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[NBA Betting] Topic: NBA Friday.. 1-1 yesterday.. 47-31 YTD (59.5%) |
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capperintuition |
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#1 Posted: 2/17/2012 9:10:42 AM
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enixx |
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#2 Posted: 2/17/2012 9:16:29 AM 
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capperintuition |
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#3 Posted: 2/17/2012 9:18:50 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by enixx: what are your 4 possible plays?
Bucks, Bobcats, Cavs, Nuggets
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BravesFan1984 |
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#4 Posted: 2/17/2012 9:47:24 AM  |
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capperintuition |
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#5 Posted: 2/17/2012 1:02:19 PM
It's obvious why the Hornets qualify for a play, they are very banged-up and Jeremy Lin is the biggest story in basketball right now. This line is blown up almost as much as Jeremy Lin has over the past week and a half.
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Osiris2012 |
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#6 Posted: 2/17/2012 1:53:32 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by capperintuition:
The Hornets are also a prospective play, it looks like they will take Denver's spot, as we will need at least +5 to take Denver, and I don't see that happening.
It's obvious why the Hornets qualify for a play, they are very banged-up and Jeremy Lin is the biggest story in basketball right now. This line is blown up almost as much as Jeremy Lin has over the past week and a half.
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SportsFreak69 |
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#7 Posted: 2/17/2012 2:39:52 PM  |
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#8 Posted: 2/17/2012 2:42:11 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by capperintuition:
"5 points is often my threshold for a play, this one landed on 4.5 after Granger was announced as probable. I'll take a 4.5 point edge as long as it is a dog get a good amount of points, I will not take a 4.5 edge on a favorite laying a lot of chalk.
I mentioned above that I was impatient and locked this play in too early because I considered Granger doubtful and didn't want to get bit by a line change when he was officially scratched, so that was a bit risky on my part. I should have been more careful, especially after what happened with the Nash and G.Hill scratches on Tuesday."
I take it your book had 9 1/2. Some books never went higher than 9. A lot of books that went to 9 1/2 went back to 9 about 10 min. later. I don't know whether you could consider the 9 1/2 a commonly available number. If the 9 1/2 wasn't available with Granger in, you would consider he Nets a "no play", right? Also, is whether to use a 5 1/2, 5 or 4 1/2 point edge strictly based on what pointspread range the prospective side falls within, or are there other considerations involved? Thanks. |
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capperintuition |
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#9 Posted: 2/17/2012 3:11:32 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Stew Baker: QUOTE Originally Posted by capperintuition:
"5 points is often my threshold for a play, this one landed on 4.5 after Granger was announced as probable. I'll take a 4.5 point edge as long as it is a dog get a good amount of points, I will not take a 4.5 edge on a favorite laying a lot of chalk.
I mentioned above that I was impatient and locked this play in too early because I considered Granger doubtful and didn't want to get bit by a line change when he was officially scratched, so that was a bit risky on my part. I should have been more careful, especially after what happened with the Nash and G.Hill scratches on Tuesday."
I take it your book had 9 1/2. Some books never went higher than 9. A lot of books that went to 9 1/2 went back to 9 about 10 min. later. I don't know whether you could consider the 9 1/2 a commonly available number. If the 9 1/2 wasn't available with Granger in, you would consider he Nets a "no play", right? Also, is whether to use a 5 1/2, 5 or 4 1/2 point edge strictly based on what pointspread range the prospective side falls within, or are there other considerations involved? Thanks.
It was a close call with Granger in, but still enough of an edge to take. I told everyone I talked to before the game via twitter or otherwise that the Nets was still a play.
And, no, what degree of an edge is not completely reliant on the point spread range. I would like to get a home team or a dog if I am going to use a 4.5-point edge because both are about 2% more likely to cover than a road team or a favorite. If I decide to take a dog, I would like it to be a dog of +3.5 or more, because 3 is as close as you get to a key number in basketball.
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capperintuition |
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#10 Posted: 2/17/2012 3:18:41 PM
Milwaukee Bucks +8
Projected score: Bucks 95 Magic 98
Unit split: 95% spread and 5% money line
News that Drew Gooden is out may have just sweetened this bet up
considerably, we just need the line adjustment to match. The fact is
that Leuer is a much more efficient player than Gooden is. Leuer is
actually the most valuable Bucks, in terms of net (+/-) value regarding
the good he does when he is on the court/damage is done when he is on
the bench. Leuer’s value is +6.3 which is quite high, one the other
hand, Gooden rank’s 3rd-to-last on the Bucks with a value of -4.5,
meaning he puts the Bucks at a 4.5-point deficit.
Most people over-value starters just because they are labeled as
starters. Leuer only narrowly trails Gooden in points, rebounds,
assists per 36 mins but he is better where it counts: less turnovers,
higher FG%, more blocks.
Charlotte Bobcats +7
Projected score: Bobcats 92 Raptors 94
Unit split: 90% spread and 10% money line
This match-up presents another interesting injury situation. These
are 2 of the worst teams in the NBA and should not be separated by 7
points. The Bobcats are healthier than they have been since the start
of the season, while the raptors are very banged-up. I did not adjust
for Bargnani’s absence, because he has been gone for so many games that
the line is adjusted accordingly. However, the injury to Linus Kleiza
is far more important than you may think.
Kleiza is the second most important player on the Raptors,
statistically. Second to whom? You got it, Bargnani. Bargnani creates a
+8.8 net (+/-) for the Raptors, and Kleiza creates +6.1. The next
most important player is James Johnson at +1.5 so there is a huge gap,
meaning Kleiza basically took-over for Bargnani’s all-important lead
role, even though he is a bench player. Kleiza being a bench player is
precisely why his injury will fly under the radar.
The Bobcats could easily win this one straight-up. They hold a huge
trend advantage here, so I will list the trends that are helping to
inflate this line:
Bobcats ATS trends due for progression:
- Bobcats are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5.
- Bobcats are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
- Bobcats are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5.
- Bobcats are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
- Bobcats are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Raptors ATS trends due for regression:
- Raptors are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games.
- Raptors are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Raptors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
- Raptors are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss.
- Raptors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
- Raptors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
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capperintuition |
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#11 Posted: 2/17/2012 3:19:18 PM
Cleveland Cavaliers +10
Projected score: Heat 102 Cavs 98
Unit split: 95% spread and 5% money line
LeBron makes another return to Cleveland. You can be sure that the
home crowd will be in full attendance and belligerent, god bless them.
The Cavs are a bit banged-up, but they only lose a small advantage with
Varejao’s absence. Varejao contributes +3.4 (+/-) for team. Erden
needs to step-up and have another big game. I think it’s better for the
Cavs to have Parker and Gibson out, so Sessions gets a full complement
of minutes and Gee has another opportunity to prove himself.
The Cavs are quietly tied for the 3rd-best team when it comes to ATS
(+/-) at +1.9 and that means they are quite undervalued. I think the
Cavs hold their own in this emotional game against their former star, 10
is just too many points.
New Orleans Hornets +10
Projected score: Hornets 92 Knicks 93
Unit split: 95% spread and 5% money line
This is simply a value play, I don’t have much good to say about the
Hornets, and I didn’t have much good to say about the Knicks until
Jeremy Lin came around. All I know is that the books cannot afford to
keep setting lines that the Knicks can cover night after night, Jeremy
Lin’s emergence has created so much fan fare in a huge city that Knicks
homer money is enough to inflate this line, let alone the rest of the
country that has been diagnosed with LINsanity, it’s a LINpedemic.
The Hornets appear to be very banged-up, and they are, but all that
is on the surface. If you look at the numbers, Ayon and Vasquez are the
most important active players for the Hornets at +8.4 and +4.0
respectively. Gordon technically makes the biggest difference (+11.4)
for the Hornets, but he has only played 6% of Hornets minutes this
year. Vasquez and Ayon, along with the re-emergence of Chris Kaman make
the Hornets a worthy team to at least stay within 10 points of the
Knicks, if not catch them looking ahead to Dallas and shock them at
home. The Hornets only have 6 wins, but look at who they have beaten:
Suns, Celtics, Nuggets, Magic, Bucks, Jazz granted, some of those teams
are having down years, but 4 of the 6 still have a record over .500 pct.
It’s worth noting that the Hornets will get Jack back for this game,
he isn’t a great contributor in terms of (+/-) at -4.5, but it helps
their thin back court.
The Hornets hold a large trend progression/regression advantage so I will note those trends:
Hornets ATS trends due for progression:
- Hornets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
- Hornets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest.
- Hornets are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
- Hornets are 0-7 ATS in the last 7 meetings vs. New York.
Knicks ATS trends due for regression:
- Knicks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
- Knicks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games.
- Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5.
- Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Knicks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
- Knicks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Knicks are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
- Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
- Knicks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
- Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
- Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
- Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
All of are plays are backed by around 40% or less of the public, so
all the lines should move in our favor if they do move, so hold-off for
the best numbers you can get.
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Izzy_Action |
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#12 Posted: 2/17/2012 3:35:04 PM Damn capper, I'm basically on all of your plays. I really didn't look at that Charlotte/Toronto game. I've faded Toronto for the last two games and of course they cover, I'm through with their games. So far I have...
NOH +10 at (-105) for 1 Unit
Cavs +10 at (-105) for 1 Unit
I also have 1 unit on the Bucks ML at +290. The bad thing about my local book is that he doesn't offer any ML plays on teams that are at +8 or above. I haven't played the Bucks +7.5 yet because hopefully with the news of Gooden being out the line moves. It hasn't yet though, which I find odd. GOOD LUCK!
P.S I know I should get a better book so I can get better ML's but locals are so much more easier to deal with than offshore books.
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alecboyh |
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#13 Posted: 2/17/2012 3:37:57 PM  |
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Izzy_Action |
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#14 Posted: 2/17/2012 3:41:12 PM |
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capperintuition |
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#15 Posted: 2/17/2012 3:41:28 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Izzy_Action: Damn capper, I'm basically on all of your plays. I really didn't look at that Charlotte/Toronto game. I've faded Toronto for the last two games and of course they cover, I'm through with their games. So far I have...
NOH +10 at (-105) for 1 Unit
Cavs +10 at (-105) for 1 Unit
I also have 1 unit on the Bucks ML at +290. The bad thing about my local book is that he doesn't offer any ML plays on teams that are at +8 or above. I haven't played the Bucks +7.5 yet because hopefully with the news of Gooden being out the line moves. It hasn't yet though, which I find odd. GOOD LUCK!
P.S I know I should get a better book so I can get better ML's but locals are so much more easier to deal with than offshore books.
Nice, let's sweep the board and make some $. I hear you on the book issue. I used to use my local for the convenience but 2 years ago, when I started hitting my stride in the NBA, I cleared $4,400 in 2 weeks and the book could only pay me $600 of it right away, that's when I have to go offshore for bigger limits and guaranteed payouts. I'm convined they were slow-walking me and trying to get me to lose some of it, as well. Shady.
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capperintuition |
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#16 Posted: 2/17/2012 3:44:54 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Izzy_Action:
I noticed that you favor the ML for the Bobcats more than the rest.
Yeah, that Kleiza injury isn't even accounted for in the line, presumably because he is a bench player. 7-points is a ton for 2 teams that are so equally bad. I give the Raptors less than a home court edge in this one, it is pretty close to a coin-flip so the ML holds more value than the others.
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Stew Baker |
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#17 Posted: 2/17/2012 4:27:08 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by capperintuition:
It was a close call with Granger in, but still enough of an edge to take. I told everyone I talked to before the game via twitter or otherwise that the Nets was still a play.
And, no, what degree of an edge is not completely reliant on the point spread range. I would like to get a home team or a dog if I am going to use a 4.5-point edge because both are about 2% more likely to cover than a road team or a favorite. If I decide to take a dog, I would like it to be a dog of +3.5 or more, because 3 is as close as you get to a key number in basketball.
What I'm looking for a definitive answer to is if +9 was the best number a person could get, should he pass at the 9? It would be helpful if you could regularly post the minimum number a game should be played at, if one can't get better. |
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PDAbets |
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#18 Posted: 2/17/2012 4:36:31 PM
BOL!
with you on the bobcats ML and hornets  |
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capperintuition |
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#19 Posted: 2/17/2012 4:37:58 PM
For today the range is:
Bucks +7.5 and better
Charlotte +7 and better
Cleveland +9 and better
Hornets +7.5 and better
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capperintuition |
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#20 Posted: 2/17/2012 4:40:43 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by PDAbets: always enjoy reading your write up. good work and thank you
BOL!
with you on the bobcats ML and hornets
Much appreciated! I'm glad you enjoy my approach and how I convey it.
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Stew Baker |
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#21 Posted: 2/17/2012 5:22:29 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by capperintuition:
+9 should have been taken on the Nets last night..and I told everyone I talked to that they should still take +9
For today the range is:
Bucks +7.5 and better
Charlotte +7 and better
Cleveland +9 and better
Hornets +7.5 and better
Thanks. |
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dick747 |
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#22 Posted: 2/17/2012 5:46:44 PM QUOTEI'd quit playing at that book until he pays everything. Thats mostlikely what he's doing and it stink! (or better yet play everything for $10 )
Nice Work!!
Originally Posted by capperintuition:
Nice, let's sweep the board and make some $. I hear you on the book issue. I used to use my local for the convenience but 2 years ago, when I started hitting my stride in the NBA, I cleared $4,400 in 2 weeks and the book could only pay me $600 of it right away, that's when I have to go offshore for bigger limits and guaranteed payouts. I'm convined they were slow-walking me and trying to get me to lose some of it, as well. Shady.
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Stew Baker |
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#23 Posted: 2/17/2012 9:11:19 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by capperintuition:
+9 should have been taken on the Nets last night..and I told everyone I talked to that they should still take +9
For today the range is:
Bucks +7.5 and better
Charlotte +7 and better
Cleveland +9 and better
Hornets +7.5 and better
hat
hT |
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Stew Baker |
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#24 Posted: 2/17/2012 9:18:25 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by capperintuition:
+9 should have been taken on the Nets last night..and I told everyone I talked to that they should still take +9
For today the range is:
Bucks +7.5 and better
Charlotte +7 and better
Cleveland +9 and better
Hornets +7.5 and better
Thats helpful. I took Mil +7 1/2, Char +7, Cle +9 1/2, NO +9 1/2, all at less than 10 cents juice. |
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capperintuition |
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#25 Posted: 2/17/2012 9:33:36 PM
Bad things come in pairs, first the bad Blazers beat last night and now the damn deer.
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