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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: NBA Monday.. 0-0 Sunday.. 44-27 YTD (62%)
capperintuition send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
capperintuition
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#1
Posted: 2/13/2012 10:45:45 AM

Took a day off yesterday, due to tight lines.  My scoring table went 3-3 on the day.


Minnesota Timberwolves +5.5

Projected score: T-Wolves 96 Magic 94


That's a 7.5-ATS edge for the T-Wolves


Unit Split: 90% spread and 10% ML


Minnesota travels well; they are my #10 road team. On the other hand the Magic struggle at home, they are my #16 home team.  Part of the reason for poor home performance is disinterested fans that may be off-put by the rift that Dwight is causing in this Magic organization.


The T-Wolves hold a big advantage at PG and Love can contest Howard for rebounds, that is what will make the difference for Minnesota.


That's enough for the speculative write-up.. in reality all of my plays are based on market value and quantitative analysis, not match-ups and stuff I think COULD happen. I know the NBA like the back of my hand, but it’s all perception and bias.  You need cold hard statistics and market recognition to cap the NBA well.  We are playing against the logical perception that public plays [and write-ups] are based on.


I do believe in trends, for the simple fact that all ATS trends always progressing/regressing to a mean, because that is how spreads are designed. The Magic hold a slight trend advantage, so i won't post them here because I do not want to confuse anyone as to who the play is on.


I am going to monitor the line a bit more for laying on this game.. most places are still at +5.5 so I am not worried about it ticking the wrong direction.


I have 2 more prospective plays, they are sitting right on the bubble so I will have to see what kind of line moves we get.

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capperintuition send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
capperintuition
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#2
Posted: 2/13/2012 10:47:21 AM
This is the official post for today, please ignore the duplicate post.
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KktdocT
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KktdocT
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#3
Posted: 2/13/2012 10:52:23 AM
GL.
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capperintuition send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
capperintuition
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#4
Posted: 2/13/2012 11:00:41 AM
You can find my documented record and full scoring table in my covers space.  

Clippers and Suns are my only other prospective plays for today, both have a 4-pt ATS edge right now and those edges will change in relation to the line movements.
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JPSM send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#5
Posted: 2/13/2012 11:06:09 AM
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BravesFan1984 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#6
Posted: 2/13/2012 11:17:50 AM

Thanks for all your work Cap

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alecboyh
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#7
Posted: 2/13/2012 11:52:30 AM
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capperintuition send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
capperintuition
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#8
Posted: 2/13/2012 12:14:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BravesFan1984:

Thanks for all your work Cap


Just happy to be part of the community. I have to do the work to make my picks every day, so I may as well share what I find.
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Stew Baker send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#9
Posted: 2/13/2012 12:29:38 PM
Cap, have you used what you're doing here in prior years? If so,  do the results seem to flatten out at a certain part (parts) of the season, or do they stay pretty consistent from the beginning to the end?                               Thanks.
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capperintuition send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
capperintuition
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#10
Posted: 2/13/2012 1:16:31 PM
Yeah, I've done it for 2 years.. There isn't an issue with returns until around 2-3 weeks left in the season when the playoff picture starts to solidify and teams start to rest players and change their strategy (look forward to the playoffs/look to build for next season.)
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capperintuition send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
capperintuition
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#11
Posted: 2/13/2012 2:49:08 PM
My calculations actually tend to be best during the playoffs, because you get the most effort out of the teams and there is more public action to sway the lines.
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Theone324 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#12
Posted: 2/13/2012 2:50:23 PM
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2Team_Parlay send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#13
Posted: 2/13/2012 2:52:11 PM
got them on the ML


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