NBA Totals - Tuesday 3-6-12

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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: NBA Totals - Tuesday 3-6-12
rlawson PM rlawson
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Posted: 3/6/2012 9:32:16 AM

YTD (Overall): 44-27 / 62.0% (+33.6)

4 Unit Bets: (3-0)

3 Unit Bets: (2-1)

2 Unit Bets: (14-5)

1 Unit Bets: (25-21)

Yesterday's Thread: http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=22&sub=101288253

Today's Lines / Mine (Actual):

Charlotte vs. Orlando - 188.7 (188.0)

Indiana vs. Atlanta - 182.9 (NL)

Boston vs. Houston - 185.8 (189.0)

Miami vs. New Jersey - 193.2 (NL)

Detroit vs. LA Lakers - 191.4 (186.5)

Dallas vs. New York - 185.5 (191.5)

The Mavs/Knicks game is sitting right at a 6.0 variance; I'm going to wait and see what kind of movement we get on that game before making it a play (or not). I really hope that Pistons/Lakers game goes down from where it's at currently (186.5) because I love the over there and would like to consider it a system play.


thebestpicks PM thebestpicks
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Posted: 3/6/2012 9:38:43 AM
going to play the lal over! 
Saekopsycho PM Saekopsycho
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Posted: 3/6/2012 9:56:18 AM
2 of the 3 refs for Dallas game belongs to the top 9 refs with OVER bias.

Jason Phillips will be on the Lakeshow game. O/U stats are 7-20
howzuck PM howzuck
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Posted: 3/6/2012 10:14:01 AM
I do think the ref angle should be considered, but I also think it is overrated.  Line is already increasing on DAL-NYK game, could be a play as it approaches 195.  Not sure what will happen with LAL-Det, line may increase not decrease.
dendogg55 PM dendogg55
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Posted: 3/6/2012 10:14:43 AM
GL man.
rlawson PM rlawson
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Posted: 3/6/2012 10:35:31 AM
As far as refs are concerned, I do incorporate their average total PPG, but it plays a very small part of it. Other than that Tony Brothers angle, I don't think it's good to put TOO much thought into trends, whether it be O/U or ATS. As I said, my lines that I put out already incorporate the ref numbers. I do NOT just average their total points on average with the teams; the ref numbers make up probably 5% of the final line I put out.
andreagassi6969 PM andreagassi6969
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Posted: 3/6/2012 10:36:27 AM
rlawson PM rlawson
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Posted: 3/6/2012 10:37:20 AM
The Indiana/Atlanta & Miami/New Jersey lines are out. I had estimated 182.9 for Indiana/Atlanta and the line put out is 183.0, a difference of 0.1. The Miami/NJ line came out at 195.5 as opposed to me guess of 193.2, a difference of 2.3 points. These will be no plays for me.
Redbull88 PM Redbull88
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Posted: 3/6/2012 11:37:00 AM

thanks for your insight.   good luck! 

cashinsports PM cashinsports
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Posted: 3/6/2012 11:38:31 AM

r "the totals mastermind" lawson

nice day yesterday (2-1 +4units) ...heck been a nice past few days...in fact damn nice season since you've been posting my friend.

i don't have to say it everyday but I am always looking for your post. now a lot more are catching on and noticing your posts.

i love how you lock in your bet and then the line always moves against you. kinda funny, but i guess it doesn't matter because they're always winners in those cases anyways lol.

your doing great and thanks for crunching the numbers and doing all the hard work. great info and insight. wish you continued sucess mate.

good luck tonight. and you know i'll be in here again tomorrow lol.

Full-Grown PM Full-Grown
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Posted: 3/6/2012 11:51:40 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cashinsports:

r "the totals mastermind" lawson

nice day yesterday (2-1 +4units) ...heck been a nice past few days...in fact damn nice season since you've been posting my friend.

i don't have to say it everyday but I am always looking for your post. now a lot more are catching on and noticing your posts.

i love how you lock in your bet and then the line always moves against you. kinda funny, but i guess it doesn't matter because they're always winners in those cases anyways lol.

your doing great and thanks for crunching the numbers and doing all the hard work. great info and insight. wish you continued sucess mate.

good luck tonight. and you know i'll be in here again tomorrow lol.



Shiiiit...  I look forward to both your posts in this thread; R Lawson and yours just so I can see that bangin broad. 
philly387 PM philly387
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Posted: 3/6/2012 11:56:04 AM
Looking forward to your play/plays tonight! Good luck lets get 'em!
CalifDreamin PM CalifDreamin
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Posted: 3/6/2012 12:02:10 PM
Glglglglglglglglglglglglglglgl
Posted using a mobile device.
Sabar PM Sabar
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Posted: 3/6/2012 12:25:53 PM
about tony brothers were they refs tonight wich team
waltes1 PM waltes1
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Posted: 3/6/2012 12:34:17 PM

Dal/NyK line and LaL/Det line have increased in my book by .5

This makes the DAL/NYK game more to the systems liking and the LAL/DET is moving the wrong way for the system. 

Just to give everyone an update.

DAL/NYK 192

LAL/DET 187

cashinsports PM cashinsports
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Posted: 3/6/2012 12:39:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Sabar:

about tony brothers were they refs tonight wich team
Nets vs heat.
Sabar PM Sabar
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Posted: 3/6/2012 12:43:25 PM
thank you very much cashin
Sabar PM Sabar
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Posted: 3/6/2012 12:47:24 PM
thank you very much cashin
im going  net and lal under for tonight gl guy

Kings55dez PM Kings55dez
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Posted: 3/6/2012 1:28:32 PM
Good luck rlawson!
Bernman23 PM Bernman23
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Posted: 3/6/2012 1:53:22 PM
over on the lakers game looks solid BOL  
turtleboy PM turtleboy
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Posted: 3/6/2012 2:03:27 PM

Nice day yesterday my friend. Good Luck today. Looking forward to your plays.

Turtle

Wilfred23 PM Wilfred23
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Posted: 3/6/2012 2:05:08 PM

Hey RLawson im creating a spreadsheet based on your systems numbers, closing lines and the actual score of each pick and a few other factors since like Feb 14 around there. Just too see around where is the "perfect" spot to bet on , even though it wont be 100% because anything can happend just like yesterday you should of gone 3-0 but  nothing is perfect  just have to work at getting close to it. Im just looking at the difference between them and analyzing what % of these difference is actually hitting than the rest. Hopefully this can help all of us, just a little project i want to finish by the end of the week, and see the difference.  Once im done i'll let you know hopefully i can finish and see the outcome .

Wish me luck .

rlawson PM rlawson
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Posted: 3/6/2012 2:37:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Wilfred23:

Hey RLawson im creating a spreadsheet based on your systems numbers, closing lines and the actual score of each pick and a few other factors since like Feb 14 around there. Just too see around where is the "perfect" spot to bet on , even though it wont be 100% because anything can happend just like yesterday you should of gone 3-0 but  nothing is perfect  just have to work at getting close to it. Im just looking at the difference between them and analyzing what % of these difference is actually hitting than the rest. Hopefully this can help all of us, just a little project i want to finish by the end of the week, and see the difference.  Once im done i'll let you know hopefully i can finish and see the outcome .

Wish me luck .

Good luck with that! I've recently been considering increasing the variance that I look for. As you can see from my total record, the 1 Unit plays are just BARELY creating a profit and while it would drastically diminish the quantity of plays I have, only playing those that would be considered 2 Units are more would be sitting at 19-6 (76%) right now. Let me know what you come up with; that would be very interesting to see.

rlawson PM rlawson
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Posted: 3/6/2012 2:39:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cashinsports:

r "the totals mastermind" lawson

nice day yesterday (2-1 +4units) ...heck been a nice past few days...in fact damn nice season since you've been posting my friend.

i don't have to say it everyday but I am always looking for your post. now a lot more are catching on and noticing your posts.

i love how you lock in your bet and then the line always moves against you. kinda funny, but i guess it doesn't matter because they're always winners in those cases anyways lol.

your doing great and thanks for crunching the numbers and doing all the hard work. great info and insight. wish you continued sucess mate.

good luck tonight. and you know i'll be in here again tomorrow lol.

Thanks for the kind words! I haven't been able to be as attentive to the board for a few days, but I'm currently in the airport, flying through Denver then back out to the Bay Area to continue "life as normal." I always look forward to your input on my plays because, while the system is nice and a great starting point, a little common sense (which most of the time I'm lacking) is always helpful.

rlawson PM rlawson
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Posted: 3/6/2012 2:41:44 PM
thebestpics, Saek, dendogg, Sabar, turtle, Bernman, CD, philly, Full-Grown, redbull & andre - thanks for the well wishes; GL to you all today (sorry if I forgot anyone).
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