Atlanta Hawks +6.5
Mathematically projected score: Hawks 95 Knicks 92
Unit split: 90% spread and 10% money line
This is pretty much the quintessential play for my method. (1) We are gaining a theoretical edge from the fact that Atlanta plays better on the road than at home and New York plays worse at home than they do on the road.
(2) We are taking advantage of any over-adjustment due to the loss of Joe Johnson and the recent return of Carmelo Anthony.
(3) We are taking advantage of a “noumenal edge”. Jeremy Lin is a phenom and, as a little philosophy lesson, phenomenal in opposite of noumenal. The phenomenal world refers to anything that is an object of the senses (bias), the noumenal world is based on facts known without the senses (without bias.) Basically, all the hype that surrounds Jeremy Lin is in excess of the actual skills he possesses and the actual difference he makes. Historically, the noumenal realm describes as the “world of ideas”, in contrast the phenomenal realm equates to the realm of sensory reality known to the uneducated mind. Which realm do you exist in? The noumenal if you understand my reasoning for taking the Hawks.
Also, do not forget that Jeff Teague and Kirk Hinrich are considered to be 2 of the top on-ball perimeter defenders in the NBA. Look for an off-night from Lin.
Hold-off on this line, I think the Joe Johnson injury will encourage the public even more and push this line to 7+.
Utah Jazz +4
Mathematically projected score: Jazz 100 Timberwolves 99
Unit split: 75% spread and 25% money line
The trend returns for this match-up, in a less-extreme manner. The T-Wolves are yet another team that plays better on the road, so we are gaining another theoretical edge due to the universal home court advantage adjustment that books make.
Another huge factor is Pekovic’s absence. Many people do not understand how important Pekovic has become to this team. Next to Love he is, statistically, the second-most important player to this team. To put it in perspective: Love creates a +9.8 net (+/-) advantage for the T-Wolves.. Pekovic creates a +8.8 net (+/-) advantage.. Rubio only creates a +4.1 net (+/-) advantage.. Now, how many of you would consider, without researching it, Rubio’s absence is more important than Pekovic’s?.. that’s what I thought.
Wait on this line, it should improve due to a heavy public backing of the T-Wolves.
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