8:05 EST - Los Angeles Lakers @ Boston Celtics Under 178 (-115)
Boston holds opponents to the lowest eFG% at 44.56% and Los Angeles hold opponents to the third lowest eFG% at 45.48%. Boston is 15th in opponent free throw rate at 28.9 and Los Angeles is 25th at 24.7 so neither team is prone to excessive fouling. Boston is the second slowest team at 90.6 possessions per game and Los Angeles is the fourth slowest at 91.4 so you can expect a slow half court game tonight. The history between these two teams and the fact this this is their only meeting in Boston this year will also create some "playoff atmosphere" - which tends to encourage an under game. Both teams are very well rested as well so you can expect defensive intensity to be very high tonight. The total is quite low already but it's justified. The O/U is 4-12 in Boston's home games and 0-5 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. I expect a very slow defensive game - under is the play. Lean LA on the side because they have a huge advantage in the paint. The line looks a little fishy though so I'm not touching the Lakers.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
'10-11 NBA: 90-67 (57.3%) +19.90u
'10-11 NBA-P: 30-16 (65.2%) +18.25u
'10-11 NCAAB: 8-1 (88.9%) +7.90u
'10-11 NHL-P: 11-4 (73.3%) +7.00u
'10-11 MLB: 97-66 (59.8%) +31.61u
'10-11 MLB-P: 9-3 (75.0%) +9.22u
'11-12 NCAAF: 16-21 (43.2%) -7.40u
'11-12 NFL: 42-35-1 (54.5%) +5.05u
'11-12 NFL-P: 5-5 (50.0%)-0.40u
'11-12 NCAAF-P: 9-6 (60.0%) +1.65u
'11-12 NCAAB: 7-1 (87.5%) +5.90u
'11-12 NBA: 40-36-1 (53.0%)+1.72u
8:05 EST - Los Angeles Lakers @ Boston Celtics Under 178 (-115)
Boston holds opponents to the lowest eFG% at 44.56% and Los Angeles hold opponents to the third lowest eFG% at 45.48%. Boston is 15th in opponent free throw rate at 28.9 and Los Angeles is 25th at 24.7 so neither team is prone to excessive fouling. Boston is the second slowest team at 90.6 possessions per game and Los Angeles is the fourth slowest at 91.4 so you can expect a slow half court game tonight. The history between these two teams and the fact this this is their only meeting in Boston this year will also create some "playoff atmosphere" - which tends to encourage an under game. Both teams are very well rested as well so you can expect defensive intensity to be very high tonight. The total is quite low already but it's justified. The O/U is 4-12 in Boston's home games and 0-5 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. I expect a very slow defensive game - under is the play. Lean LA on the side because they have a huge advantage in the paint. The line looks a little fishy though so I'm not touching the Lakers.
I think if Vegas wanted a true 50-50 split they should have set LA at +2.5 or lower. The fact that is opened at +3.5 throws up a bit of a red flag. Even though LA has been poor on the road, they have a huge advantage over Boston in the paint and on the boards. Also, Boston has really struggled against good teams (with the exception of a pair of wins against Orlando). Looks a little too easy to take the Lakers.
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Quote Originally Posted by instinctpicks:
How you think the line should be set?
I think if Vegas wanted a true 50-50 split they should have set LA at +2.5 or lower. The fact that is opened at +3.5 throws up a bit of a red flag. Even though LA has been poor on the road, they have a huge advantage over Boston in the paint and on the boards. Also, Boston has really struggled against good teams (with the exception of a pair of wins against Orlando). Looks a little too easy to take the Lakers.
I think if Vegas wanted a true 50-50 split they should have set LA at +2.5 or lower. The fact that is opened at +3.5 throws up a bit of a red flag. Even though LA has been poor on the road, they have a huge advantage over Boston in the paint and on the boards. Also, Boston has really struggled against good teams (with the exception of a pair of wins against Orlando). Looks a little too easy to take the Lakers.
For what it's worth, it dropped to -3 some places. History head to head shows line is correct IMO. GL silly.
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Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:
I think if Vegas wanted a true 50-50 split they should have set LA at +2.5 or lower. The fact that is opened at +3.5 throws up a bit of a red flag. Even though LA has been poor on the road, they have a huge advantage over Boston in the paint and on the boards. Also, Boston has really struggled against good teams (with the exception of a pair of wins against Orlando). Looks a little too easy to take the Lakers.
For what it's worth, it dropped to -3 some places. History head to head shows line is correct IMO. GL silly.
For what it's worth, it dropped to -3 some places. History head to head shows line is correct IMO. GL silly.
Using my point spread rankings it looks right as well. Just doesn't feel right to me for some reason. Staying away and playing the under which looks like a safer play.
Boston relative spread +1.8
Los Angeles relative spread +2.4
Difference: Los Angeles -0.6
Adjust for home court and intangibles: Los Angeles +3
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Quote Originally Posted by instinctpicks:
For what it's worth, it dropped to -3 some places. History head to head shows line is correct IMO. GL silly.
Using my point spread rankings it looks right as well. Just doesn't feel right to me for some reason. Staying away and playing the under which looks like a safer play.
Boston relative spread +1.8
Los Angeles relative spread +2.4
Difference: Los Angeles -0.6
Adjust for home court and intangibles: Los Angeles +3
Lakers are 24th in the league at "transition defense". Rondo will have several fast break layups where he just weaves through the sea of gold as they back pedal on D. This will be the key tonight. Both teams are even in almost every department except the Lakers are turnover prone and don't defend the fast break well and the Celtics don't rebound well or have the bodies to defend Bynum and Gasol. It's fast break points for the Celtics versus points in the paint for the Lakers. Whoever wins this battle wins the game.
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Lakers are 24th in the league at "transition defense". Rondo will have several fast break layups where he just weaves through the sea of gold as they back pedal on D. This will be the key tonight. Both teams are even in almost every department except the Lakers are turnover prone and don't defend the fast break well and the Celtics don't rebound well or have the bodies to defend Bynum and Gasol. It's fast break points for the Celtics versus points in the paint for the Lakers. Whoever wins this battle wins the game.
Rondo is fucking sick. Did anyone just see that backdoor cut pass with the ball and head fake. Just nasty shit. He passes the ball as good as the best point guards I've ever seen. If he can improve his spot up jump shot he'll reach that elite level. He might be the best passer in the league. Still, the fact that he can't shoot means he has to be behind CP and D-Rose on the point guard power charts.
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Rondo is fucking sick. Did anyone just see that backdoor cut pass with the ball and head fake. Just nasty shit. He passes the ball as good as the best point guards I've ever seen. If he can improve his spot up jump shot he'll reach that elite level. He might be the best passer in the league. Still, the fact that he can't shoot means he has to be behind CP and D-Rose on the point guard power charts.
No, I like Phoenix because Lowery is out. He's Houston's best defender by far and when he's not in the line-up their defensive efficiency is like 107 - which is horrible. Houston also off of a few big wins and they're playing on a back to back and their 3rd in 4 nights. Let down spot for Houston.. I think Phoenix will hold home court tonight.
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Quote Originally Posted by davopnz:
do you like houston tonight?
No, I like Phoenix because Lowery is out. He's Houston's best defender by far and when he's not in the line-up their defensive efficiency is like 107 - which is horrible. Houston also off of a few big wins and they're playing on a back to back and their 3rd in 4 nights. Let down spot for Houston.. I think Phoenix will hold home court tonight.
His absence is the reason the line is PHO -3.5 and not Pick'em. If he is really going to play I would expect the line to drop at least a point or two. Since the line isn't moving, it tells me Vegas doesn't expect him to play many minutes. I see the same thing, he participated in shoot-around with the team and they think he's 'good to go'. Given the current line, I find that unlikely.
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Quote Originally Posted by on_the_couch:
By the sound of it Lowry is going to play.
His absence is the reason the line is PHO -3.5 and not Pick'em. If he is really going to play I would expect the line to drop at least a point or two. Since the line isn't moving, it tells me Vegas doesn't expect him to play many minutes. I see the same thing, he participated in shoot-around with the team and they think he's 'good to go'. Given the current line, I find that unlikely.
So many points in the last 2 minutes of each of the first two quarters. Playoff atmosphere games always tend to slow down even more in the second half. Considering doubling down on this under bet depending on the line.
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So many points in the last 2 minutes of each of the first two quarters. Playoff atmosphere games always tend to slow down even more in the second half. Considering doubling down on this under bet depending on the line.
Second half under of 86.5 doesn't provide much added value on my original wager. Sticking with what I got. The second half line tells me that my under wager is the right side. See you all at the ticket window.
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Second half under of 86.5 doesn't provide much added value on my original wager. Sticking with what I got. The second half line tells me that my under wager is the right side. See you all at the ticket window.
Don't worry about it man.. both teams took basically 45 shots in the first half. Noway they take 45 shots each in the second half. Look for this number to cut down by about 7 shots for both teams. 76 total second half shots at 2.4 points (accounts for threes and free-throws) per shot times a 42% shooting percentage equals 76.5 second half points. Total should finish around 169 without overtime.
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Quote Originally Posted by JPSM:
D-Up come on! I have the under 177.5
Don't worry about it man.. both teams took basically 45 shots in the first half. Noway they take 45 shots each in the second half. Look for this number to cut down by about 7 shots for both teams. 76 total second half shots at 2.4 points (accounts for threes and free-throws) per shot times a 42% shooting percentage equals 76.5 second half points. Total should finish around 169 without overtime.
Second half under of 86.5 doesn't provide much added value on my original wager. Sticking with what I got. The second half line tells me that my under wager is the right side. See you all at the ticket window.
I hope you are right my friend!
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Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:
Second half under of 86.5 doesn't provide much added value on my original wager. Sticking with what I got. The second half line tells me that my under wager is the right side. See you all at the ticket window.
I'm on the over, but you may be right. It seems like a lot of teams, especially the Lakers, manage to come out very slow in the second half and take basically the entire 3rd quarter to get going again.
It's going to be close, that's for sure.
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I'm on the over, but you may be right. It seems like a lot of teams, especially the Lakers, manage to come out very slow in the second half and take basically the entire 3rd quarter to get going again.
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