It makes sense, when considering the line-up tonight, that there are no lines out yet. Just off the top of my head, you've got several key players in question for each game: Granger for Indiana, Rose for Chicago, KG for Boston, LA for Portland. I'm guessing these lines are going to be very close to the posted lines and if they're not, I'll still have some items to consider if certain players listed above are sitting out tonight.
Any discussion on the numbers I have and what you think we'll finally see when the lines come up is welcome.
It makes sense, when considering the line-up tonight, that there are no lines out yet. Just off the top of my head, you've got several key players in question for each game: Granger for Indiana, Rose for Chicago, KG for Boston, LA for Portland. I'm guessing these lines are going to be very close to the posted lines and if they're not, I'll still have some items to consider if certain players listed above are sitting out tonight.
Any discussion on the numbers I have and what you think we'll finally see when the lines come up is welcome.
Rose is still out (bonus if he plays) but Garnett will most likely be out as well. The bulls front court should have a good night.....and of course revenge. I had the bulls on Sunday and looked like the didn't really get up for that game until the last few minutes. Hopefully off a days rest they'll please the home crown with a win by 10. Boston should come into tonights game tired as well. Starters logged in some heavy minutes last night.
What are your thoughts on the ind/nj total? I'm leaning on the under since Granger is out.
Do you see the bulls game going over 177?
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tight lines again today my friend.
i have one play locked in and that's the bulls-8.
Rose is still out (bonus if he plays) but Garnett will most likely be out as well. The bulls front court should have a good night.....and of course revenge. I had the bulls on Sunday and looked like the didn't really get up for that game until the last few minutes. Hopefully off a days rest they'll please the home crown with a win by 10. Boston should come into tonights game tired as well. Starters logged in some heavy minutes last night.
What are your thoughts on the ind/nj total? I'm leaning on the under since Granger is out.
I don't put a whole lot of value on the totals for the Celtics games if it's "just" KG that is out. That sounds silly, but I feel like Bass is a solid (if not better) replacement on the offensive end, while NOT bringing KG's value on the defensive end (in short - better value for points on both ends). The Celtics seem like they play every other game without one of their starters, but I think all of those additional available minutes have proven to help the bench. Also, the Celtics have averaged more PPG on offense on the road than they do at home at this point in the season.
The Bulls are very deep, too. Like you mentioned - if Rose is out, as great of a player as he is, it seems like everyone else steps up to *nearly* fill that void. I think all signs point to an OVER in this game (that is - if we do see 177 as the posted total). If that's the case, it won't prove strong enough to be considered a "system play," but I still think there's a lot of sings that point to it being a successful play.
It's easier for me to talk about the Boston/Chicago total with injuries because we've seen what both of those two teams can do with reserves in their starting line-ups. When it comes to Indiana, it gets a bit tougher. Indiana has lost five straight games. I will give them a pass for the Miami game, but Cleveland? By double digits? It doesn't appear that anybody is going to be able to fill the scoring and shot-making void with Granger out; I think UNDER is the play, even if it's right on the line that I'm predicting.
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I don't put a whole lot of value on the totals for the Celtics games if it's "just" KG that is out. That sounds silly, but I feel like Bass is a solid (if not better) replacement on the offensive end, while NOT bringing KG's value on the defensive end (in short - better value for points on both ends). The Celtics seem like they play every other game without one of their starters, but I think all of those additional available minutes have proven to help the bench. Also, the Celtics have averaged more PPG on offense on the road than they do at home at this point in the season.
The Bulls are very deep, too. Like you mentioned - if Rose is out, as great of a player as he is, it seems like everyone else steps up to *nearly* fill that void. I think all signs point to an OVER in this game (that is - if we do see 177 as the posted total). If that's the case, it won't prove strong enough to be considered a "system play," but I still think there's a lot of sings that point to it being a successful play.
It's easier for me to talk about the Boston/Chicago total with injuries because we've seen what both of those two teams can do with reserves in their starting line-ups. When it comes to Indiana, it gets a bit tougher. Indiana has lost five straight games. I will give them a pass for the Miami game, but Cleveland? By double digits? It doesn't appear that anybody is going to be able to fill the scoring and shot-making void with Granger out; I think UNDER is the play, even if it's right on the line that I'm predicting.
I don't put a whole lot of value on the totals for the Celtics games if it's "just" KG that is out. That sounds silly, but I feel like Bass is a solid (if not better) replacement on the offensive end, while NOT bringing KG's value on the defensive end (in short - better value for points on both ends). The Celtics seem like they play every other game without one of their starters, but I think all of those additional available minutes have proven to help the bench. Also, the Celtics have averaged more PPG on offense on the road than they do at home at this point in the season.
The Bulls are very deep, too. Like you mentioned - if Rose is out, as great of a player as he is, it seems like everyone else steps up to *nearly* fill that void. I think all signs point to an OVER in this game (that is - if we do see 177 as the posted total). If that's the case, it won't prove strong enough to be considered a "system play," but I still think there's a lot of sings that point to it being a successful play.
It's easier for me to talk about the Boston/Chicago total with injuries because we've seen what both of those two teams can do with reserves in their starting line-ups. When it comes to Indiana, it gets a bit tougher. Indiana has lost five straight games. I will give them a pass for the Miami game, but Cleveland? By double digits? It doesn't appear that anybody is going to be able to fill the scoring and shot-making void with Granger out; I think UNDER is the play, even if it's right on the line that I'm predicting.
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Quote Originally Posted by rlawson:
I don't put a whole lot of value on the totals for the Celtics games if it's "just" KG that is out. That sounds silly, but I feel like Bass is a solid (if not better) replacement on the offensive end, while NOT bringing KG's value on the defensive end (in short - better value for points on both ends). The Celtics seem like they play every other game without one of their starters, but I think all of those additional available minutes have proven to help the bench. Also, the Celtics have averaged more PPG on offense on the road than they do at home at this point in the season.
The Bulls are very deep, too. Like you mentioned - if Rose is out, as great of a player as he is, it seems like everyone else steps up to *nearly* fill that void. I think all signs point to an OVER in this game (that is - if we do see 177 as the posted total). If that's the case, it won't prove strong enough to be considered a "system play," but I still think there's a lot of sings that point to it being a successful play.
It's easier for me to talk about the Boston/Chicago total with injuries because we've seen what both of those two teams can do with reserves in their starting line-ups. When it comes to Indiana, it gets a bit tougher. Indiana has lost five straight games. I will give them a pass for the Miami game, but Cleveland? By double digits? It doesn't appear that anybody is going to be able to fill the scoring and shot-making void with Granger out; I think UNDER is the play, even if it's right on the line that I'm predicting.
Newbie - if that's the case, it looks like I'm going to be stuck without a play tonight. Thanks for the info. I need to remember that a no-play is better than a loss.
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Newbie - if that's the case, it looks like I'm going to be stuck without a play tonight. Thanks for the info. I need to remember that a no-play is better than a loss.
Dang - they must be watching our conversations closely.
well i was able to put some money on the 177 line just before it jumped. just a small wager on the over 177. going to see how the day goes to see if i pound it more or just leave the small wager i locked in. if it goes to 180 i will definitely leave it alone.
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Quote Originally Posted by rlawson:
Dang - they must be watching our conversations closely.
well i was able to put some money on the 177 line just before it jumped. just a small wager on the over 177. going to see how the day goes to see if i pound it more or just leave the small wager i locked in. if it goes to 180 i will definitely leave it alone.
These are the exact lines (both ATS and total) that my book just posted. It looks like, unless there is some drastic movement, there will be no system plays today.
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Quote Originally Posted by NewbieForeva:
My local line is this
701NEW JERSEY+9-105o192-105
702INDIANA-9-105u192-105
Feb 16 - 8:05 PM
703BOSTON+8-105o178½-105
704CHICAGO-8-105u178½-105
Feb 16 - 10:35 PM
705LA CLIPPERS-2½-105o192-105
706PORTLAND+2½-105u192-105
These are the exact lines (both ATS and total) that my book just posted. It looks like, unless there is some drastic movement, there will be no system plays today.
well i was able to put some money on the 177 line just before it jumped. just a small wager on the over 177. going to see how the day goes to see if i pound it more or just leave the small wager i locked in. if it goes to 180 i will definitely leave it alone.
That's the right play. I would have put a little something on 177, too (just for my bankroll, not a system play), but mine opened at 178.5. Perhaps a small teaser is in order to keep myself interested.
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Quote Originally Posted by cashinsports:
well i was able to put some money on the 177 line just before it jumped. just a small wager on the over 177. going to see how the day goes to see if i pound it more or just leave the small wager i locked in. if it goes to 180 i will definitely leave it alone.
That's the right play. I would have put a little something on 177, too (just for my bankroll, not a system play), but mine opened at 178.5. Perhaps a small teaser is in order to keep myself interested.
Between the three games, that's a grand total of 3.0 points that my totals were off from the posted. Even though there's no play today (most likely), it's still an exciting day for this system to see that it's on the right track. A day like this is good for some perspective and to gear up and stay committed for the long haul. I don't mean to gloat - but it's pretty cool.
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Today's Lines / Mine (Actual):
Indiana vs. New Jersey: 192.3 (192)
Chicago vs. Boston: 179.9 (178.5)
Portland vs. LA Clippers: 193.3 (192)
Between the three games, that's a grand total of 3.0 points that my totals were off from the posted. Even though there's no play today (most likely), it's still an exciting day for this system to see that it's on the right track. A day like this is good for some perspective and to gear up and stay committed for the long haul. I don't mean to gloat - but it's pretty cool.
i would rather have KG play and bet the under....guys, dude is old. i mean i was watching him 12 years ago. KG's offense is way off this year. pierce coming off a bad night, and when rondo is your highest scorer and he is one of the worst shooters, there is a problem.
all in all we should all lay it on chicago but 8 points between 2 teams that have history is alot. maybe stay away. and from all games today. very weird slate we have.
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i would rather have KG play and bet the under....guys, dude is old. i mean i was watching him 12 years ago. KG's offense is way off this year. pierce coming off a bad night, and when rondo is your highest scorer and he is one of the worst shooters, there is a problem.
all in all we should all lay it on chicago but 8 points between 2 teams that have history is alot. maybe stay away. and from all games today. very weird slate we have.
i would rather have KG play and bet the under....guys, dude is old. i mean i was watching him 12 years ago. KG's offense is way off this year. pierce coming off a bad night, and when rondo is your highest scorer and he is one of the worst shooters, there is a problem.
all in all we should all lay it on chicago but 8 points between 2 teams that have history is alot. maybe stay away. and from all games today. very weird slate we have.
I'm with you 100%. If KG plays, that is a great thing for the Celtics defense and probably keeps Boston's point total to their average, or a bit below. Eight points IS a lot between two teams that will have a lot of extra minutes to split up between players who want to go out and prove themselves. I may just start working on tomorrow's games and enjoy some Parks & Rec tonight.
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Quote Originally Posted by grantoxowns:
i would rather have KG play and bet the under....guys, dude is old. i mean i was watching him 12 years ago. KG's offense is way off this year. pierce coming off a bad night, and when rondo is your highest scorer and he is one of the worst shooters, there is a problem.
all in all we should all lay it on chicago but 8 points between 2 teams that have history is alot. maybe stay away. and from all games today. very weird slate we have.
I'm with you 100%. If KG plays, that is a great thing for the Celtics defense and probably keeps Boston's point total to their average, or a bit below. Eight points IS a lot between two teams that will have a lot of extra minutes to split up between players who want to go out and prove themselves. I may just start working on tomorrow's games and enjoy some Parks & Rec tonight.
Major lines moves, as cashinsports has thankfully pointed out to us. Here's what I'm seeing now:
Indiana vs. New Jersey: 192.3 (194) = -1.7
Chicago vs. Boston: 179.9 (180.5): -0.6
Portland vs. LA Clippers: 193.3 (189): 4.3
Even with Aldredge out, I'm still hoping this total for the Portland/Clippers game does down. I lean OVER and my system says the same thing. However, I will need another point and a half before I can strongly consider it a system play. Even if it doesn't go down much further, I may play it just for my bankroll's sake. I shall continue to watch and trust the board to have all of the updated information.
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Major lines moves, as cashinsports has thankfully pointed out to us. Here's what I'm seeing now:
Indiana vs. New Jersey: 192.3 (194) = -1.7
Chicago vs. Boston: 179.9 (180.5): -0.6
Portland vs. LA Clippers: 193.3 (189): 4.3
Even with Aldredge out, I'm still hoping this total for the Portland/Clippers game does down. I lean OVER and my system says the same thing. However, I will need another point and a half before I can strongly consider it a system play. Even if it doesn't go down much further, I may play it just for my bankroll's sake. I shall continue to watch and trust the board to have all of the updated information.
I don't put a whole lot of value on the totals for the Celtics games if it's "just" KG that is out. That sounds silly, but I feel like Bass is a solid (if not better) replacement on the offensive end, while NOT bringing KG's value on the defensive end (in short - better value for points on both ends). The Celtics seem like they play every other game without one of their starters, but I think all of those additional available minutes have proven to help the bench. Also, the Celtics have averaged more PPG on offense on the road than they do at home at this point in the season.
The Bulls are very deep, too. Like you mentioned - if Rose is out, as great of a player as he is, it seems like everyone else steps up to *nearly* fill that void. I think all signs point to an OVER in this game (that is - if we do see 177 as the posted total). If that's the case, it won't prove strong enough to be considered a "system play," but I still think there's a lot of sings that point to it being a successful play.
It's easier for me to talk about the Boston/Chicago total with injuries because we've seen what both of those two teams can do with reserves in their starting line-ups. When it comes to Indiana, it gets a bit tougher. Indiana has lost five straight games. I will give them a pass for the Miami game, but Cleveland? By double digits? It doesn't appear that anybody is going to be able to fill the scoring and shot-making void with Granger out; I think UNDER is the play, even if it's right on the line that I'm predicting.
I agree with you on Bass, but he's out tonight.
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Quote Originally Posted by rlawson:
I don't put a whole lot of value on the totals for the Celtics games if it's "just" KG that is out. That sounds silly, but I feel like Bass is a solid (if not better) replacement on the offensive end, while NOT bringing KG's value on the defensive end (in short - better value for points on both ends). The Celtics seem like they play every other game without one of their starters, but I think all of those additional available minutes have proven to help the bench. Also, the Celtics have averaged more PPG on offense on the road than they do at home at this point in the season.
The Bulls are very deep, too. Like you mentioned - if Rose is out, as great of a player as he is, it seems like everyone else steps up to *nearly* fill that void. I think all signs point to an OVER in this game (that is - if we do see 177 as the posted total). If that's the case, it won't prove strong enough to be considered a "system play," but I still think there's a lot of sings that point to it being a successful play.
It's easier for me to talk about the Boston/Chicago total with injuries because we've seen what both of those two teams can do with reserves in their starting line-ups. When it comes to Indiana, it gets a bit tougher. Indiana has lost five straight games. I will give them a pass for the Miami game, but Cleveland? By double digits? It doesn't appear that anybody is going to be able to fill the scoring and shot-making void with Granger out; I think UNDER is the play, even if it's right on the line that I'm predicting.
Its more than pretty cool. Its a great confidence builder for me. When there is a play I feel that its at least a 60% chance of winning. Thx again for setting it up this way.
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Its more than pretty cool. Its a great confidence builder for me. When there is a play I feel that its at least a 60% chance of winning. Thx again for setting it up this way.
big - the line for Portland/Clippers is down to 188.5 at my book. If I can squeeze another point out of it, I'm going to pounce and consider it a two unit play.
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Phillsrok -
big - the line for Portland/Clippers is down to 188.5 at my book. If I can squeeze another point out of it, I'm going to pounce and consider it a two unit play.
big - the line for Portland/Clippers is down to 188.5 at my book. If I can squeeze another point out of it, I'm going to pounce and consider it a two unit play.
i'm watching this line too. wonder why it keeps dropping (started at 194) and this line was set with Alderidge out. is there that much money coming in on the under
this goes to 188 or lower i'm about to do a small pounce on it too lol!
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Quote Originally Posted by rlawson:
Phillsrok -
big - the line for Portland/Clippers is down to 188.5 at my book. If I can squeeze another point out of it, I'm going to pounce and consider it a two unit play.
i'm watching this line too. wonder why it keeps dropping (started at 194) and this line was set with Alderidge out. is there that much money coming in on the under
this goes to 188 or lower i'm about to do a small pounce on it too lol!
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