Posted: 2/13/2012 10:45:45 AM
Took a day off yesterday, due to tight lines. My scoring table went 3-3 on the day.
Minnesota Timberwolves +5.5
Projected score: T-Wolves 96 Magic 94
That's a 7.5-ATS edge for the T-Wolves
Unit Split: 90% spread and 10% ML
Minnesota travels well; they are my #10 road team. On the other hand the Magic struggle at home, they are my #16 home team. Part of the reason for poor home performance is disinterested fans that may be off-put by the rift that Dwight is causing in this Magic organization.
The T-Wolves hold a big advantage at PG and Love can contest Howard for rebounds, that is what will make the difference for Minnesota.
That's enough for the speculative write-up.. in reality all of my plays are based on market value and quantitative analysis, not match-ups and stuff I think COULD happen. I know the NBA like the back of my hand, but it’s all perception and bias. You need cold hard statistics and market recognition to cap the NBA well. We are playing against the logical perception that public plays [and write-ups] are based on.
I do believe in trends, for the simple fact that all ATS trends always progressing/regressing to a mean, because that is how spreads are designed. The Magic hold a slight trend advantage, so i won't post them here because I do not want to confuse anyone as to who the play is on.
I am going to monitor the line a bit more for laying on this game.. most places are still at +5.5 so I am not worried about it ticking the wrong direction.
I have 2 more prospective plays, they are sitting right on the bubble so I will have to see what kind of line moves we get.