Posted:
#1
'10-11 NBA: 90-67 (57.3%) +19.90u
'10-11 NBA-P: 30-16 (65.2%) +18.25u
'10-11 NCAAB: 8-1 (88.9%) +7.90u
'10-11 NHL-P: 11-4 (73.3%) +7.00u
'10-11 MLB: 97-66 (59.8%) +31.61u
'10-11 MLB-P: 9-3 (75.0%) +9.22u
'11-12 NCAAF: 16-21 (43.2%) -7.40u
'11-12 NCAAF-P: 9-6 (60.0%) +1.65u
'11-12 NFL: 42-35-1 (54.5%) +5.05u
'11-12 NFL-P: 5-5 (50.0%) -0.40u
'11-12 NCAAB: 7-2 (77.8%) +4.80u
'11-12 NBA: 44-39-1 (53.1%) +2.62u
3:05 EST - Orlando Magic 9.5 (-110)
This play is all about value. So the Heat lost the last time these teams met in humiliating fashion only scoring 11 points in the third quarter to fall to Orlando 89-102. Interestingly enough, the Heat shot better (47.2%-42.1%), had more points in the paint (40-30) and had more fast break points (16-5). The difference was in rebounding. Orlando won the total rebounding batting 48-38 lead by a 24 rebounding night by Superman. They also had 17 offensive rebounds affording them an extra 7 more shots than Miami. When you can take 7 more shots than your opponent with second chance points, it doesn't matter how well you shoot. Offensive rebounding is huge in this league (determines 20-25% the outcome of a game). I don't expect that to change today. Miami just has nobody to guard Dwight. They don't have the size in the paint to compete with his enormous body. Using my new home/away relative point spread rankings: Miami's home PSR is +6.2 and Orlando's away PSR is +2.1. Take the difference and you find Miami should be -4.1 at home today. Neither team has any major injuries to speak of so let's look at scheduling. I've already addressed that Miami is in a revenge spot, but is revenge worth 5.4 points? I don't think so. To make things even better for Magic backers, this is the first home game for Miami after a 6 game road trip where they won 5-1 (covering 5 in a row since losing to Orlando). Their recent success has generated even more value on this line but the opposite should be true: teams playing their first game home after a long road trip often come out a little "flat". As the public gobbles up a hot Miami team looking for revenge, I'll take advantage of the value they're creating and back the dog.
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