Posted:
#1
'10-11 NBA: 90-67 (57.3%) +19.90u
'10-11 NBA-P: 30-16 (65.2%) +18.25u
'10-11 NCAAB: 8-1 (88.9%) +7.90u
'10-11 NHL-P: 11-4 (73.3%) +7.00u
'10-11 MLB: 97-66 (59.8%) +31.61u
'10-11 MLB-P: 9-3 (75.0%) +9.22u
'11-12 NCAAF: 16-21 (43.2%) -7.40u
'11-12 NCAAF-P: 9-6 (60.0%) +1.65u
'11-12 NFL: 42-35-1 (54.5%) +5.05u
'11-12 NFL-P: 5-5 (50.0%) -0.40u
'11-12 NCAAB: 9-3 (75.0%) +5.70u
'11-12 NCAAB-P: 4-2 (66.7%) +1.70u
'11-12 NBA: 62-63-1 (48.7%) -4.58u
7:05 EST - Toronto Raptors +5.5 (-110)
This is a double revenge game for the Raptors. Linsanity was in full effect the last time these teams met in Toronto (it also happened to be peak Asian tourist week in the city for that game). I think there were just as many New York (Jeremy Lin) fans as there were Toronto fans at that game. Toronto choked away a fourth quarter lead and Lin took over in the final minutes hitting a crucial three point basket from the top of the key to seal the deal. Obviously the Knicks are playing great basketball right now and the public knows this. Toronto is barely getting a third of all ATS action on the game. Why isn't the line moving? Well Vegas is already giving up a ton of value on this game and would be foolish to inflate this spread any more than they already have. According to my model, a true line on this game is Toronto -1.6 (New York has a road PSR of -1.2 and Toronto has a home PSR of +0.4). New York has been playing better than this number lately and Toronto playing worse, so it makes sense that Toronto isn't favored in this game as the model suggests. However, a 7 point adjustment from the "true line" is a bit over doing it (the fact that New York has covered 6 in a row probably has something to do with the excess inflation). Since the All Star game, there have only been 16 games that have had more than 6 points of value, and even fewer with more than 7. The team with value in these games has a 10-6 ATS record and I expect that number to go to 11-6 after tonight. New York just won a huge game on the road against Philadelphia and might have a bit of a let down in tonight's game playing their third game in four nights. With Toronto out for revenge and looking for a much needed win we have two teams with opposing motivational angles tonight. Couple that with the extreme value on the line and we have a solid angle to back the home dog. No need to break this game down any further with stats comparisons.
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