NBA - Game Breakdowns (4-21-12)

Forum: NBA Betting
Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: NBA - Game Breakdowns (4-21-12)
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 4/21/2012 1:02:03 PM
The most comprehensive single-page advanced statistical NBA game breakdown on the internet.  Also includes a proprietary score prediction model to determine value against the spread.  What would have taken you hours of web research to compile and compare all this advanced data, you can now download each game on a single 8.5x11 page for free in a matter of minutes.

*Note:  Significant injuries as of 1:00 PM EST were factored into the score predictions.




NBA - Game Breakdowns (4-21-12)





duelich PM duelich
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Posted: 4/21/2012 1:14:55 PM
This is great stuff si1ly and even though it won't change my pick (which will go against a value of 3 points) such contribution is much appreciated. Good luck with your plays!
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 4/21/2012 1:23:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by duelich:

This is great stuff si1ly and even though it won't change my pick (which will go against a value of 3 points) such contribution is much appreciated. Good luck with your plays!

Yeah the score projection model is still in its infancy.  I try and think of these sheets as more of a research tool.  It has the majority of the advanced metrics that should be used when handicapping an NBA game.  Nowhere else can you find all of this in one place.  Nor can you find it presented in a side by side comparison for each game.  It's more about the data collection than it is about the prediction.

I just hope that people find their own ways to use these sheets to their advantage to not only save time but win some money too.

si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 4/21/2012 1:38:56 PM
Locked in Philadelphia +5 and Denver +5


Looking at Houston -12.5 and Chicago -7
reesie12 PM reesie12
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Posted: 4/21/2012 2:01:22 PM
andreagassi6969 PM andreagassi6969
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Posted: 4/21/2012 2:02:09 PM
azncml PM azncml
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Posted: 4/21/2012 2:25:07 PM
it would be nice if u had the extra stuff written on game notes

ie, bosh,wade = out.


JEG53 PM JEG53
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Posted: 4/21/2012 2:28:50 PM
Good stuff capper,love the point diff.by position,nice.
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 4/21/2012 2:47:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JEG53:

Good stuff capper,love the point diff.by position,nice.

That's not point differential.  That's PER (Player efficiency rating).  It's a very complicated formula but it does way more than looking at scoring production.  It includes steals, free throw rates, rebounds, assists.  It's a comprehensive stat that can be used to determine who has an advantage at each position.
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 4/21/2012 2:50:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by azncml:

it would be nice if u had the extra stuff written on game notes

ie, bosh,wade = out.



It takes a lot of time just to produce and publish these each day.  If I were to do write-ups on each game like that it would be asking to much of my time.  Handicapping is just a hobby - it's not my profession.

I made the format such that you can print these out if you want to and write in those notes under the injuries or game notes section.  It's user friendly in that way.
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 4/21/2012 4:23:17 PM
Added Chicago -7 to my card
shark_apreza PM shark_apreza
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Posted: 4/21/2012 4:33:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by azncml:

it would be nice if u had the extra stuff written on game notes

ie, bosh,wade = out.




anything else---i mean the guy already busted hs behind in doiung this stuff......do some research dont be a lazy behind bum
JEG53 PM JEG53
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Posted: 4/21/2012 5:05:09 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:


That's not point differential.  That's PER (Player efficiency rating).  It's a very complicated formula but it does way more than looking at scoring production.  It includes steals, free throw rates, rebounds, assists.  It's a comprehensive stat that can be used to determine who has an advantage at each position.


So whats the limit on max eff.,like is it a 1-4 with 4 being top of scale,just trying to understand the diff.by position.
EasternEuropean PM EasternEuropean
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Posted: 4/21/2012 5:19:56 PM
how successful (%wise) is this model in:

a) ATS
b) O/U

Thanks :)
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 4/21/2012 5:34:32 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JEG53:



So whats the limit on max eff.,like is it a 1-4 with 4 being top of scale,just trying to understand the diff.by position.

Here's the wikipedia article on PER if you want to know more about it's origin and formula:  PER.wiki

Here's how individual PER numbers should be understood:

A Year For the Ages: 35.0
Runaway MVP Candidate: 30.0
Strong MVP Candidate: 27.5
Weak MVP Candidate: 25.0
Bona fide All-Star: 22.5
Borderline All-Star: 20.0
Solid 2nd option: 18.0
3rd Banana: 16.5
Pretty good player: 15.0
In the rotation: 13.0
Scrounging for minutes: 11.0
Definitely renting: 9.0
The Next Stop: DLeague 5.0


So here's how you should analyze the comparison data:  Looking at the DAL@CHI game you see that CHI has a +2.1 PER and DAL has a -1.3 PER at the Center position.  The differential is CHI +3.4.  In a league where the majority of starters range between a PER of 10-20.  +3.4 can make a big difference.  Chicago's center is roughly 30% better than Dallas center.  That's the difference between a guy that averages 15-3-7 and  20-4-10.  You get the idea.
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 4/21/2012 5:39:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by EasternEuropean:

how successful (%wise) is this model in:

a) ATS
b) O/U

Thanks :)

No idea.  Haven't had the time to keep track of that.  It's a little late in the season too for this to matter.  Teams are really banged up at this point and there are huge variances in motivation.  Both of those variables really throw off the accuracy of the model.  I have all the links posted for the last three weeks.  If somebody wanted to back-check be my guest.

VietBlonde PM VietBlonde
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Posted: 4/21/2012 6:22:42 PM

Hi si1ly,

THANK YOU so much for the 2H advice on the Spurs last night.  I was down for the day yesterday and because of your post/advice it saved me. I broke even yesterday and that is still a winner in my book.  Please post any of your thoughts or ideas during half time.

BOL tonight and Greatly Appreciated,

 AND

si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 4/21/2012 7:16:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by VietBlonde:

Hi si1ly,

THANK YOU so much for the 2H advice on the Spurs last night.  I was down for the day yesterday and because of your post/advice it saved me. I broke even yesterday and that is still a winner in my book.  Please post any of your thoughts or ideas during half time.

BOL tonight and Greatly Appreciated,

 AND


Glad to hear it.  Spurs are a dangerous team.  They have the offensive weaponry to beat anybody in the West.  I'm just not sure if they have the defense to compete with the power houses in the East.
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 4/21/2012 7:41:35 PM
Word is Derek Rose is playing.  Glad I got in at -7 because Rose is worth 2 points on the line.  Should move back to -9 by tip if he in fact is starting.
UglyKidJoe PM UglyKidJoe
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Posted: 4/21/2012 9:02:38 PM
That's good stuff.
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 4/21/2012 9:57:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by UglyKidJoe:

That's good stuff.

Thanks man.  A lot of work went into putting this together.  It's for the benefit of the community.  Use these sheets however you want to.  They're here to help you save time and better understand how advanced statistics can be used to predict NBA games.
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 4/21/2012 10:31:19 PM
3-0 day.  First time in a long time that I swept a card.

Denver +5
Philadelphia +5
Chicago -7


duelich PM duelich
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Posted: 4/21/2012 11:44:26 PM
SweetDickWormy PM SweetDickWormy
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Posted: 4/22/2012 2:02:15 AM
Congrats my boy!
imsoti8 PM imsoti8
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Posted: 4/22/2012 12:37:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:

3-0 day.  First time in a long time that I swept a card.

Denver +5
Philadelphia +5
Chicago -7


Great job si1ly!
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