Posted:
#1
'10-11 NBA: 90-67 (57.3%) +19.90u
'10-11 NBA-P: 30-16 (65.2%) +18.25u
'10-11 NCAAB: 8-1 (88.9%) +7.90u
'10-11 NHL-P: 11-4 (73.3%) +7.00u
'10-11 MLB: 97-66 (59.8%) +31.61u
'10-11 MLB-P: 9-3 (75.0%) +9.22u
'11-12 NCAAF: 16-21 (43.2%) -7.40u'11-12 NFL: 42-35-1 (54.5%) +5.05u
'11-12 NCAAB: 5-1 (83.3%) +3.90u
'11-12 NCAAF-P: 9-6 (60.0%) +1.65u
'11-12 NFL-P: 3-2 (60.0%) +0.70u
'11-12 NBA: 14-15 (48.6%) -0.45u
8:05 EST - New Orleans Hornets +11 (-110)
This is the only line that seems way off on the board. I guess after Memphis destroyed a big public team like the Knicks at home in their last game they were bound to be a bit overvalued in this one. Also, after losing Chris Paul, New Orleans has lost almost all of their betting appeal. I'm pretty busy today so I'll keep this simple. New Orleans is the second best team in the NBA in terms of offensive rebounding differential. They pull in offensive boards at a rate of 31% and they hold opponents to 23%. This 8 percent differential is second only to the Chicago Bulls who has a 9 percent differential and it's ahead of the Lakers at 5%. This stat holds about 20% weight in determining the outcome of an NBA game. Stepping back a bit... New Orleans point spread rating is -0.7 and Memphis is -1.7. Now I'm not willing to say New Orleans is a better team than Memphis because I expect Memphis to improve as the season progresses and they'll finish with a better number than New Orleans. But what's clear is that they're not head and shoulders better than the Hornets right now. Using these current numbers the true line for tonight's game is Memphis -3. Again, I don't really believe it's actually this low myself.. I would think if I ran this game again a month from now I would get something in the Memphis -6 range. Either way, at -11, The Griz is way over valued. They have Chicago on deck where they will be revenging a 40 point loss last season so this game falls under a look ahead angle as well. New Orleans plays pretty scrappy on the road and with the prospect of a lot of second chance points on the offensive boards, I think they can hang around in this game and cover this inflated spread.
0
Sounds good to me!
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