Posted:
#1
19-11, +7.90
I’m playing Memphis over the total here as I did last night and it sets itself up pretty well I think. They just played a stretch of nine straight unders prior to getting into the faster pace of Phoenix last night, and they liked it. San Antonio’s pretty even in pace, and coming off of the snail Lakers, so the up and down should be there tonight. A few things here about San Antonio. I think they looked at the fact that Kobe wasn’t playing last night as a game where they could just show up and win. That certainly wasn’t the case, they got pounded on the boards and on the inside, also noting they only shot about 34% inside the arc. I will also point out the fact that they were also returning from altitude and getting back to a lineup with the key components getting back in the mix after a day off. Combine all of those factors, and I think that explains the poor performance, which should get a nice reverse to the mean and pace of this game tonight with a bunch of points. One offensive rebound? Only got to the foul line 9 times? This offense shows up tonight, and it’s a bit fresher than most teams on a back-to-back with how last night’s game played out, so again, the pace should be there. As for Memphis, they too are coming into a back-to-back here after posting a 100+ point total last night. The total seems heavy tonight, especially when you look at the scores of this series this year. They’ve reached point totals of 173, 156, and 177. This is actually the highest listed total between the two teams this year in the 3 meetings. I think it’s this high for a reason. While the first meetings didn’t really get to many points in the grand scheme of things, the pace was certainly there. In those three games, they played to 99, 95, and 91 possessions. But those situations were no where near the situation tonight. The 91 possession game Memphis was coming off a four game roady with a day off and return trip home, also in the middle of a seven to the under streak, and a four game losing streak (coincidentally their only four game roady of the year w/o Randolph). As for San Antonio in the 91 possession spot, they too were on their first roady of more than two games, which ended at Memphis in the 91 possession game, which came directly after the OT game with Dallas in a back-to-back (and played w/o Ginobili). Thus, this one should be played to the 95-99 possession range, unlike the one game where they really couldn’t score in few possessions. Yes, both are playing on a back-to-back with no prep, that’s good for the lack of defense. I’m not worried about the offenses with San Antonio bouncing back, and Memphis on the nice streak they’re going at. This total is listed higher than the rest of the series for a reason, and I’ll go with the value. One last thing, even if the offense isn’t there, the chance for points is going to be there with the pace. If you look at the past three meetings, they just didn’t shoot all that well. In those three games, the two teams combined for 31, 35, and 38 turnovers. So even if this game does seem slow, the high amount of turnovers in the series should dictate the pace regardless of the outcome, and if it doesn’t, then you have less of a defensive effort in the half court in the back-to-back. A lot of things converging here, and both are in a nice spot to put up some points tonight. In all three meetings this year, in a total of six instances, not one time did either of these teams score over a point per possession (0-6). That changes tonight given the spot.
I like Minnesota, just an awkward spot. They’re on a back-to-back coming out of altitude, into home against a Clipper team on a letdown having just beat the Thunder in a back-to-back who also happens to come here into Minnesota on Saturday (Clippers also draw the Thunder Monday again). Also have a Minnesota team who just covered a game after eight straight defeats against the number, and catching about five more points in this exact spot in a game about a month ago. This game is spot heavy for both teams; I just need to avoid it on both sides.
5* Memphis/San Antonio Over 196.5
GL
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