Mak's Mercenary Monday

Happy New Year gents, I wish the New Year to be prosperous and profitable for all of you.  Success in all your endeavours.  Apologies for the departure, had a good new years, traveled out of Kenya, had kind of an experience from the movie hangover so I hope you understand why I was missing in action from the forum.  Back now and looking forward to the 2012 NBA season.  Only have one situational play today and my first ml parlay wager of the season.  As always gents, I wish you the best of luck on all your plays.  Kwaheri from Kenya - - - MAK 

MAK'S 2012 SEASON PREVIEWS AND PROJECTIONS

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MILWAUKEE BUCKS @ DENVER NUGGETS

PLAY: BUCKS + 5.0 (-120) & BUCKS ML (+170) - - - 3 UNITS SPREAD & 2 UNITS ML

One thing I want to accentuate right off the bat, this wager is strictly a situational wager.  Many cappers incorporate a lot of different ideas and aspects when it comes to capping NBA games.  Some use a variety of things, either way most cappers always have a specific aspect that they hold higher than others.  Some are situational cappers who look for spots to take advantage of, days rest, look ahead games, cross conference matchups etc.  Others are trend cappers who basically follow trends from past seasons, the current season etc.  I myself am 100% a matchup capper; the only thing going for me is my extensive knowledge of each player, their tendencies and attributes.  This comes with 20 years of experience in the sport...or should I say obsession.  Therefore, I always try to take advantage of matchups, how each player will matchup defensively, who they will go against for a majority of the 48 minutes, the size down low, height, width, shooting ability, speed and stamina.  I weigh matchups very heavily when capping NBA games.  Tonight’s wager has nothing to do with matchups, in fact I would be surprised to actually win this wager.  Denver is the better team; they have the better players, better system, better depth and better offensive strategy and sets.  Nevertheless, this NBA season, I have decided to try and take advantage of the situational spots that have been given to us because of David “The Grinch Who Stole 16 Games” Stern.  This is a spot that I just cannot overlook.  The Milwaukee Bucks have only played 3 games this entire season; they are on 2 days rest which is going to be a rare commodity this season for any NBA team.  They are facing a cross conference opponent who is playing their fifth game in six days...this my fellow covers friends is absolutely ridiculous.  The fatigue factor for the Denver Nuggets will be clearly evident tonight.  The fact that Denver travelled from Los Angles back to Denver, Colorado just a short while ago also comes into my situational system.  That is no easy task for anyone; luckily they were joined by the Lakers who made that same flight.  It was sheer exhilaration that carried them to victory over Los Angeles yesterday (combined with the fact that Kobe was putrid from the field shooting 21% going 6 of 28 from the field)  If it wasn’t for that awful performance Denver would have lost that game straight up as 6 point favourites.  Tonight they are on a back-to-back-to-back.  From the start of the season I promised myself that I would take advantage of this situation when it does arise, especially when the triple back teams were facing teams with decent roster depth and teams with some rest.  Tonight they face the Bucks who may have a full team for the first time in 2 years.  With Mbah a Moute and Delfino back it creates a new depth to this Bucks team that will allow them to incorporate their style of play.  A mixture of defensive bravado and a systematic half-court offensive set.  I like the Milwaukee Bucks a lot; problem is I like the Denver Nuggets more.  As we all know as NBA cappers, there are plenty of times when the better team does not win in the NBA, with all the situational aspects that are incorporated within this game...I think this will be one of those times.  Bucks upset the young, talented and ever promising Denver Nuggets in South Park tonight.

5 UNITS LUC RICHARD “FRESH PRINCE OF WISCONSIN-AIR” MBAH A MOUTE - - -

HEAT ML + CELTICS ML + PACERS ML

4.5 UNITS TO WIN 4 UNITS

This wager basically hinders on the performance of the Indiana Pacers.  In my opinion, I just do not see the Celtics or the Heat dropping their games at home straight up.  Danny Granger had a horrendous shooting night going 4 of 15 from the field against the Detroit Pistons in a loss.  The one thing I love about this young player is historically he bounces back big after a sub-par shooting performance.  Now don’t get me wrong, he is very much a flow player, what I mean by that is don’t be surprised to see him have yet another horrendous shooting output especially against a young Damion James who is 6’6 and can d up to Danny with ease.  What Granger does that is different from the likes of Kobe, is when he has a bad shooting game with only 2 free-throw attempts as he did in Detroit, he goes out the next game and attacks the basket like a beast.  Historically after shooting poorly, Danny comes back the next night and has about 12-14 free throw attempts on average.  As a career 85% free throw shooter, you can expect a majority of those free throws to go down, combined with some field goal attempts, you are looking at about 28-30 points from Granger tonight.  Roy Hibbert will dominate the low block with no real 5 man on New Jersey besides Petro.  Kris Kardashian and Deron Williams will keep New Jersey in it, but not for long.  George Hill and Tyler Hansbrough off the bench had a combined 32 points and 10 rebounds alone in a losing effort in Detroit.  32 and 10 is more serviceable output than the entire New Jersey Nets bench will provide in a single game all year long.  I just do not see New Jersey pulling off a win against the Pacers tonight.  Look for Granger to go off for reasons stated above, Hibbert to dominate the low post offensive block, Paul George to have a big game, Collison and West to provide some offense and George Hill and Tyler Hansbrough to put up similar numbers off the bench tonight.  Indy wins it outright and possibly covers as well.  Norris Cole and his Heat (yes that is right not LeBron or Wade or Bosh but Norris Cole’s Heat) will beat the Hawks with relative ease and The Truth, KG, Jesus and Double R should roll in Bean Town as well.  First ML parlay of the season, hopefully a successful one.
4.5 UNITS JESUS SHUTTLESWORTH - - -   

Thanks for all your work Mak. Good luck tonight.

great work as always. great reads. 

Good luck Mak! 

great work as always. great reads. 

Happy new year Mak.  Sounds like you had a good time.

Hey Mak what do you think about the Dallas Mavericks vs OKC? I really like Dallas. I think they lost yesterday against Minnesota because they might have been looking ahead to this game. I can see them trying to get revenge in a nationally televised game for that buzzer beater they suffered the other day.

Just curious does anyone have a teams record when playing back-to-back-to-back?

You are most welcome my friend, appreciate the appreciation.  As always doctor, best of luck with your wagers tonight.

Wow, someone who actually reads the writeups.  Thanks.  Not big on situational capping as the forefront of NBA wagering, but gotta try this year especially with the 66 game skid, best of luck with your wagers tonight buddy.

placeholder, good to see you again bud, best of luck to you as well.

Good stuff as always Mak, even if a bit longwinded, lol. J/k bud. Your situationals on Den/Mil couldn't be stronger - 3'rd straight after 2 gruelers with LA) & 5 in 6 is insane. And Milky with 2 days off makes it even more powerful. Even with the Nugs depth, youth, talent & at altitude (which tends to give more energy for those tired & the 1's acclimated to it), seems like the books are either undervaluing Mil or overvaluing Den a tad if not both in this spot. Just wonder if the extremity of it combined with the altitude/crowd somehow minimizes the fatigue a bit in a weird way? Anyhow, just random thoughts & think it probably hits for you - may put them & Mia in a 4tm teaser with OKC & Bos. GL & get the $$ my friend - looks like I'm a little longwinded myself

A little bit too good a time if you know what I mean.  Happy new year to you as well.  Am hoping the fatigue factory is prevalent tonight as well.  Fear the dear.  Good luck TDub.

I really don't think I am the right person to ask man.  I may have pegged the Mavs all wrong this year.  Until Lamar Odom and Vince Carter can prove they want to be a part of this ball club and actually provide some decent numbers, I am going to stay away from the Mavs.  I really think Rick Charlisle needs to change up the rotation a bit, I would stick Lamar in the starting 5 to boost his minutes and switch up his mind-frame, even if it means Dirk moving to the 5 spot or Marion moving to the bench.  Something needs to be done here, West as a starting two and Lamar only getting 11 minutes a game??  Something has to give.  My gut says Dallas comes out with gusto, but situationally this is OKC's game to lose.  No play if there ever was one.  Good luck with Dallas, will be rooting for the Mavs to wake the fuck up. 

 

As always D, best of luck to you as well.

Delonte West vs Westbrook is good.

Mak I agree 100% on MIL and this line stuck out to me like a sore thumb. You could give me any NBA team in Milwaukee's shoes and any NBA team in DEN's shoes here with completely different rosters and I'd probably lean MIL's doppleganger team to win SU. Just an impossible situation. Could DEN blow them out and win by more than 2 possessions? Sure, it is MIL we are talking about after all... I love so many parts of their team but they always seem to snakebite me, whenever I love them they crap all over themselves.

Mbah a Moute

...all the best with success this year Mak...

Have a healty and good Happy New Year buddy !!

Best of luck today

Love youre write-ups Mak!! Keep it up!

Great write up