 2:48:50 PM
atlanta is not gonna win this series, boston is too deep and experienced
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#12
Posted: 4/29/2012 2:51:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by buffalo11:

atlanta is not gonna win this series, boston is too deep and experienced

Boston is too deep?  What have you been smoking?
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#13
Posted: 4/29/2012 3:00:56 PM
If Atlanta doesn't win this game tonight by 10+ points than I was wrong.

ATLANTA ML for me


Good luck
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#14
Posted: 4/29/2012 3:18:58 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Fortmax:

@Si1ly,

I was surprised that you took the Hawks,Are you aware that Horford is not gonna play game 1 ? He might not also play through the rest of this series against the Celts.

The success of Hawks  will depend on  Johnson , Smith & Horford,Now that Horford  is not playing it will be a different Hawks team against the Celts.

Hey the Magic won Game 1 without  Howard on the road,who am i to judge the Hawks on their homecourt on Game 1.

It will be an interesting series if Horford will not play, & Ray Allen  will not play for the Celts,but the good part about the Celts is their young guy Bradley is giving them big contributions while the Hawks wont also have Pachulia for Game 1 which will definitely hurt their middle.

Anyway Goodluck to you Sir & i appreciate your  analysis .    

pachulia was a monster in two games versus the c's.

also one of the c's wins came off a b2b miami win 4games/5 days and the other was on the tail end of a long west coast road trip.

i dont know how you model that.

wouldnt surprise me to c's win both road games if pachulia cant play.

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#15
Posted: 4/29/2012 3:33:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:


Boston is too deep?  What have you been smoking?


ok let me rephrase that, they are deeper than ATL and more experienced and don't play careless Bball like ATL.
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#16
Posted: 4/29/2012 3:44:04 PM
also i would take doc rivers over larry drew in any series
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#17
Posted: 4/29/2012 3:45:18 PM
No bigs no win , josh smith jacking up 3's LOL .
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#18
Posted: 4/29/2012 4:24:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by buffalo11:

also i would take doc rivers over larry drew in any series

True.  But I've made my case and I'm sticking to it.  There's no way that Boston has a 67% chance to win this series like the line suggests.  They're the road team and they've performed statistically worse than Atlanta has this season.  Sure they have the better coach, more playoff experience and a better defense... but their offense is horrible, they can't rebound and the can't get to the free throw line.  They're not going to have an easy road getting past this Atlanta team which isn't far behind in defensive skill and is also miles ahead in offensive rank.  Based on my data analysis and historical home court advantage first round winning percentage, I believe Atlanta is the one with the 67% chance to win this series.  Way too much value to not take the underdog at this price.
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#19
Posted: 4/29/2012 4:40:13 PM
i really appreciate your analysis. it's very helpful.  thanks for pointing out the obvious under in this game.  i don't bet over/unders that much. i just looked at the games they played this year.  throw out the last one in which the scrubs played.  one game was 88-86 (174) and that included overtime.  i also like when someone says this is my favorite pick of the first round.  good.  i'm with you.  got it at 179.5  it says the majority are on the over.  i love your defensive rankings of 6 and 1.  makes me feel good.  go under.
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#20
Posted: 4/29/2012 5:58:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by stevenp:

i really appreciate your analysis. it's very helpful.  thanks for pointing out the obvious under in this game.  i don't bet over/unders that much. i just looked at the games they played this year.  throw out the last one in which the scrubs played.  one game was 88-86 (174) and that included overtime.  i also like when someone says this is my favorite pick of the first round.  good.  i'm with you.  got it at 179.5  it says the majority are on the over.  i love your defensive rankings of 6 and 1.  makes me feel good.  go under.

Thanks.  I was very close to making this a 2-unit play but I decided against it since it's the first game of the series and I want to wait and see how both of these coaches intend to play the game.  There may just be a 2u under bet in this series later on, but regardless, my confidence is pretty high on this first game.  Good luck!
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#21
Posted: 4/29/2012 6:06:02 PM
I'm on the under as well!
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#22
Posted: 4/29/2012 6:08:19 PM
Boston will crush Atlanta, what a waste. 
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#23
Posted: 4/29/2012 6:11:12 PM
you're one of the best contributors around, my good man, But would you mind dividing your posts into several paragraphs? It's a headache inducing strain on the eyes otherwise.


respect!!
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#24
Posted: 4/29/2012 6:19:37 PM
i'm on board, great analysis as always man, much appreciated!

BOL lets get this
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#25
Posted: 4/29/2012 6:20:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:


Thanks.  I was very close to making this a 2-unit play but I decided against it since it's the first game of the series and I want to wait and see how both of these coaches intend to play the game.  There may just be a 2u under bet in this series later on, but regardless, my confidence is pretty high on this first game.  Good luck!
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