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[NBA Betting] Topic: NBA Totals - Tuesday 2-28-12 |
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rlawson |
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#1 Posted: 2/28/2012 9:51:09 AM YTD (Overall): 32-22 / 59.3% (+16.4)
4 Unit Bets: (1-0)
3 Unit Bets: (2-0)
2 Unit Bets: (6-4)
1 Unit Bets: (23-18)
Today's Lines / Mine (Actual):
Cleveland vs. Boston - 187.1 (183.5)
Indiana vs. Golden State - 194.1 (201.5)
Detroit vs. Philadelphia - 185.7 (182.5)
Chicago vs. New Orleans - 179.2 (180.0)
Milwaukee vs. Washington - 194.6 (200.0)
Houston vs. Toronto - 187.2 (191.0)
Dallas vs. New Jersey - 188.3 (188.5)
Sacramento vs. Utah - 199.6 (202.5)
LA Clippers vs. Minnesota - 193.7 (196.0)
I'm looking to stay more disciplined the second half of this season. There were a lot of times that I pushed for system plays the first half and while some of them ended in wins, more of them ended in losses. I've had a variance number that I have been telling myself to stick to and I will be abiding by that the rest of the NBA regular season. Good luck to everyone the rest of the way.
FINAL PLAYS:
Indiana vs. Golden State UNDER 201.5 (2 units)
I expect this line to drop throughout the day, considering that Stephen Curry is listed as doubtful. These teams have met once before (January 20) and that ended in a 94-91 Pacers win in Golden State. I look for teams to come out a bit sluggish tonight and perhaps the rest of this week after the long break that most of them had. The only All-Star on either team was Roy Hibbert. I look for that to be a factor because guys like Lebron, Durant & Kobe were all able to stay active and in a basketball state of mind. Yes, I expect everyone to come out REFRESHED, but at least playing every night or every other night before the break allowed teams and shooters to stay in rhythm. Again, IMO, this line will move down during the day (it opened at 202.0 in most places). If you want to make this UNDER play, jump on it now. But as some of you have seen, I'm a terrible judge of future line movement. |
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Metallica2467 |
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#2 Posted: 2/28/2012 9:54:27 AM  |
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rlawson |
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#3 Posted: 2/28/2012 9:55:53 AM  |
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Ron_Burgundy |
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#4 Posted: 2/28/2012 10:04:48 AM  |
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rlawson |
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#5 Posted: 2/28/2012 10:28:38 AM |
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Kings55dez |
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#6 Posted: 2/28/2012 10:30:44 AM |
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rlawson |
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#7 Posted: 2/28/2012 10:35:33 AM Kings - you too, brother.
Well, as I oppositely-expected, the line has moved up to 202.5 (at least here on Covers). If anyone has any tips on how to better estimate these moves, I'm all ears. However, my book has taken this game down; I'm assuming it's because of Curry? Perhaps his status has changed. The last I saw he was doubtful, but maybe he's been upgraded (or downgraded). My lines take into account full-strength, so whether Curry plays or not, it makes no difference. If the line goes higher, I may put more on it, similar to Miami/New York right before the break. |
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archtown |
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#8 Posted: 2/28/2012 10:36:20 AM
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rlawson |
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#9 Posted: 2/28/2012 10:49:44 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by archtown:
202.5 now.....
That's fine. I'm awful at guessing the moves (obviously). If it continues to go up, with or without Curry, I will consider putting an additional play on the higher line. |
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rlawson |
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#10 Posted: 2/28/2012 11:02:36 AM My book just put this game back on the board at 201.5. |
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waltes1 |
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#11 Posted: 2/28/2012 11:16:30 AM
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JPSM |
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#12 Posted: 2/28/2012 11:17:37 AM |
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rlawson |
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#13 Posted: 2/28/2012 11:18:36 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by waltes1:
My site doesnt even have the lines posted yet wtf?!?
For any games or just this one? |
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rlawson |
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#14 Posted: 2/28/2012 11:18:50 AM |
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Petro27 |
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#15 Posted: 2/28/2012 12:08:44 PM |
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rlawson |
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#16 Posted: 2/28/2012 12:23:22 PM |
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ddawg284 |
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#17 Posted: 2/28/2012 12:26:36 PM  |
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waltes1 |
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#18 Posted: 2/28/2012 12:31:25 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by rlawson:
For any games or just this one?
They released the over unders about half hour ago.
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rlawson |
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#19 Posted: 2/28/2012 12:36:18 PM FINAL PLAYS:
Indiana vs. Golden State UNDER 201.5 (2 units)
Washington vs. Milwaukee UNDER 201 (2 units) |
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cashinsports |
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#20 Posted: 2/28/2012 4:13:00 PM good luck with both plays. I always like playing unders.
still checking a few things before I post my final plays. will be up before tip off.
let's have a great second half |
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j1726jonez |
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#21 Posted: 2/28/2012 4:27:06 PM |
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envinceable3 |
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#22 Posted: 2/28/2012 4:40:45 PM
Goodluck! |
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m3dicineman |
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#23 Posted: 2/28/2012 5:00:24 PM |
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rlawson |
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#24 Posted: 2/28/2012 5:25:11 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by cashinsports:
good luck with both plays. I always like playing unders.
still checking a few things before I post my final plays. will be up before tip off.
let's have a great second half
GL to us Cashin; no reason we can't keep it up. |
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rlawson |
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#25 Posted: 2/28/2012 5:26:46 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by j1726jonez:
how bout bos?
If you mean Boston ATS, I'm on Cleveland +3.5; there's no reason to think that the break made the Celts a completely different road team than they were in the first half. As far as total, I think the OVER is the way to go (as my numbers suggest). Boston is healthy so the offense should be back to normal, but their defense is suspect on the road. Cleveland isn't afraid of the Celts and should go right at them. |
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